Portfolio - Cloud/SaaS

Update

Portfolio - Cloud/SaaS

The survivors of the SaaS flush. EXTREME OVERSOLD - profitable leaders (CRM, INTU, WDAY) RSI 14-18.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 CAPITULATION - Profitable leaders most oversold. CRM RSI 14, INTU RSI 16, WDAY RSI 18.
Key insight The PROFITABLE companies (CRM, INTU, NOW, WDAY) are being sold hardest. This is irrational.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
✅ STRONG BUY CRM, INTU RSI 14-16, profitable, -45%+ from highs
✅ STRONG BUY WDAY, NOW RSI 18-23, profitable, -40%+ from highs
📈 ACCUMULATE ADBE RSI 25, profitable, AI Firefly features
🔍 RESEARCH SNOW, DDOG Growth names, less oversold
🔍 WATCH CRWD, ZS, MDB Security/data, holding up better

Legend

  • RSI ↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
  • RSI ↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
  • 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)

Data

Profitable Leaders (EXTREME OVERSOLD)

Stock Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
CRM $193.75 -4.8% -7.6% -24.4% -25.7% -44.3% 14↓ 🟢 EXTREME ✅ Strong Buy
INTU $432.20 -5.7% -9.5% -31.7% -36.0% -46.9% 16↓ 🟢 EXTREME ✅ Strong Buy
WDAY $173.37 -1.0% -9.0% -17.0% -27.1% -38.9% 18↓ 🟢 EXTREME ✅ Strong Buy
NOW $109.04 -1.5% -10.3% -26.1% -40.4% -48.4% 23↓ 🟢 Oversold ✅ Strong Buy
ADBE $272.32 -3.4% +0.0% -17.9% -19.3% -41.5% 25↓ 🟢 Oversold 📈 Accumulate

Growth Names (Less Oversold)

Stock Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
SNOW $190.68 -0.1% -8.6% -15.0% -31.2% -32.1% 26↓ 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Research
MDB $372.62 +2.2% -10.2% -11.4% +1.0% -16.2% 34 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
ZS $200.54 -0.1% -6.9% -9.9% -40.3% -40.5% 35 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
CRWD $420.23 -3.0% -4.6% -3.9% -20.5% -25.9% 36 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
DDOG $118.71 -6.1% -5.4% -11.2% -26.8% -41.1% 44 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Research

Analysis

The Paradox

The PROFITABLE companies are being sold the hardest:

Stock Profitable? RSI From 52wk High
CRM ✅ Yes 14 (extreme) -44%
INTU ✅ Yes 16 (extreme) -47%
NOW ✅ Yes 23 -48%
WDAY ✅ Yes 18 (extreme) -39%
ADBE ✅ Yes 25 -42%

Meanwhile, CRWD (RSI 36) and MDB (RSI 34) are holding up better.

This is irrational. The market is selling quality.

Why This Is Happening

  1. Sector rotation - All SaaS being sold regardless of fundamentals
  2. Rate sensitivity - Even profitable SaaS trades as "growth"
  3. Tax loss selling - Year-end could have started it
  4. Fund outflows - ETF redemptions force selling
  5. AI narrative - "SaaS is dead, buy chips"

Why The Thesis Works

  1. CRM Einstein AI - Salesforce adding AI across platform
  2. NOW AI agents - ServiceNow automating enterprise workflows
  3. ADBE Firefly - Adobe's generative AI for creative
  4. INTU AI - TurboTax AI, QuickBooks AI
  5. WDAY AI - Workday adding AI to HR/Finance

AI features make SaaS stickier, not obsolete.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
CRM RSI 14 Salesforce, the #1 CRM, at extreme oversold. Irrational.
Profitable names most oversold Market selling quality, not junk
NOW -48% from 52wk high ServiceNow, essential IT software, nearly halved
Growth names (CRWD, MDB) holding better Divergence within sector

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Waiting too long for "perfect" entry RSI 14-16 IS the signal
Only buying ETFs Individual names may outperform

Open Questions

  • Is this THE bottom or does selloff continue?
  • Which name recovers fastest when sentiment shifts?
  • Should we buy individuals or stick with IGV/WCLD?

Verdict

Actually actionable NOW:

If buying individual stocks:

  • ⭐ CRM - RSI 14, Salesforce, #1 CRM, Einstein AI
  • ⭐ INTU - RSI 16, Intuit, consumer + SMB, AI tax prep
  • ⭐ WDAY - RSI 18, Workday, enterprise HR/Finance
  • ⭐ NOW - RSI 23, ServiceNow, IT workflows, AI agents

If buying ETFs instead:

  • ⭐ IGV - RSI 14, includes these names plus diversification

Position sizing:

Approach Allocation
ETF only 3-5% IGV
Individual picks 1% each in CRM, NOW, WDAY
Hybrid 2% IGV + 1% CRM (your favorite)

Wait for more research:

  • SNOW, DDOG (growth, less oversold)
  • CRWD, ZS (security, not as beaten)

Next Actions

  • Decide: ETF (IGV) vs individual stocks vs both
  • Enter position in most oversold (CRM, INTU, WDAY)
  • Set alerts: CRM $180, NOW $100 (add more)
  • Monitor: Fed language, cloud earnings
  • Track: RSI bounce above 30 = confirmation

Commands

cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
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the desk's own tooling
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 3 ScanCloud ETFs Feb 3 ArticleActions & Alerts Log Feb 4 ArticleActions & Alerts Log Feb 2 ScanAI Universe (Expanded) Feb 16 UpdateCloud SaaS Feb 5 ArticleActions & Alerts Log Mar 12 ScanCloud ETFs Scan Mar 3 ArticleMarket Status Report Feb 9 ArticleMarket Status Report Feb 22 UpdateCloud SaaS

No direct external sources are attached to this read.