Healthcare Scan
Healthcare Scan
Healthcare is broadly RISK-ON now — large-cap pharma anchors that were soft last week have ripped (JNJ +6.4% 30D near ATH, MRK +7.4% 7D near ATH, AMGN +5.9% 30D), managed care still leads (UNH +55.9% 3M at ATH, CVS +47.2% 3M at ATH), and even lab-tools (TMO +13% 30D) bounced. The bifurcation is now narrower: only focused medtech (ISRG, SYK, MDT) and animal health (ZTS) plus healthcare-SaaS (VEEV) are still in collapse. PFE at RSI 27 is the lone deep-oversold name. Entry-frame: the leaders are mostly near ATH (don't chase); the cleanest setups are the basing large-caps (GILD, AMGN) and the washed-out PFE.
Source: healthcare.json. Latest bar 2026-06-25.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broadly risk-on but bifurcated — managed care (UNH/CVS at ATH) + large-cap pharma (JNJ/MRK near ATH) + GLP-1/mRNA (LLY/MRNA) lead; focused medtech (ISRG/SYK/MDT) + animal health (ZTS) + SaaS (VEEV) still collapsing |
| Leaders | CVS (RSI 72, +47.2% 3M, at ATH, +30% vs SMA200), VRTX (RSI 69, +10.2% 30D), UNH (RSI 67, +55.9% 3M, at ATH), JNJ (RSI 65, near ATH), MRK (RSI 65, near ATH), ABT (RSI 62, +7.7% 30D) |
| Laggards | PFE (RSI 27↓, -7.5% 30D, below all SMAs), ISRG (RSI 38↓, -14.5% 3M, collapse), ZTS (RSI 40, -33% 3M, -51.9% from ATH, collapse), GILD (RSI 42, -6.5% 30D), VEEV (RSI 44, collapse) |
| Key insight | The insurer/pharma re-rate now has the large-caps too (JNJ +6.4% 30D, MRK +7.4% 7D near ATH); the ONLY structural losers left are focused devices (ISRG/SYK/MDT) + ZTS + VEEV. PFE (RSI 27) is the lone washed-out name worth a watch |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | $23.91 | 26.9 ↓ | -6.4% | -4.22% | -7.50% | -11.84% | -16.85% | 🔍 Watch (oversold, GC, -5.3% vs SMA200) |
| ISRG | $400.52 | 37.6 ↓ | -2.8% | -1.02% | -8.27% | -14.52% | -33.68% | ❌ Don't Buy (collapse, DC) |
| ZTS | $77.82 | 39.8 ↓ | -1.1% | -0.51% | -3.00% | -32.98% | -51.89% | ❌ Don't Buy (collapse, DC) |
| GILD | $124.29 | 42.2 ↓ | -1.9% | +1.63% | -6.45% | -8.60% | -20.98% | 🔍 Watch (pullback, GC, -2.9% vs SMA200) |
| VEEV | $158.08 | 44.3 ↓ | -4.9% | +5.76% | -0.29% | -11.33% | -49.09% | ❌ Don't Buy (collapse, DC) |
| DXCM | $69.26 | 45.8 ↓ | -5.2% | -4.87% | -3.82% | +4.80% | -23.03% | 🔍 Watch (pullback, +2.9% vs SMA200) |
| SYK | $316.11 | 55.9 | +3.3% | +1.65% | +0.99% | -4.72% | -21.92% | 🔍 Watch (downtrend, DC, -9.2% vs SMA200) |
| MDT | $81.29 | 56.0 | +2.7% | +2.00% | +4.76% | -6.52% | -23.55% | 🔍 Watch (downtrend, DC, -10.5% vs SMA200) |
| BIIB | $204.40 | 60.1 | +3.8% | +2.53% | +5.86% | +6.98% | -1.09% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC, near ATH) |
| AMGN | $355.86 | 60.5 | +3.5% | +4.40% | +5.93% | +1.53% | -9.05% | 🔒 Hold (basing, GC) |
| LLY | $1,127.69 | 60.6 | +0.9% | +1.55% | +5.91% | +25.93% | -4.65% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC, +16.1% vs SMA200) |
| TMO | $505.75 | 64.0 | +5.7% | +6.73% | +12.96% | +3.56% | -21.47% | 🔍 Watch (weak-up, DC, -3.6% vs SMA200) |
| MRK | $123.73 | 64.6 | +5.2% | +7.41% | +4.09% | +4.78% | -1.13% | 🔒 Hold (strong-up, GC, near ATH, +18.2% vs SMA200) |
| TGT‡ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ABT | $93.37 | 61.7 | +4.8% | +1.81% | +7.73% | -10.15% | -32.11% | 🔍 Watch (weak-up, DC, -16.5% vs SMA200) |
| JNJ | $244.84 | 65.1 | +5.0% | +5.38% | +6.37% | +2.93% | -2.73% | 🔒 Hold (basing, GC, near ATH, +13.9% vs SMA200) |
| MRNA | $59.21 | 61.2 | +12.9% | -2.28% | +25.90% | +10.53% | -12.60% | 📈 Accumulate (uptrend, GC, +48.3% vs SMA200) |
| UNH | $415.53 | 67.0 | +4.3% | +0.44% | +10.89% | +55.90% | -0.49% | 🔒 Hold (uptrend, GC, at ATH, +25.4% vs SMA200) |
| VRTX | $480.18 | 69.2 | +6.8% | +4.79% | +10.15% | +5.83% | -5.46% | 🔒 Hold (basing) |
| CVS | $103.87 | 71.7 ↑ | +6.6% | +3.90% | +14.48% | +47.21% | -1.02% | ⚠️ EXTENDED (at ATH, +30% vs SMA200) |
‡TGT is not in healthcare.json (cross-list artifact); ignore.
