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DIADXYEEMGLDHYGIWMLQDQQQVIXYVOO
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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 55 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulseported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-03-market-pulse.mdscan slugmarket-pulsesource typescan-archive

Market rolling over: VOO dropped to RSI 39 and broke below SMA, QQQ at RSI 43 still below SMA, VIXY spiking to RSI 65 — fear is back. GLD holding +21% 30D, TLT bid at RSI 61. This is not a dip — this is a breakdown attempt.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 RISK-OFF ACCELERATING — VOO RSI dropped from 58 (2/26) to 39 today, now -0.9% below SMA. QQQ RSI 43, -0.9% below SMA. VIXY surging (RSI 65, +7.1% 7D). Equities are breaking down.
Risk appetite 🔴 High fear — VIXY RSI 65 and rising, TLT RSI 61 still bid, GLD holding new highs. All three safe havens catching bids simultaneously = macro risk-off, not sector rotation.
Key insight VOO shed ~19 RSI points in 5 days (58 → 39). That's a sharp deterioration. GLD is now +21% 30D and still at RSI 52 — the gold breakout has legs. HYG/LQD/DXY data unavailable (no files). Watch whether VOO holds $620 and QQQ holds $590 — losing those levels would confirm a deeper correction.

Asset Class Overview (Validated 2026-03-03)

Equities

ETF Name Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Status
VOO S&P 500 $625.50 39 $631.48 -0.9% -1.1% -0.3% 🟡 Below SMA — weakening
QQQ Nasdaq $601.49 43 $607.09 -0.9% -1.1% -3.4% 🟡 Below SMA — lagging
IWM Small Cap $263.99 63 $262.92 +0.4% -0.2% +7.1% 🟢 Above SMA (data: Feb 26)
DIA Dow $493.70 53 $491.98 +0.4% +0.7% +4.7% 🟢 Above SMA (data: Feb 3)
EEM EM $60.55 69 $58.96 +2.7% +2.1% +10.6% 🟢 EM outperforming (data: Feb 9)

Pattern: VOO and QQQ breaking down — both below SMA and RSI collapsing. Small caps (IWM) and EM (EEM) showing relative strength, but IWM/EEM data is stale. The Nasdaq has lost -3.4% over 30 days while IWM is +7.1% — notable divergence if IWM data is accurate.

Commodities

ETF Asset Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Status
GLD Gold $468.08 52 $465.00 +0.7% -1.4% +21.0% 🟢 Extended breakout, RSI cooling

Pattern: Gold is up +21% over 30 days — extraordinary run. RSI 52 after a -1.4% week means it's digesting gains, not collapsing. This is a healthy consolidation within a strong trend. Still above SMA.

Bonds & Volatility

ETF Type Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Status
TLT Long Bonds $89.43 61 $88.71 +0.8% -0.2% +2.1% 🟢 Flight-to-safety bid (down from RSI 78)
VIXY VIX $29.53 65 $27.40 +7.8% +7.1% -2.1% 🟠 Fear spiking — elevated and rising

Market Internals

Signal Status Implication
VIXY $29.53, RSI 65, +7.1% 7D 🟠 Fear rising rapidly — don't fight this
VOO RSI 39 (was 58 on 2/26) 🔴 Lost 19 RSI pts in 5 days — sharp deterioration
QQQ RSI 43, below SMA 🟡 Tech still lagging, -3.4% 30D
GLD $468, RSI 52, +21% 30D 🟢 Safe haven demand still dominant
TLT $89.43, RSI 61 🟢 Bonds bid — duration buying continues
IWM RSI 63 (stale Feb 26) 🟡 Small caps showed relative strength — watch if it holds
EEM RSI 69 (stale Feb 9) 🟢 EM rotation still in play, but data is 3+ weeks old
VOO vs SMA -0.9% 🔴 Broken below SMA — key support level lost

Sector Rotation Map

Rotation From To Evidence
Safe haven surge Risk equities Gold + Bonds GLD +21% 30D, TLT bid, VIXY spiking
EM resilience US equities Emerging markets EEM +10.6% 30D vs VOO -0.3%
Nasdaq weakness — S&P > Nasdaq VOO -0.3% 30D vs QQQ -3.4% 30D
Small cap resilience — IWM diverging IWM +7.1% 30D vs QQQ -3.4% (stale data caveat)
Fear trade Complacency Defensive VIXY RSI 65 = options market pricing in more pain

Tier Analysis

Oversold (RSI 25–40):

  • VOO (RSI 39) — the broad market is approaching oversold; watch for bounce or break

Neutral (RSI 40–60):

