Market Pulse
Market Pulse
Market attempting recovery from Feb selloff — VOO/QQQ stabilizing near SMA (RSI 42-48), GLD breaking out to new highs (+5.6% 30D, RSI 58), VIXY elevated at RSI 62 signaling persistent fear. No all-clear yet.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 STABILIZING — VOO RSI 48 (was 40 on 2/16), QQQ RSI 42 (was 37). Index ETFs bouncing but still below prior highs. Recovery attempt underway. |
| Risk appetite | 🟡 Mixed — VIXY still elevated RSI 62. GLD breaking out (RSI 58, ATH territory). TLT bid (RSI 64). Flight-to-safety rotation ongoing alongside equity bounce. |
| Key insight | Bounce off Feb lows but no conviction: VOO/QQQ near SMA (within ±1%), VIXY not collapsing. Gold and bonds still catching bids = market not fully risk-on. Oversold growth names (META RSI 26, AMZN RSI 25) offer highest upside if risk appetite returns. |
Asset Class Overview (Validated 2026-02-22)
Equities
| ETF | Name | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOO | S&P 500 | $634.02 | 48 | $633.74 | +0.04% | 🟡 At SMA — neutral |
| QQQ | Nasdaq | $608.81 | 42 | $613.99 | -0.8% | 🟡 Slightly below SMA |
| IWM | Small Cap | $262.96 | 49 | $263.63 | -0.3% | 🟡 At SMA (data: Feb 13) |
| DIA | Dow | $493.70 | 53 | $491.98 | +0.4% | 🟢 Above SMA (data: Feb 3) |
| EEM | EM | $60.55 | 69 | $58.96 | +2.7% | 🟢 Outperforming (data: Feb 9) |
Pattern: VOO essentially at SMA — down from overbought but not broken. QQQ slightly below SMA, still recovering. Small caps and Dow holding near SMA. EM continuing to outperform.
Commodities
| ETF | Asset | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | Gold | $468.62 | 58 | $460.63 | +1.7% | 🟢 Breaking out, +5.6% 30D |
Pattern: Gold accelerating to new highs. +5.6% over 30 days with RSI 58 — still has room to run before overbought.
Bonds & Volatility
| ETF | Type | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | Long Bonds | $89.72 | 64 | $87.52 | +2.5% | 🟢 Flight to safety bid (data: Feb 13) |
| VIXY | VIX | $28.31 | 62 | $26.49 | +6.9% | 🟠 Elevated fear, not collapsing |
Market Internals
| Signal | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| VIXY (VIX) | $28.31 RSI 62 | 🟠 Still elevated — fear hasn't resolved |
| VOO RSI | 48 | 🟡 Recovering (was 40 on 2/16) |
| QQQ RSI | 42 | 🟡 Below 50 — tech still lagging |
| Gold | $468.62, RSI 58 | 🟢 Breakout — safe haven demand strong |
| TLT | $89.72, RSI 64 | 🟢 Bonds still bid = risk-off not fully resolved |
| EEM RSI | 69 | 🟢 EM rotation continuing |
| VOO vs SMA | +0.04% | 🟡 Right at SMA — key level to watch |
Sector Rotation Map
| Rotation | From | To | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe haven demand | Risk assets | Gold/Bonds | GLD +5.6% 30D, TLT RSI 64 |
| EM outperformance | US equities | Emerging markets | EEM RSI 69, +5.9% 30D |
| Growth recovery attempt | Oversold | Stabilizing | META/AMZN RSI 25-26, bouncing off lows |
| Nasdaq lagging | — | S&P > Nasdaq | VOO RSI 48 vs QQQ RSI 42 |
Actionable Signals
| Signal | Current | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 GLD | RSI 58, $468.62, +5.6% 30D | Momentum intact | ACCUMULATE — Gold breakout continuing |
| 🟢 EEM | RSI 69, +5.9% 30D | EM leadership | HOLD/ADD — EM diverging positively |
| 🟡 VOO | RSI 48, at SMA | Hold SMA | HOLD — Watch for reclaim or rejection |
| 🟡 QQQ | RSI 42, -0.8% vs SMA | Reclaim SMA | WATCH — Needs to clear $614 SMA |
| 🟠 VIXY | RSI 62, elevated | RSI > 70 = danger, RSI < 40 = all-clear | MONITOR — Not resolved; don't go heavy long |
| 🟠 TLT | RSI 64, bond bid | RSI > 70 = extreme fear | MONITOR — Bonds still catching bids = risk-off |
Key Changes vs 2026-02-16
| Metric | Feb 16 | Feb 22 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOO RSI | 40 | 48 | 🟢 +8 pts — recovering |
| QQQ RSI | 37 | 42 | 🟢 +5 pts — still lagging |
| VIXY RSI | 62 | 62 | 🟡 Unchanged — fear persistent |
| GLD price | $462.62 | $468.62 | 🟢 +$6 — breakout continuing |
| TLT RSI | 64 | 64 | 🟡 Unchanged — bonds still bid |
| EEM RSI | 69 | 69 | 🟡 Unchanged — EM holding gains |
Bottom line: Index ETFs bouncing off Feb lows but no decisive breakout. VOO essentially at SMA, QQQ slightly below. VIXY unchanged at RSI 62 — the fear hasn't resolved. Gold and bonds still catching bids. This is a tentative recovery, not an all-clear. Best opportunity: oversold growth names (see AI scan) if VIXY starts declining.
Data Notes
| Ticker | Data As Of | Staleness |
|---|---|---|
| VOO | Feb 20 | Fresh |
| QQQ | Feb 20 | Fresh |
| GLD | Feb 20 | Fresh |
| IWM | Feb 13 | 1 week stale |
| VIXY | Feb 13 | 1 week stale |
| TLT | Feb 13 | 1 week stale |
| EEM | Feb 9 | 2 weeks stale |
| DIA | Feb 3 | 3 weeks stale |
The Gold
Key Discoveries:
- VOO/QQQ at or just below SMA — the Feb selloff appears to have found a floor, but no decisive reclaim yet
- GLD breaking out with RSI 58 — momentum still intact, +5.6% 30D with room before overbought
- VIXY stubbornly at RSI 62 — market is not pricing in a clean resolution; protection still being bought
Mistakes to Avoid:
Open Questions:
Related
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