Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Deep value capitulation in progress: LOW (RSI 22.4), NKE (RSI 26.7), ABBV (RSI 27.6), VYM (RSI 26.1), and GDX (RSI 25.5) all screaming oversold with RSI < 30 AND below SMA20 — the quality x discount screen is flashing hard, with dividend compounders and blue chips delivering the best risk/reward.
Filter: RSI < 30 AND vsSma20 < 0. Ranked by quality x discount.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 BROAD CAPITULATION — 15+ names with RSI < 30 and below SMA20; blue chips, pharma, and home improvement all getting hit |
| Highest Conviction | ABBV (RSI 27.6, quality pharma), LLY (RSI 30, GLP-1 leader), LOW (RSI 22.4, home improvement), GE (RSI 29, industrial) |
| Extreme Oversold | LOW (RSI 22.4), GDX (RSI 25.5), VYM (RSI 26.1), NKE (RSI 26.7), ABBV (RSI 27.6) |
| Filter note | Only stocks with RSI < 30 AND vsSma20 < 0 included. Ranked by quality (trend history, sector defensibility) x depth of discount |
Filtered Price Table — RSI < 30 AND Below SMA20
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Trend | Quality | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | $224.93 | 22.4 | -10.3% | -3.6% | -19.8% | -6.7% | down | High | ✅ Strong Buy |
| GDX | $79.20 | 25.5 | -22.0% | -13.8% | -25.5% | -12.2% | weak-down | Medium | 📈 Accumulate |
| VYM | $145.30 | 26.1 | -4.0% | -1.2% | -6.6% | +0.7% | weak-down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
| NKE | $52.52 | 26.7 | -9.0% | -1.3% | -19.2% | -7.6% | strong-down | Medium | 🔍 Watch |
| ABBV | $204.75 | 27.6 | -8.9% | -8.1% | -8.9% | -9.4% | down | High | ✅ Strong Buy |
| NUGT | $142.68 | 26.2 | -40.7% | -26.6% | -46.0% | -30.4% | down | Low | ❌ Dangerous |
| JEPI | $56.07 | 29.0 | -3.6% | -1.3% | -5.2% | -1.0% | weak-down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
| GE | $284.40 | 29.0 | -11.7% | -4.1% | -17.0% | -9.4% | down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
| SPXL | $184.68 | 29.3 | -11.8% | -4.2% | -17.4% | -17.6% | down | Low | ⚠️ Avoid |
| UPRO | $96.90 | 29.3 | -11.8% | -4.2% | -17.4% | -17.6% | down | Low | ⚠️ Avoid |
| SSO | $51.87 | 29.8 | -7.7% | -2.8% | -11.6% | -11.3% | down | Low | ⚠️ Avoid |
| LLY | $903.48 | 30.0 | -8.9% | -7.8% | -10.5% | -16.0% | weak-down | High | ✅ Strong Buy |
| VOO | $597.95 | 30.3 | -3.8% | -1.4% | -5.7% | -5.1% | down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
| VTI | $320.40 | 30.5 | -3.8% | -1.2% | -5.8% | -5.1% | down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
| FXI | $35.15 | 31.0 | -4.2% | -0.9% | -9.4% | -9.0% | strong-down | Low | 🔍 Watch |
| MSFT | $381.95 | 32.1 | -4.2% | -3.0% | -3.9% | -21.1% | strong-down | High | 🔍 Watch |
| META | $592.22 | 32.2 | -7.3% | -3.2% | -9.6% | -10.4% | strong-down | High | 🔍 Watch |
| TNA | $41.15 | 32.1 | -15.7% | -0.8% | -25.2% | -17.6% | down | Low | ❌ Avoid |
| MCD | $310.02 | 31.7 | -5.2% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -1.4% | weak-down | High | 🔍 Watch |
| XYLD | $39.13 | 32.3 | -3.0% | -1.2% | -3.9% | -1.9% | weak-down | Medium | 🔍 Watch |
| PEP | $150.83 | 31.8 | -6.3% | -4.9% | -7.7% | +3.4% | weak-down | High | 📈 Accumulate |
Tier Analysis — Quality x Discount Rankings
Tier 1 — High Quality + Deep Discount (Best Risk/Reward)
ABBV — RSI 27.6, -8.9% 30D, -8.9% below SMA20 AbbVie is a dividend aristocrat with a 5%+ yield, Skyrizi/Rinvoq replacing Humira sales, and consistent free cash flow. This RSI level has historically been a strong entry. Not a broken thesis — just macro pressure.
LLY — RSI 30.0, -10.5% 30D, -8.9% below SMA20 Eli Lilly is the global GLP-1 leader with tirzepatide dominating obesity/diabetes market. The 3M weakness (-16%) reflects broader pharma rotation out, not fundamental impairment. Long-term secular winner at a discount.
LOW — RSI 22.4, -19.8% 30D, -10.3% below SMA20 Lowe's is a quality home improvement retailer with consistent buybacks and dividend growth. The -19.8% 30D decline is extreme by historical standards. Housing cycle softness is a headwind but thesis is intact.
VOO / VTI — RSI 30.3 / 30.5, -5.7% / -5.8% 30D The S&P 500 and total market at the oversold threshold. This is the core broad market entry zone — not a bargain-bin trade per se, but the ultimate quality-at-discount setup if the market is simply selling off.
PEP — RSI 31.8, -7.7% 30D, -6.3% below SMA20 PepsiCo is a consumer staples compounder with global distribution, pricing power, and 3%+ dividend yield. Trading below SMA20 at RSI 31.8 is rare.
GE — RSI 29, -17% 30D, -11.7% below SMA20 GE Aerospace post-spin has been a strong compounder (+300% 3Y). The -17% 30D pullback is the steepest since the spinoff. Jet engine duopoly with GE/CFM intact.
