Ideas ETF Universe Scan
Ideas ETF Universe Scan
Tariff shock + DeepSeek rotation destroyed leveraged tech. FNGU -26%, TECL -23%, WCLD -23%. Gold and dividends held up. SaaS contrarian thesis getting cheaper.
Key Changes vs 02/02
| ETF | 02/02 Price | 02/05 Price | Change | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNGU | $22.51 | $18.48 | -17.9% | FANG+ crushed, 3x amplified the selloff |
| TECL | $118.59 | $96.11 | -19.0% | Tech 3x hammered by rotation out of mega-cap |
| TQQQ | $55.12 | $47.64 | -13.6% | Nasdaq weakness, 3x leveraged pain |
| SOXL | $65.21 | $53.25 | -18.3% | Semis gave back gains after +32% run |
| WCLD | ~$34 | $26.96 | -20.7% | Cloud/SaaS selloff accelerated |
| IGV | ~$95 | $79.67 | -16.1% | Software slaughter, RSI 13 = extremely oversold |
| FNGD | $5.73 | $6.89 | +20.2% | Inverse FANG+ profiting from the carnage |
| SQQQ | $64.87 | $74.58 | +15.0% | Inverse QQQ up big as Nasdaq drops |
| TECS | $16.78 | $20.47 | +22.0% | Inverse tech cashing in on tech selloff |
| GLD | $427.58 | $441.88 | +3.3% | Gold safe haven working, new highs |
| SCHD | $30.01 | $30.97 | +3.2% | Dividend growth running, RSI 84 = overbought |
| JEPI | $58.40 | $58.24 | -0.3% | Income ETF holding steady as designed |
| LABU | $176.15 | $149.04 | -15.4% | Biotech 3x gave back all the +16% gains |
The story: Tech mega-caps got hit hard (DeepSeek rotation, tariff fears). Leveraged tech ETFs amplified the pain. Value, dividends, and gold outperformed. The SaaS/cloud contrarian thesis is getting even cheaper but catching a falling knife.
For Passive Investors (Read This First)
If you work full-time and can't watch stocks daily, here's what matters:
Skip These Entirely
| Category | ETFs | Why Skip |
|---|---|---|
| 3x Leveraged | TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, LABU | Require daily monitoring, decay kills you |
| Inverse/Bear | SQQQ, SOXS, TECS | Guaranteed long-term losses, active trading only |
| 2x Leveraged | QLD, SSO | Less dangerous but still decay over time |
Actually Good for Passive
| Category | ETFs | Why Good |
|---|---|---|
| Index (core) | QQQM, VOO, VTI, SCHB | Set and forget, compound for decades |
| Dividend Growth | SCHD, VYM | Buy, hold, reinvest dividends |
| Sector (unleveraged) | SOXX, SMH, XBI | Fine for long-term thesis plays |
| Income | JEPQ, JEPI | Steady income, less volatile |
Bottom line: This week proved it again. TQQQ down -13% in 30 days, TECL -23%, SOXL -18%. Meanwhile JEPI barely moved (-0.3%) and SCHD is up +10%. Boring wins. Leveraged ETFs are for day traders, not people with jobs.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | Tech leveraged ETFs getting destroyed. Value/dividends outperforming. Gold at new highs. |
| Key insight | IGV RSI 13, WCLD RSI 19 = extreme oversold. Contrarian SaaS thesis getting much cheaper. But don't catch falling knives without a catalyst. |
Action Matrix
| Action | ETFs | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ CONSIDER | QQQM over QQQ | Same thing, 0.05% lower fees. For new buys. |
