Airlines Scan
Airlines Scan
War-Ends Playbook beneficiary sector. DAL and JETS holding up with golden crosses intact — but the thesis is partially broken: 3/19 playbook trades hit, and airlines did not materially re-rate despite the macro hope. The sector is limping along in neutral-to-weak-down territory with most names 15-37% off 52-week highs, except DAL which is the cleanest chart. SAVE and HA have no data (delisted/merged). Watch macro demand signals before adding new positions.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Neutral — sector flat vs. 16 days ago, war-ends thesis provided floor but not rally fuel |
| Key insight | DAL is the only true momentum name (strong-up, golden cross, 8.8% above SMA200). Everything else is sideways or trending down structurally. |
| War-ends thesis | PARTIAL HIT — airlines held flat rather than rallying; no sustained re-rating occurred |
| Missing data | SAVE (bankrupt/delisted), HA (acquired by Alaska) — no live prices |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi% | RSI | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | $68.45 | -4.93% | +0.68% | +1.68% | -10.4% | 51.8 | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| UAL | $95.20 | +5.45% | +5.45% | -14.04% | -20.1% | 50.1 | down | 🟡 Neutral |
| LUV | $39.45 | -6.63% | -1.84% | -5.73% | -28.4% | 47.0 | weak-down | 🟡 Neutral |
| JETS | $26.00 | -5.70% | +2.77% | -8.19% | -17.0% | 49.3 | down | 🟡 Neutral |
| AAL | $12.10 | -0.66% | +12.66% | -16.95% | -26.7% | 55.4 | weak-up | 🟡 Death Cross |
| ALK | $41.59 | -6.54% | +5.88% | -16.50% | -36.9% | 51.2 | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| SAVE | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
| HA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Best in Class
DAL is the only name that's actually working. Strong-up trend, golden cross confirmed, 8.8% above SMA200, only -10.4% from 52wk high. 3-month return barely positive (+1.68%) — it's not ripping, but it's not breaking either. RSI at 51.8 is healthy neutral. Delta's international premium positioning and balance sheet strength give it structural superiority over LCC peers.
Tier 2 — Watchlist
UAL bounced +5.45% on the week/30D, but the 3-month is -14% and trend reads "down" — this is a dead-cat-bounce territory until proven otherwise. -20% from 52wk high. RSI 50.1 doesn't tell you much. United's China exposure and business class mix are higher-beta to macro clarity.
JETS (ETF) is the cleanest expression of sector-level bet. Flat-to-down: 30D +2.77%, 3M -8.19%, RSI 49.3. Golden cross still intact but trend is "down." Holding as a macro placeholder, not for momentum.
Tier 3 — Avoid or Structural Problems
LUV has a death-cross-free chart (golden cross still shows) but trend is "weak-down." -28% from 52wk high, -8.1% below SMA50. Southwest's restructuring (activist pressure, network changes, fee introduction) is a slow-moving story. Speculative only.
AAL is the high-beta junk trade. Death cross. -26.7% from 52wk high. The +12.66% 30D bounce is noise — 3M is -17%. Balance sheet remains the worst in the group. Avoid for serious capital.
ALK is the most structurally damaged — strong-down trend, death cross, -36.9% from 52wk high, -15.5% below SMA200. The Hawaiian Airlines merger integration is creating uncertainty and the stock is lagging all peers. Long-term chart is flat to negative over 1-3 years.
Entry Zones
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 40-50) — Watch
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JETS | $26.00 | $24-26 | 49.3 | +2.77% | 🔍 Watch | Sector ETF; thesis placeholder; don't chase |
| LUV | $39.45 | $36-38 | 47.0 | -1.84% | 🔍 Watch | Only interesting at deeper RSI <35 pullback |
NEUTRAL — Wait for Signal
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | $68.45 | $63-66 | 51.8 | +0.68% | 📈 Accumulate on dip | Best chart; wait for RSI dip toward 40 |
| UAL | $95.20 | $85-90 | 50.1 | +5.45% | 🔍 Watch | Bounce not confirmed; needs 3M stabilization |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE on dip | DAL | Only strong-up name; wait for $63-66 entry zone |
| 🔍 WATCH | JETS, UAL | Thesis placeholder; need macro confirmation |
| ⚠️ AVOID | AAL, ALK | Death crosses, structural damage, junk balance sheets |
| ❌ NO DATA | SAVE, HA | Delisted / acquired — remove from watchlist |
What Changed vs 2026-04-10
The war-ends thesis as a catalyst has stalled. Airlines held flat — which is the "partial hit" outcome — but did not re-rate meaningfully higher. DAL gained marginally on 30D (+0.68%), UAL is up 5.45% but off a weak base, and ALK/LUV continue to bleed. The sector's 3-month returns are universally negative (-5% to -17%), confirming that the playbook provided a floor, not a rally. For new money, the bar for adding airlines is higher now: need either (1) an actual ceasefire announcement driving jet fuel cost expectations down, or (2) a summer booking data catalyst showing demand resilience.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| DAL golden cross + strong-up is durable | Best-in-class quality; only name worth accumulating on dips |
| War-ends gave airlines a floor, not a re-rate | Don't size up on thesis alone; wait for hard catalyst |
| SAVE/HA have no data | Watchlist pruning needed — replace with something live |
Open Questions
Related
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