  • QQQ (RSI 43), GLD (RSI 52), TLT (RSI 61 — upper neutral), DIA (RSI 53)

Strong/Overbought (RSI 60+):

  • IWM (RSI 63 — stale), EEM (RSI 69 — stale), VIXY (RSI 65 — rising fear)

Entry Zones

Stock Entry Zone Thesis
GLD $455–465 Any pullback to SMA is a buy — +21% 30D momentum with RSI only 52; safe haven demand structurally elevated
VOO $610–620 If RSI breaks below 35, approach capitulation territory; core position add zone for long-term holders
QQQ $585–595 Tech at -3.4% 30D, RSI 43 — not yet oversold but approaching; wait for RSI <35 for conviction entry
TLT $87–89 Bonds still bid; if equity selloff deepens, TLT breaks to $92+

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
GLD 🟢 📈 Accumulate RSI 52 after +21% 30D = healthy consolidation. Still in uptrend. Add on dips to SMA.
TLT 🟢 🔒 Hold RSI 61, bonds bid. Came off RSI 78 (2/26) — healthier now. Hold as hedge.
EEM 🟢 🔒 Hold RSI 69, +10.6% 30D. EM is diverging positively. Data stale but trend intact.
IWM 🟢 🔍 Watch RSI 63, +7.1% 30D. Small cap relative strength notable — verify with fresh data.
VOO 🟡 📈 Accumulate RSI 39, below SMA. Not yet capitulation but approaching. DCA only, not lump sum.
QQQ 🟡 🔍 Watch RSI 43, -0.9% vs SMA. Tech lagging. Wait for RSI <35 or SMA reclaim.
DIA 🟡 🔒 Hold RSI 53, slightly above SMA. Dow showing relative resilience. Data stale (Feb 3).
VIXY 🟠 ⚠️ Caution RSI 65 and rising. Fear is spiking. This is a warning not to add risk. Monitor.

What Changed vs 2026-02-26

Metric Feb 26 Mar 3 Change
VOO RSI 58 39 🔴 -19 pts — sharp breakdown
VOO Price $632.48 $625.50 🔴 -$6.98 — broke below SMA
QQQ RSI 57 43 🔴 -14 pts — tech deteriorating
VIXY RSI 45 65 🔴 +20 pts — fear spiking hard
GLD Price $476.01 $468.08 🟡 -$7.93 — slight pullback from ATH
GLD RSI 64 52 🟡 Cooling after run — healthy
TLT RSI 78 61 🟢 -17 pts — overbought fear easing
TLT Price $90.14 $89.43 🟡 Slight give-back from peak

Bottom line: This is a significant deterioration from 2/26. The equity market has broken down sharply: VOO lost nearly 20 RSI points in 5 days, VIXY surged from RSI 45 to 65. The bond fear signal (TLT RSI 78) from 2/26 was the early warning — it's now showing up in equity RSI collapse. GLD is pulling back slightly from ATH but remains structurally strong. No all-clear until VIXY drops below RSI 50 and VOO reclaims its SMA.

Data Notes

Ticker Data As Of Staleness
VOO Mar 3 Fresh
QQQ Mar 3 Fresh
GLD Mar 3 Fresh
TLT Mar 3 Fresh
VIXY Mar 3 Fresh
IWM Feb 26 5 days stale
EEM Feb 9 3+ weeks stale
DIA Feb 3 4 weeks stale
HYG N/A No data file
LQD N/A No data file
DXY N/A No data file

The Gold

Key Discoveries:

  • VOO RSI crashed 19 points in 5 days (58 → 39) — this is unusually fast deterioration for a broad index ETF
  • VIXY went from RSI 45 (2/26) to RSI 65 (today) — the Feb 26 "recovery" completely reversed
  • GLD's +21% 30D move with RSI only at 52 after a -1.4% week = the gold bull run has structural support, not just speculation

Mistakes to Avoid:

  • Don't interpret VIXY RSI 45 on 2/26 as the all-clear; it was a head fake
  • Don't ignore IWM/EEM data staleness — small cap "strength" at RSI 63 is from Feb 26 data, not current

Open Questions:

  • Will VOO find support at $610-620, or does this become a full retest of Feb lows?
  • Is the VIXY spike driven by macro (tariffs, Fed) or just tech weakness spillover?
  • Can GLD maintain +21% 30D gains if equities stabilize and safe haven demand fades?
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Mar 3 ScanETF Universe Scan Mar 10 ScanMarket Pulse — Full Macro Dashboard Mar 11 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 12 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 20 ScanMarket Pulse Feb 26 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 26 ScanMarket Pulse Feb 22 ScanMarket Pulse Feb 22 ScanETF Universe Scan

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