| 🔍 CONTRARIAN | WCLD, IGV | Cloud/SaaS extremely oversold (RSI 13-19). Getting cheaper fast. Wait for stabilization. |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | JEPQ, JEPI | Income ETFs holding up well in the selloff. Doing their job. |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | SCHD | +10% 30D, RSI 84 overbought. Wait for a pullback to add. |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | GLD | +7% 30D, safe haven working. May be crowded trade. |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | TQQQ, SOXL, TECL | Leveraged tech in freefall. Don't try to catch. |
| ❌ AVOID | SQQQ, SOXS, FNGD | Inverse ETFs up big - tempting but decay kills long-term |
Legend
- RSI
↓= Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity - RSI
↑= Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback - 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Data - ETF Universe (Sorted by 30D)
Index ETFs (The Boring Staples)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Expense | What It Is | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQM | $245.83 | -1.4% | -4.0% | -4.2% | -2.3% | 35 | 0.15% | Nasdaq 100 | 🟡 Pullback | ✅ Use for new buys |
| QQQ | $597.03 | -1.4% | -4.0% | -4.2% | -2.3% | 35 | 0.20% | Nasdaq 100 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔒 Hold existing |
| VOO | $623.10 | -1.2% | -2.1% | -2.1% | +1.4% | 37 | 0.03% | S&P 500 | 🟡 Dip | 🔍 Consider |
| VTI | $333.90 | -1.3% | -2.0% | -2.1% | +1.7% | 36 | 0.03% | Total US Market | 🟡 Dip | 🔍 Consider |
QQQM vs QQQ verdict: If buying more Nasdaq exposure, use QQQM. Same index, 0.05%/year cheaper. Both down ~4% from the selloff but RSI 35 suggests more downside possible before a bounce.
VOO vs SPY: You own SPY (0.09% fee). VOO is 0.03%. On $2.8K that's only ~$1.70/year difference. Not worth tax hit to swap.
3x Leveraged Bull ETFs (The Rockets)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Tracks | Leverage | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | $53.25 | +0.1% | -13.8% | -1.4% | +23.8% | 45 | Semis (SOXX) | 3x | 🔴 Gave back | ⚠️ Volatile |
| TQQQ | $47.64 | -4.3% | -11.8% | -13.4% | -10.7% | 34 | Nasdaq 100 | 3x | 🔴 Falling | ⚠️ Avoid |
| SPXL | $213.47 | -3.8% | -6.4% | -7.2% | +0.6% | 36 | S&P 500 | 3x | 🔴 Down | ⚠️ Caution |
| UPRO | $112.03 | -3.8% | -6.3% | -7.1% | +0.5% | 36 | S&P 500 | 3x | 🔴 Down | ⚠️ Caution |
| QLD | $66.04 | -2.9% | -7.9% | -8.9% | -6.3% | 35 | Nasdaq 100 | 2x | 🔴 Down | ⚠️ Caution |
| SSO | $56.81 | -2.5% | -4.2% | -4.6% | +1.1% | 36 | S&P 500 | 2x | 🟡 Dipping | ⚠️ Caution |
| TNA | $50.21 | -5.3% | -4.6% | -1.6% | +16.1% | 34 | Small Caps (IWM) | 3x | 🟡 Volatile | ⚠️ Caution |
| NUGT | $204.44 | -12.6% | -4.4% | -3.4% | +60.0% | 44 | Gold Miners (GDX) | 3x | 🟡 Volatile | ⚠️ Caution |
| LABU | $149.04 | -10.9% | -10.1% | -6.4% | +26.1% | 42 | Biotech (XBI) | 3x | 🔴 Gave back | ⚠️ Avoid |
| TECL | $96.11 | -5.4% | -16.7% | -22.5% | -22.0% | 32 | Tech (XLK) | 3x | 🔴 Crushed | ⚠️ Avoid |
| FNGU | $18.48 | -7.3% | -18.0% | -25.6% | -37.8% | 25 ↓ | FANG+ | 3x | 🔴 Destroyed | ⚠️ Avoid |
FNGU -26% breakdown: FANG+ index has been hammered by DeepSeek rotation and tariff fears. 3x leverage turned a ~9% decline into a -26% wipeout. FNGU is down -38% over 3 months. This is why leveraged ETFs are dangerous.
