Memory/Semis
Update
Memory/Semis
MU pulled back from overbought. STX running hot. CRSR still a falling knife.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 COOLING - MU corrected from RSI 85 to 60. Still elevated but healthier. |
| Key insight | MU was RSI 76↑ on 02/01, peaked at 85, now pulled back to RSI 60. Correction in progress. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 WATCH | MU | RSI 60 (was 76↑), correcting from overbought, wait for RSI <50 |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | STX | RSI 68, strong run but getting extended |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | CRSR | RSI 28, falling knife, no catalyst |
Legend
- RSI
↓= Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity - RSI
↑= Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback - 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Data (Validated 2026-02-05)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $382.89 | -12.1% | +11.5% | +87.0% | -16.0% | 60 | 🟡 Correcting | 📈 Watch |
| STX | $405.45 | -3.1% | +54.0% | +92.0% | -10.0% | 68 | 🟡 Extended | 🔍 Research |
| CRSR | $5.10 | -0.2% | -14.0% | -28.0% | -71.0% | 28↓ | 🔴 Falling | ❌ Don't Buy |
Analysis
MU - Micron (Correcting from Overbought)
Thesis: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI. Memory supplier to NVIDIA.
| Metric | Value | Change from 02/01 |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $382.89 | Was $437.82 (-12.5%) |
| RSI | 60 | Was 76↑ (corrected!) |
| 30D | +11.5% | Was +40% (narrowing) |
| Peak | $455.50 (01/30) | -16% from peak |
Key Change: MU corrected sharply from its overbought RSI 85 peak (01/29) to RSI 60. The HBM thesis is still intact but the stock got ahead of itself.
- Dropped from $455.50 high to $382.89 = -16% correction
- RSI went from 85 (extreme overbought) to 60 (neutral)
- HBM thesis is STILL correct - this is a healthy pullback
- Now need to wait for better entry, not chase
- Alert at $350 (RSI ~50) for consideration
- Alert at $300 (original thesis) for strong buy
Verdict: 📈 Watch - correction was needed, wait for RSI <50
STX - Seagate Technology (NEW)
Thesis: HDD/SSD storage. AI data center storage demand.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $405.45 |
| RSI | 68 (near overbought) |
| 30D | +54.0% |
- Massive run on AI storage demand
- RSI 68 = getting extended, near overbought
- Similar thesis to MU but different storage segment
- Don't chase at these levels
Verdict: 🔍 Research - interesting AI storage thesis, but extended
CRSR - Corsair Gaming (AVOID)
Thesis: Gaming peripherals. "Cheap" value trap.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $5.10 (01/30 data) |
| RSI | 28↓ (oversold) |
| 30D | -14.0% |
- Still falling, now at $5.10
- Oversold at RSI 28 but that doesn't mean it bounces
- No clear catalyst for recovery
- "Cheap" without a thesis is still a value trap
- -71% from 52-week high = serious structural decline
Verdict: ❌ Avoid - falling knife, no thesis
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| MU corrected 16% from peak | Overbought (RSI 85) resolved to RSI 60 |
| HBM thesis still valid | Memory cycle driven by AI demand is real |
| STX also running on AI storage | Broader memory/storage sector benefiting |
| CRSR still falling | No floor, no catalyst, remove from watchlist |
Mistakes
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Waited too long on MU | Had HBM thesis at $80, didn't act |
| Data was 4 days stale | MU moved -12% in that time |
Open Questions
- What's the right MU entry after this correction?
- Is STX a better play than MU for AI storage?
- When does the HBM supercycle peak?
- Is $350 a good MU target for re-entry?
Next Actions
- Set MU alert at $350 (RSI ~50 pullback entry)
- Set MU alert at $300 (original thesis entry)
- Research STX AI storage thesis
- Remove CRSR from watchlist (no thesis, confirmed falling knife)
- Monitor HBM capacity announcements from Samsung/SK Hynix
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.