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DIAEEMGLDIWMQQQVIXYVOO
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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 49 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulseported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-02-26-market-pulse.mdscan slugmarket-pulsesource typescan-archive

Risk-off rotation deepening: TLT surging to RSI 78 (overbought bonds = fear spike), VIXY cooling to RSI 45 but still elevated, GLD breaking higher to $476 (+3.2% vs SMA), while VOO/QQQ stall near SMA with flat 30D returns. Bonds and gold signal persistent macro uncertainty.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 CAUTIOUS / MACRO RISK-OFF — Equities holding near SMA (VOO RSI 58, QQQ RSI 57) but bond market screaming: TLT RSI 78 = aggressive flight to safety.
Risk appetite 🟠 Mixed-to-cautious — VIXY RSI 45 (down from 62 on 2/22 = improving) but TLT RSI 78 is spiking. GLD +3.2% vs SMA at RSI 64 = safe haven bid accelerating.
Key insight Equities look stable on RSI alone (VOO 58, QQQ 57) but the bond market is flashing alarm: TLT going overbought means someone is buying duration aggressively = recession/deflation fear or geomacro shock. GLD + TLT both at elevated RSI = not just a tactical hedge. Watch for VOO to crack SMA if TLT extends.

Asset Class Overview (Validated 2026-02-26)

Equities

ETF Name Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D 30D Status
VOO S&P 500 $632.48 58 $632.73 -0.04% +0.5% -0.7% 🟡 At SMA — watch for break
QQQ Nasdaq $607.63 57 $610.04 -0.4% +0.7% -2.9% 🟡 Slightly below SMA
IWM Small Cap $263.99 63 $262.92 +0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 🟡 Above SMA, flat 30D
DIA Dow $493.70 53 $491.98 +0.4% +0.7% +0.8% 🟢 Above SMA (data: Feb 3)
EEM EM $60.55 69 $58.96 +2.7% +2.1% +6.0% 🟢 Outperforming (data: Feb 9)

Pattern: VOO essentially at SMA for the third week running — stuck in neutral. QQQ down -2.9% over 30 days, still lagging. IWM flat 30D = small caps going nowhere. EM continues to outperform US markets.

Commodities

ETF Asset Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D 30D Status
GLD Gold $476.01 64 $461.23 +3.2% +3.6% +2.4% 🟢 Accelerating breakout

Pattern: Gold is accelerating. +3.6% in 7 days alone, now +3.2% above its SMA. RSI 64 — still has room before overbought (70+). Structural safe haven buying, not just a one-week pop.

Bonds & Volatility

ETF Type Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D 30D Status
TLT Long Bonds $90.14 78 $88.51 +1.9% +0.6% +2.4% 🔴 Approaching overbought — fear spike
VIXY VIX $27.25 45 $27.05 +0.7% -2.9% +6.3% 🟡 Cooling but still above baseline

Market Internals

Signal Status Implication
TLT RSI 78 (overbought bonds) 🔴 Someone is aggressively buying duration = recession fear or macro shock
VIXY RSI 45, $27.25 🟡 Improving from RSI 62 (2/22) — equity fear cooling, but bonds diverging
VOO RSI 58, at SMA 🟡 Stable but not advancing — equities stuck
QQQ RSI 57, -0.4% vs SMA 🟡 Neutral-to-weak, lagging VOO
GLD RSI 64, +3.2% vs SMA 🟢 Breakout continuing, accelerating
EEM RSI 69, +6% 30D 🟢 EM divergence vs US = dollar weakness or China recovery
VOO vs SMA -0.04% 🟡 Right at SMA — critical level

Sector Rotation Map

Rotation From To Evidence
Bond flight Risk assets Long-duration bonds TLT RSI 78 — aggressive duration buying
Gold breakout — Physical safe haven GLD +3.6% 7D, RSI 64, above SMA +3.2%
EM outperformance US equities Emerging markets EEM +6% 30D, RSI 69 vs VOO -0.7%
Nasdaq lagging — S&P > Nasdaq VOO 7D +0.5% vs QQQ -2.9% 30D
VIX normalization Equity fear Cooling VIXY RSI 45 vs 62 on 2/22

Actionable Signals

Signal Current Trigger Action
🔴 TLT RSI 78, $90.14 Approaching overbought MONITOR — If RSI hits 80+, bonds may reverse; don't chase
🟢 GLD RSI 64, $476.01, +3.2% vs SMA Momentum intact ACCUMULATE — Gold breakout extending, RSI has room
🟢 EEM RSI 69, +6% 30D EM leadership HOLD/ADD — EM diverging positively from US
🟡 VOO RSI 58, at SMA Hold SMA $632 HOLD — Stable; watch for TLT-driven equity selling
🟡 QQQ RSI 57, -0.4% vs SMA Reclaim $610 WATCH — Below SMA, needs catalyst
🟡 VIXY RSI 45, cooling RSI < 40 = all-clear WATCH — Progress made; not fully resolved

Key Changes vs 2026-02-22

Metric Feb 22 Feb 26 Change
VOO RSI 48 58 🟢 +10 pts — recovering
QQQ RSI 42 57 🟢 +15 pts — recovering
VIXY RSI 62 45 🟢 -17 pts — fear cooling
TLT RSI 64 78 🔴 +14 pts — bond spike (alarm signal)
GLD price $468.62 $476.01 🟢 +$7.39 — breakout accelerating
GLD 7D +1.7% vs SMA +3.6% 7D price gain 🟢 Accelerating

Bottom line: Surface reads as improving (VOO/QQQ RSI up, VIXY down) but the TLT spike to RSI 78 is a red flag — that's bond buyers getting aggressive, which historically precedes equity weakness or signals a macro shock is being priced in. GLD + TLT both elevated = classic stagflation/recession hedge trade. Don't be fooled by the equity calm — the bond market is telling a different story.

Data Notes

Ticker Data As Of Staleness
VOO Feb 26 Fresh
QQQ Feb 26 Fresh
VIXY Feb 26 Fresh
GLD Feb 26 Fresh
IWM Feb 26 Fresh
TLT Feb 26 Fresh
EEM Feb 9 2.5 weeks stale
DIA Feb 3 3.5 weeks stale

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
TLT RSI jumped from 64 → 78 in 4 days Aggressive bond buying = macro fear, not just tactical hedge
VIXY RSI collapsed from 62 → 45 while TLT surged Equity fear cooling but bond fear spiking = divergence, bonds leading
GLD +3.6% in 7 days, +3.2% above SMA Gold breakout is accelerating — structural demand, not just a pop
VOO/QQQ RSI recovered but 30D still negative The equity bounce is not translating to real gains — still below Jan levels

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Reading VIXY alone as the fear gauge TLT is equally important — bonds can signal fear while VIXY cools
Declaring all-clear on equity recovery VOO 7D +0.5% while QQQ 30D -2.9% = no sustained recovery yet

Open Questions

  • Is TLT RSI 78 a one-week shock (geomacro event) or start of a sustained bond rally?
  • Will GLD RSI reach 70+ and then consolidate, or keep running?
  • If TLT stays elevated, does VOO crack its SMA and re-test Feb lows?
  • Why is EM (EEM +6% 30D) diverging so strongly from US equities?
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 22 ScanMarket Pulse Feb 22 ScanETF Universe Scan Mar 3 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 3 ScanETF Universe Scan Feb 16 ScanETF Universe Scan Feb 16 ScanMarket Pulse Feb 11 ScanETF Universe Scan Feb 11 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 10 ScanMarket Pulse — Full Macro Dashboard

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