Tier Analysis
Oversold / Collapsing (RSI < 46)
- PFE ($23.91, RSI 27) — Pfizer: down regime, golden cross (technical), -5.3% vs SMA200, -16.9% from ATH. The lone deep-oversold name (RSI 27). Below all 3 SMAs so not clean oversold-quality, but GC + only -5% below the 200 = closest thing to a contrarian probe in the scan. Watch for a turn off the lows; don't catch it mid-flush.
- ISRG ($400.52, RSI 38) — Intuitive Surgical: collapse, death-cross, -14.5% 3M, -33.7% from ATH, -18.2% vs SMA200.
thesis: intactper engine but the trend is broken (device competition: J&J Ottava, Medtronic Hugo). BROKEN/AVOID. - ZTS ($77.82, RSI 40) — Zoetis: collapse, death-cross, -33% 3M, -51.9% from ATH, -34.3% vs SMA200. Worst name in the scan; no reversal. BROKEN/AVOID.
- GILD ($124.29, RSI 42) — Gilead: pullback, golden cross, -6.5% 30D, -2.9% vs SMA200, -21% from ATH. Sitting just below the 200; watch for RSI < 40 capitulation or a reclaim.
- VEEV ($158.08, RSI 44) — Veeva: collapse, death-cross, -49.1% from ATH, -26.7% vs SMA200. Healthcare-SaaS multiple still compressing. BROKEN/AVOID.
- DXCM ($69.26, RSI 46) — Dexcom: pullback, -3.8% 30D, +2.9% vs SMA200 (barely), death-cross. CGM name; -5.2% below SMA20. Watch.
Neutral / Basing (RSI 56–62)
- SYK ($316.11, RSI 56) — Stryker: downtrend, death-cross, -9.2% vs SMA200, -21.9% from ATH. Reclaiming SMA20/50 but below the 200. Ortho/medtech weak. Watch.
- MDT ($81.29, RSI 56) — Medtronic: downtrend, death-cross, -10.5% vs SMA200, -23.6% from ATH.
thesis: intact; weak-up reclaiming SMA20 only. Watch. - BIIB ($204.40, RSI 60) — Biogen: uptrend, golden cross, +16.2% vs SMA200, near ATH. Alzheimer's re-rate holding. Hold.
- AMGN ($355.86, RSI 60) — Amgen: basing, golden cross, +8% vs SMA200, -9% from ATH. +5.9% 30D recovery. Clean large-cap basing setup. Hold/accumulate.
- LLY ($1,127.69, RSI 61) — Eli Lilly: uptrend, golden cross, +25.9% 3M, +16.1% vs SMA200, -4.7% from ATH. The premier compounder. Hold.
- ABT ($93.37, RSI 62) — Abbott: weak-up, death-cross, -16.5% vs SMA200, -32.1% from ATH but +7.7% 30D bounce. Still below the 200 — relief rally in a downtrend, not a reclaim. Watch.
Momentum / Leading (RSI 64–72)
- TMO ($505.75, RSI 64) — Thermo Fisher: weak-up, death-cross, -3.6% vs SMA200, +13% 30D bounce, -21.5% from ATH. User-owned,
thesis: intact. Lab-tools bouncing toward the 200; watch the reclaim. - MRK ($123.73, RSI 65) — Merck: strong-up, golden cross, +18.2% vs SMA200, near ATH (-1.1%), +7.4% 7D. Keytruda franchise re-rating; CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT but near ATH — add on a pullback.
- JNJ ($244.84, RSI 65) — J&J: basing→strong, golden cross, +13.9% vs SMA200, near ATH (-2.7%), +6.4% 30D. Diversified-pharma thesis confirming post-Kenvue. Hold.