SOXL reversal: Was +32% on 02/02, now only -1.4% for 30D. Gave back almost all gains. The 7D shows -13.8%, meaning the damage happened this past week.
3x Leveraged Bear/Inverse ETFs (The Hedges)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Tracks | Leverage | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNGD | $6.89 | +7.2% | +20.5% | +29.8% | +44.7% | 75 ↑ | FANG+ inverse | 3x | 🟢 Surging | ❌ Avoid |
| TECS | $20.47 | +5.5% | +18.8% | +24.9% | +17.6% | 69 | Tech inverse | 3x | 🟢 Surging | ❌ Avoid |
| SQQQ | $74.58 | +4.3% | +12.6% | +13.7% | +6.8% | 65 | QQQ inverse | 3x | 🟢 Up | ❌ Avoid |
| LABD | $21.00 | +11.1% | +9.4% | +0.0% | -30.7% | 56 | Biotech inverse | 3x | 🟡 Bouncing | ❌ Avoid |
| TZA | $6.69 | +5.4% | +4.2% | +0.3% | -18.8% | 65 | Small caps inverse | 3x | 🟡 Bouncing | ❌ Avoid |
| SOXS | $2.24 | +0.4% | +13.7% | -5.9% | -36.4% | 52 | Semis inverse | 3x | 🟡 Bouncing | ❌ Avoid |
| DUST | $5.88 | +12.6% | +2.3% | -8.8% | -49.7% | 51 | Gold miners inverse | 3x | 🟡 Bouncing | ❌ Avoid |
Inverse ETF reality: FNGD +30% and TECS +25% in 30 days look tempting. But zoom out: DUST is -50% over 3M. These decay to zero. Short-term hedging ONLY. The ones surging now (FNGD, TECS, SQQQ) will decay once the selloff stabilizes.
Income ETFs (The Dividend Machines)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Yield | Expense | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHD | $30.97 | -0.1% | +3.9% | +10.3% | +18.0% | 84 ↑ | ~3.5% | 0.06% | 🟢 Overbought | ⚠️ Wait for pullback |
| VYM | $151.99 | -0.5% | +1.4% | +3.6% | +9.6% | 65 | ~3% | 0.06% | 🟢 Steady | 🔍 Watch |
| JEPI | $58.24 | -0.6% | +0.0% | +1.1% | +5.6% | 52 | ~8% | 0.35% | 🟢 Rock solid | 🔍 Research |
| JEPQ | $56.93 | -1.3% | -3.4% | -2.5% | +1.2% | 38 | ~10% | 0.35% | 🟡 Dipping | 🔍 Research |
Income ETF thesis:
- JEPI barely moved (-0.3% since 02/02) while tech got crushed. This is the point - stability.
- JEPQ down -2.5% because it tracks Nasdaq names, but the covered call income cushions the blow.
- SCHD is the star: +10% 30D, +18% 3M. But RSI 84 is overbought - don't chase here.
- The rotation from growth to value is the story. Dividends winning.