JEPI — RSI 29, -5.2% 30D JPMorgan's equity premium income ETF (covered call overlay on S&P 500). Low beta, monthly income, approaching oversold. Best defensive income ETF in the scan.
Tier 2 — Medium Quality + Deep Discount (Selective Entries)
VYM — RSI 26.1, -6.6% 30D Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF. Broad diversification, low cost, 3%+ yield. RSI 26.1 is extreme. Quality names but ETF wrapper provides diversification.
NKE — RSI 26.7, -19.2% 30D, strong-down trend Nike at oversold but in a structural downtrend with death cross. Brand still strong globally but China/margin recovery thesis uncertain. Lower conviction than ABBV/LLY.
MCD — RSI 31.7, -5.3% 30D, -5.2% below SMA20 McDonald's is a franchise machine. RSI 31.7 on a -1.4% 3M is mild; not extreme oversold but a quality name approaching it.
MSFT — RSI 32.1, strong-down trend, death cross Microsoft is quality but structurally broken chart (-20.4% below SMA200). RSI entry zone but trend repair needed. Azure growth and AI integration intact; chart needs time.
GDX — RSI 25.5, -25.5% 30D, -22% below SMA20 Gold miners ETF in capitulation. High volatility, leveraged to gold price. Watch for GLD stabilization before adding.
Tier 3 — Avoid (Low Quality or Leveraged)
NUGT — -46% 30D, RSI 26.2. Leveraged ETF. The RSI being low doesn't mean entry — it's a leveraged instrument in free fall. SPXL / UPRO / SSO / TNA — All leveraged bulls approaching oversold. Don't use RSI entry logic on leveraged ETFs in downtrends. FXI — RSI 31, strong-down, death cross. China large-cap political/macro risk elevated.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI | Conviction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ ABBV | $198–208 | 27.6 — Deep oversold | HIGH | Dividend aristocrat; add in tranches |
| ✅ LLY | $890–920 | 30.0 — Threshold | HIGH | GLP-1 leader; secular winner at discount |
| ✅ LOW | $220–228 | 22.4 — Capitulation | HIGH | -19.8% 30D extreme; quality home improvement |
| 📈 GE | $278–290 | 29 — Near oversold | MEDIUM-HIGH | Aerospace compounder at -17% 30D; add small |
| 📈 VYM | $143–148 | 26.1 — Oversold | MEDIUM | Quality dividend ETF; broad diversification |
| 📈 JEPI | $55–57 | 29 — Near oversold | MEDIUM | Low-beta income; covered call overlay |
| 📈 PEP | $148–155 | 31.8 — Near oversold | MEDIUM | Consumer staples compounder; rare oversold reading |
| 🔍 VOO/VTI | VOO $590–602 | 30.3 — At threshold | MEDIUM | Wait for one more session of confirmation |
| 🔍 MSFT | $375–390 | 32.1 — Near oversold | MEDIUM | Quality but structurally broken; patience required |
| 🔍 NKE | $50–54 | 26.7 | LOW | Brand intact but death cross; speculative only |
| ❌ NUGT | No entry | 26.2 | NONE | Leveraged ETF in free fall; RSI irrelevant |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | ABBV, LLY, LOW | RSI < 30 + quality thesis intact + major pullback |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | GE, VYM, JEPI, PEP, VOO/VTI | Near or at oversold, quality names, defensive |
| 🔍 WATCH | MSFT, META, MCD, NKE, GDX, FXI, XYLD | Approaching entry but need confirmation floor |
| ⚠️ AVOID | SPXL, UPRO, SSO | Leveraged bulls near oversold — don't add leveraged longs in downtrend |
| ❌ DANGEROUS | NUGT, TNA | Leveraged ETFs in free fall; oversold RSI is trap signal |
What Changed (vs 2026-03-12)
| Stock | 03-12 RSI (est) | 03-20 RSI | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | ~40 | 22.4 | ↓ Capitulation | Major new addition to oversold list |
| ABBV | ~40 | 27.6 | ↓ Deep oversold | NEW — fresh oversold signal |
| LLY | ~35 | 30.0 | ↓ At threshold | GLP-1 leader now at entry zone |
| GE | ~38 | 29.0 | ↓ Near oversold | Industrial compounder joining oversold club |
| NKE | ~30 | 26.7 | → Persists | NKE continuing structural breakdown |
| VYM | ~34 | 26.1 | ↓ Deeper oversold | Dividend ETF capitulating with broad market |
| GDX | ~44 | 25.5 | ↓ Capitulation | Gold miners now screaming oversold |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| LOW RSI 22.4 (-19.8% 30D) | Home improvement capitulation; quality Lowe's at rare deep discount — high conviction entry zone |
| ABBV RSI 27.6 — dividend aristocrat oversold | Best quality oversold signal in the scan; 5%+ yield at discount |
| LLY RSI 30.0 — GLP-1 leader at threshold | Secular winner getting swept in broad pharma selloff; DCA opportunity |
| GE RSI 29 after +300% 3Y run | Post-spin aerospace compounder giving back gains; structural thesis unchanged |
Open Questions
- Is LOW's -19.8% 30D housing-driven or macro-driven? Housing starts data will clarify.
- LLY RSI 30: Is this the bottom of the GLP-1 consolidation or the start of a larger correction?
- Will ABBV hold the $200 level — that's a key psychological and technical support?
- GDX at RSI 25.5: Will gold stabilization bring miners back, or are miners pricing in gold structural decline?
Bargain-bin filter: RSI < 30 AND vsSma20 < 0. Sorted by quality x discount. Date: 2026-03-20.
Related
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