- UNH ($415.53, RSI 67) — UnitedHealth: uptrend, golden cross, +55.9% 3M, +25.4% vs SMA200, at ATH (-0.5%). Strongest large-cap run in the scan; managed-care recovery. Hold — don't chase at ATH.
- VRTX ($480.18, RSI 69) — Vertex: basing→up, +10.2% 30D, -5.5% from ATH. CF + pipeline; approaching extended.
- CVS ($103.87, RSI 72) — CVS Health: strong-up, golden cross, +47.2% 3M, +30% vs SMA200, at ATH (-1%). EXTENDED — RSI 72 at ATH; pharmacy→insurance re-rate fully priced near-term. Don't chase; hold if owned.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | $355.86 | <$348 | 60.5 | +5.9% | Large-cap basing; GC; +8% vs SMA200; cleanest large-cap entry, add on SMA20 retest |
| LLY | $1,127.69 | <$1,118 | 60.6 | +5.9% | GLP-1 oligopoly; GC; +16% vs SMA200; near ATH; accumulate any dip |
| MRNA | $59.21 | <$57 | 61.2 | +25.9% | mRNA re-rating; +48.3% vs SMA200; GC; -2.3% 7D flag = add |
| MRK | $123.73 | <$120 | 64.6 | +4.1% | Keytruda; GC; +18% vs SMA200; near ATH — buy SMA20 pullback not the print |
| PFE | $23.91 | <$23 | 26.9 | -7.5% | Lone deep-oversold (RSI 27); GC; on SMA200; contrarian probe only on a turn |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | UNH, JNJ, MRK, LLY, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX | Insurers + large-cap pharma anchors; trends/theses intact; don't sell strength |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | MRNA, AMGN | mRNA platform re-rating (+48% vs SMA200); AMGN clean large-cap basing setup |
| 🔍 WATCH | PFE, GILD, TMO, DXCM, SYK, MDT, ABT | PFE lone oversold; rest are pullbacks/relief-bounces still below SMA200 — wait for reclaim |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T CHASE | CVS, UNH | RSI 72/67 at ATH, +30%/+25% vs SMA200 — fully priced near-term, wait for pullback |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | ISRG, ZTS, VEEV | Collapse regime + death-cross + below SMA200; structural de-rates not finished |
What Changed
- Large-cap pharma flipped from soft to strong — JNJ (+6.4% 30D, near ATH), MRK (+7.4% 7D, near ATH, +18% vs SMA200), AMGN (+5.9% 30D) all recovered vs last week's pullback; the anchors are now confirming.
- UNH + CVS at ATH — UNH +55.9% 3M (RSI 67, at ATH), CVS +47.2% 3M (RSI 72, at ATH); managed-care re-rate fully extended. Don't chase.
- MRNA breakout holds — +25.9% 30D, +48.3% vs SMA200; dual-confirmed across healthcare + biotech scans. Best momentum name; -2.3% 7D = mild flag.
- PFE deep oversold (RSI 27) — the lone washed-out large-cap; on the SMA200 with GC intact, the closest thing to a contrarian setup.
- Focused medtech still the loser cohort — ISRG (-14.5% 3M, collapse), SYK (downtrend), MDT (downtrend) all below SMA200; ZTS (-33% 3M) and VEEV (-49% from ATH) remain the worst names.
- TMO/ABT relief bounces — both up 30D (+13% / +7.7%) but still below SMA200 + death-cross — relief rallies in downtrends, not reclaims.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| JNJ/MRK/AMGN flipped soft→strong vs last week | Large-cap pharma re-rate broadened — the risk-on bid reached the anchors, narrowing the bifurcation |
| Only ISRG/SYK/MDT/ZTS/VEEV still below SMA200 | The structural-loser cohort shrank to focused devices + animal health + SaaS; rest of healthcare is risk-on |
| PFE RSI 27 alone vs leaders at ATH | Single deep-oversold name in an otherwise extended sector — the lone contrarian watch, not a sector capitulation |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating ISRG `thesis: intact` as a buy | Engine tag ≠ trend; collapse + death-cross + below SMA200 = no entry despite the tag |
| Reading TMO/ABT 30D bounces as reclaims | Up 30D but below SMA200 + death-cross = relief rally in a downtrend; wait for the actual SMA200 reclaim |
| Chasing CVS/UNH at ATH | RSI 72/67 + 25-30% above SMA200 = the re-rate is priced; add only on pullbacks |
Open Questions
- PFE RSI 27 on the SMA200: contrarian turn setting up, or more downside before it washes out below the 200?
- TMO/ABT relief bounces — do they reclaim SMA200 (trend turn) or fade back into the device/lab-tools downtrend?
- UNH +55.9% 3M at ATH: does the managed-care recovery have a second leg, or is this the exhaustion top?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.