Sector ETFs (Tech Flavors)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Expense | Focus | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $441.88 | -2.7% | -0.7% | +6.9% | +20.7% | 55 | 0.40% | Gold | 🟢 New highs | 🔍 Safe haven |
| VNQ | $90.82 | -0.1% | +0.0% | +1.6% | +3.1% | 46 | 0.12% | Real Estate | 🟢 Steady | 🔍 Watch |
| GDX | $92.44 | -6.3% | -1.9% | +0.3% | +31.6% | 45 | 0.51% | Gold miners | 🟡 Pulling back | 🔍 Watch |
| IWM | $255.83 | -1.8% | -1.5% | -0.1% | +6.8% | 35 | 0.19% | Small caps | 🟡 Dipping | 🔍 Watch |
| SMH | $381.07 | -0.2% | -5.5% | -1.7% | +8.9% | 42 | 0.35% | Semis | 🟡 Pulling back | 🔍 Watch (own SOXX) |
| XBI | $120.72 | -3.6% | -3.2% | -1.1% | +10.8% | 43 | 0.35% | Biotech | 🟡 Dipping | 🔍 Watch |
| SLV | $66.69 | -15.8% | -11.6% | -9.5% | +53.1% | 40 | 0.50% | Silver | 🔴 Sold off | 🔍 Watch |
| XLK | $135.63 | -1.8% | -5.7% | -7.5% | -6.0% | 32 | 0.09% | Tech (S&P) | 🔴 Falling | 🔍 Watch |
| VGT | $708.53 | -1.8% | -5.3% | -7.6% | -7.0% | 31 ↓ | 0.10% | Tech (Vanguard) | 🔴 Falling | 🔍 Watch |
| FTEC | $211.33 | -1.8% | -5.2% | -7.5% | -6.9% | 31 ↓ | 0.08% | Tech (Fidelity) | 🔴 Falling | 🔍 Watch |
Gold is the safe haven play. GLD +7% 30D, +21% 3M while tech is bleeding. SLV had a massive single-day drop (-15.8%) - likely tariff-related commodity volatility.
Tech sector ETFs (XLK, VGT, FTEC) all down ~7.5% and hitting RSI 31-32. Getting oversold but may have more downside.
Cloud/SaaS ETFs (The Contrarian Thesis)
| ETF | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | Expense | Focus | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCLD | $26.96 | -4.2% | -10.5% | -23.1% | -22.3% | 19 ↓ | 0.45% | Cloud-native SaaS (pure-play) | 🔴 Crushed | 🔍 Contrarian (wait) |
| CLOU | $18.91 | -3.2% | -8.3% | -16.8% | -19.1% | 25 ↓ | 0.68% | Cloud computing | 🔴 Crushed | 🔍 Watch |
| SKYY | $108.01 | -3.5% | -9.3% | -17.2% | -21.1% | 23 ↓ | 0.60% | Cloud (includes infra) | 🔴 Crushed | 🔍 Watch |
| IGV | $79.67 | -5.0% | -11.8% | -24.1% | -27.1% | 13 ↓ | 0.40% | Software (broad) | 🔴 Destroyed | 🔍 Contrarian (wait) |
The Contrarian Thesis (Your Edge) - Updated:
"AI is accelerating boring SaaS, not killing it. The market doesn't understand this."
What changed since 02/02:
| ETF | What's In It | Risk | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCLD | Pure unprofitable cloud-native SaaS (ZM, DDOG, SNOW) | Highest - RSI 19, freefall | Highest if SaaS recovers |
| IGV | Profitable + growth software (ADBE, CRM, INTU + growth) | High - RSI 13, even worse selloff | Safer names but more beaten |
If your thesis is right:
The Big Picture
Performance Leaderboard (30D)
| Rank | ETF | 30D | Category |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FNGD | +29.8% | 3x Inverse FANG+ |
| 2 | TECS | +24.9% | 3x Inverse Tech |
| 3 | SQQQ | +13.7% | 3x Inverse QQQ |
| 4 | SCHD | +10.3% | Dividend Growth |
| 5 | GLD | +6.9% | Gold |
| 6 | VYM | +3.6% | Dividend |
| 7 | VNQ | +1.6% | Real Estate |
| 8 | JEPI | +1.1% | Income |
What's working: Inverse/bear ETFs (short-term only), dividends, gold, real estate. The defensive rotation is clear.
What's NOT working: Leveraged tech (FNGU -26%, TECL -23%), cloud/SaaS (WCLD -23%, IGV -24%), biotech leverage (LABU -6%).
Leveraged ETF Deep Dive (Why They're Dangerous)
DO NOT buy and hold leveraged ETFs long-term. Here's why:
The Math Problem (Volatility Decay)
Scenario: Market goes up 10%, then down 10% (flat round trip)
Regular ETF (QQQ):
$100 -> +10% -> $110 -> -10% -> $99 (lost 1%)
3x Leveraged (TQQQ):
$100 -> +30% -> $130 -> -30% -> $91 (lost 9%)
You lost 9x more on the same round trip.
