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Market Pulse

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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 42 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulseported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-02-22-market-pulse.mdscan slugmarket-pulsesource typescan-archive

Market attempting recovery from Feb selloff — VOO/QQQ stabilizing near SMA (RSI 42-48), GLD breaking out to new highs (+5.6% 30D, RSI 58), VIXY elevated at RSI 62 signaling persistent fear. No all-clear yet.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 STABILIZING — VOO RSI 48 (was 40 on 2/16), QQQ RSI 42 (was 37). Index ETFs bouncing but still below prior highs. Recovery attempt underway.
Risk appetite 🟡 Mixed — VIXY still elevated RSI 62. GLD breaking out (RSI 58, ATH territory). TLT bid (RSI 64). Flight-to-safety rotation ongoing alongside equity bounce.
Key insight Bounce off Feb lows but no conviction: VOO/QQQ near SMA (within ±1%), VIXY not collapsing. Gold and bonds still catching bids = market not fully risk-on. Oversold growth names (META RSI 26, AMZN RSI 25) offer highest upside if risk appetite returns.

Asset Class Overview (Validated 2026-02-22)

Equities

ETF Name Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status
VOO S&P 500 $634.02 48 $633.74 +0.04% 🟡 At SMA — neutral
QQQ Nasdaq $608.81 42 $613.99 -0.8% 🟡 Slightly below SMA
IWM Small Cap $262.96 49 $263.63 -0.3% 🟡 At SMA (data: Feb 13)
DIA Dow $493.70 53 $491.98 +0.4% 🟢 Above SMA (data: Feb 3)
EEM EM $60.55 69 $58.96 +2.7% 🟢 Outperforming (data: Feb 9)

Pattern: VOO essentially at SMA — down from overbought but not broken. QQQ slightly below SMA, still recovering. Small caps and Dow holding near SMA. EM continuing to outperform.

Commodities

ETF Asset Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status
GLD Gold $468.62 58 $460.63 +1.7% 🟢 Breaking out, +5.6% 30D

Pattern: Gold accelerating to new highs. +5.6% over 30 days with RSI 58 — still has room to run before overbought.

Bonds & Volatility

ETF Type Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status
TLT Long Bonds $89.72 64 $87.52 +2.5% 🟢 Flight to safety bid (data: Feb 13)
VIXY VIX $28.31 62 $26.49 +6.9% 🟠 Elevated fear, not collapsing

Market Internals

Signal Status Implication
VIXY (VIX) $28.31 RSI 62 🟠 Still elevated — fear hasn't resolved
VOO RSI 48 🟡 Recovering (was 40 on 2/16)
QQQ RSI 42 🟡 Below 50 — tech still lagging
Gold $468.62, RSI 58 🟢 Breakout — safe haven demand strong
TLT $89.72, RSI 64 🟢 Bonds still bid = risk-off not fully resolved
EEM RSI 69 🟢 EM rotation continuing
VOO vs SMA +0.04% 🟡 Right at SMA — key level to watch

Sector Rotation Map

Rotation From To Evidence
Safe haven demand Risk assets Gold/Bonds GLD +5.6% 30D, TLT RSI 64
EM outperformance US equities Emerging markets EEM RSI 69, +5.9% 30D
Growth recovery attempt Oversold Stabilizing META/AMZN RSI 25-26, bouncing off lows
Nasdaq lagging S&P > Nasdaq VOO RSI 48 vs QQQ RSI 42

Actionable Signals

Signal Current Trigger Action
🟢 GLD RSI 58, $468.62, +5.6% 30D Momentum intact ACCUMULATE — Gold breakout continuing
🟢 EEM RSI 69, +5.9% 30D EM leadership HOLD/ADD — EM diverging positively
🟡 VOO RSI 48, at SMA Hold SMA HOLD — Watch for reclaim or rejection
🟡 QQQ RSI 42, -0.8% vs SMA Reclaim SMA WATCH — Needs to clear $614 SMA
🟠 VIXY RSI 62, elevated RSI > 70 = danger, RSI < 40 = all-clear MONITOR — Not resolved; don't go heavy long
🟠 TLT RSI 64, bond bid RSI > 70 = extreme fear MONITOR — Bonds still catching bids = risk-off

Key Changes vs 2026-02-16

Metric Feb 16 Feb 22 Change
VOO RSI 40 48 🟢 +8 pts — recovering
QQQ RSI 37 42 🟢 +5 pts — still lagging
VIXY RSI 62 62 🟡 Unchanged — fear persistent
GLD price $462.62 $468.62 🟢 +$6 — breakout continuing
TLT RSI 64 64 🟡 Unchanged — bonds still bid
EEM RSI 69 69 🟡 Unchanged — EM holding gains

Bottom line: Index ETFs bouncing off Feb lows but no decisive breakout. VOO essentially at SMA, QQQ slightly below. VIXY unchanged at RSI 62 — the fear hasn't resolved. Gold and bonds still catching bids. This is a tentative recovery, not an all-clear. Best opportunity: oversold growth names (see AI scan) if VIXY starts declining.


Data Notes

Ticker Data As Of Staleness
VOO Feb 20 Fresh
QQQ Feb 20 Fresh
GLD Feb 20 Fresh
IWM Feb 13 1 week stale
VIXY Feb 13 1 week stale
TLT Feb 13 1 week stale
EEM Feb 9 2 weeks stale
DIA Feb 3 3 weeks stale

The Gold

Key Discoveries:

  • VOO/QQQ at or just below SMA — the Feb selloff appears to have found a floor, but no decisive reclaim yet
  • GLD breaking out with RSI 58 — momentum still intact, +5.6% 30D with room before overbought
  • VIXY stubbornly at RSI 62 — market is not pricing in a clean resolution; protection still being bought

Mistakes to Avoid:

  • Don't interpret the VOO bounce as a trend reversal until VIXY drops below RSI 50 and QQQ reclaims SMA
  • Don't chase EEM without acknowledging the data is 2 weeks stale

Open Questions:

  • Will QQQ reclaim its SMA or fail and re-test Feb lows?
  • Is VIXY elevation driven by geomacro concerns or just residual tech weakness?
  • Will GLD RSI reach 70+ before consolidating?
9 events

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