In choppy/sideways markets, this decay compounds DAILY. Over months, you can lose 20-30% even if the underlying index is flat.
Real Example: This Week
| ETF | Underlying Move | Leveraged Move | Amplification |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ -4.2% | TQQQ -13.4% | 3.2x (includes decay) | — |
| XLK -7.5% | TECL -22.5% | 3.0x | — |
| FANG+ ~-9% | FNGU -25.6% | 2.8x (decay eating returns) | — |
Why This Kills Passive Investors
| Problem | Impact for Full-Time Worker |
|---|---|
| Daily reset | Decay happens whether you watch or not |
| Need stop-losses | Can trigger at 3am, you're asleep |
| Gap downs | Market opens -5%, your 3x is down -15% before you wake up |
| Can't DCA | DCA into decaying asset = throwing money away |
| Emotional | -30% days are normal, hard to ignore at work |
If You Absolutely Must (Not Recommended)
- Position size: Max 1% of portfolio (gamble money)
- Time horizon: Days to weeks, NOT months
- Set alerts: Price drops 10%, you're OUT
- Don't average down: It's decaying, not "on sale"
- Take profits fast: +25%? Sell half. +40%? Sell all.
- Accept total loss: Treat it like a casino bet
Better Alternative for Semis Bull
- No decay
- Can hold forever
- DCA works
- Sleep at night
- SOXX has compounded well without leverage
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| QQQM = QQQ but 0.05% cheaper | Use QQQM for new Nasdaq buys |
| IGV RSI 13, WCLD RSI 19 | SaaS/cloud extremely oversold - contrarian entry approaching |
| FNGU -26% 30D, -38% 3M | Leveraged FANG+ destroyed, proves decay danger |
| SCHD +10% 30D, RSI 84 | Dividend growth outperforming but overbought now |
| GLD +7% 30D, +21% 3M | Gold safe haven thesis confirmed |
| JEPI flat while tech -7.5% | Income ETFs doing exactly what they should |
| SLV -16% single day | Silver extremely volatile on tariff news |
For Passive / Working Professionals
Why leveraged ETFs are extra dangerous if you can't monitor daily:
Sector concentration risk: If you're already exposed to semis (e.g. via employment or other holdings), SOXL triples that risk.
Can't monitor: Full-time workers can't watch SOXL gap down 15% at market open.
Stress: -20% days are normal for 3x ETFs. Not worth the mental load if you can't actively trade.
What makes sense for passive investors:
The working professional's edge: DCA into boring index funds while traders stress over TQQQ decay. Time in market > timing the market.
Interesting Finds
| ETF | Why Interesting | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| IGV | RSI 13 = most oversold ETF in scan. Profitable software names (ADBE, CRM) at deep discount. | Falling knife - wait for stabilization |
| WCLD | RSI 19. Contrarian SaaS thesis getting much cheaper entry | Unprofitable growth, could fall more |
| JEPI | Barely moved while everything sold off. Income thesis validated. | Caps upside in bull markets |
| SCHD | +10% 30D, +18% 3M, dividend growth king | RSI 84 overbought - don't chase |
| GLD | +21% 3M, safe haven confirmed | May be crowded after tariff fears |
| SLV | +53% 3M but -16% single day | Extremely volatile, not for passive |
Verdict on This Scan
Actually actionable now:
Watch closely (getting interesting):
Wait for pullback:
- SCHD: +10% 30D, RSI 84. Great ETF but overbought now. Wait for dip.
Research more:
Pass entirely:
Next Actions
- Consider QQQM for future Nasdaq buys
- Research JEPI for income allocation (validated by this selloff)
- Set alert: IGV RSI crosses above 30 = potential contrarian entry
- Set alert: WCLD RSI crosses above 30 = potential contrarian entry
- Wait for SCHD RSI pullback below 70 before adding
- Understand SCHD vs VYM for dividend exposure
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Related
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