Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The book kept extending its strength — CF and CTVA both upgraded to a confirmed uptrend regime this cycle, DE's RSI ran from 51.0 to 63.0 on an accelerating 30-day gain, and MOS's repair continued (30-day flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%) even without a further regime upgrade. ADM cooled off its near-overbought extension slightly, and FMC posted its first positive 30-day print in a long stretch, though it remains the one collapse-regime name in the book.
Data as-of the Friday 2026-07-24 close for all 8 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-food-security (data as-of the 2026-07-17 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Continued strength — CF and CTVA both confirmed fresh uptrend regimes, DE and NTR extended, FMC posted its first positive month in a while |
| Key insight | CTVA's RSI ran to 69.8, essentially at its 52-week high (-0.68%) — the book's clearest near-overbought watch this cycle |
What's Going On
The book's broad strength from last cycle continued, and two names confirmed a genuine structural upgrade this time. CF's regime lifted to uptrend as its RSI held near 64.7 and its 30-day gain accelerated sharply to +21.32% (was +17.96%), its thesis still rated intact. CTVA's regime also lifted to uptrend, RSI climbing further to 69.8 with its distance from the 52-week high tightening to just -0.68% — essentially at a fresh high, and the clearest near-overbought watch item in the book this cycle. DE extended its own repair: RSI ran from 51.0 to 63.0, and its 30-day reading accelerated from +1.62% to +4.83%. ADM, last cycle's standout at RSI 73.5, cooled slightly to 68.0 even as its 30-day gain accelerated further to +14.44% — a modest pullback from the extension flagged last cycle rather than a reversal. NTR's thesis-intact repair kept building, RSI up to 57.5 with an accelerating +13.82% 30-day gain. BG held its uptrend regime from last cycle, RSI extending to 58.5. MOS's recovery continued without a further structural upgrade — its 30-day reading flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%, a real improvement, though its regime stays tagged downtrend rather than lifting further. FMC, the one structural laggard left in the book, posted its first positive 30-day print in a long stretch (+0.53%, was -2.27%), though it remains in a collapse regime and the weakest RSI in the book at 47.6.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-17 → 07-24)
- CF: regime upgraded to uptrend; RSI 64.2 → 64.7, 30-day accelerated from +17.96% to +21.32%, -10.74% from high (was -14.47%).
- CTVA: regime upgraded to uptrend; RSI 65.8 → 69.8, -0.68% from high (was -1.04%) — now essentially at a fresh high.
- DE: RSI 51.0 → 63.0, 30-day accelerated from +1.62% to +4.83%.
- ADM: RSI eased from 73.5 to 68.0, though 30-day accelerated further to +14.44%; -2.33% from high (was -0.12%) — a modest cooldown from last cycle's extension.
- NTR: RSI 55.9 → 57.5, thesis still intact, 30-day accelerated from +8.01% to +13.82%.
- BG: RSI 57.1 → 58.5, regime holds uptrend from last cycle's upgrade.
- MOS: 30-day flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%, RSI 51.2 → 51.6; regime unchanged at downtrend.
- FMC: 30-day flipped from -2.27% to +0.53% — the first positive monthly print in a long stretch, still in a collapse regime.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels carry more weight than a single RSI move. CF and CTVA's fresh uptrend upgrades this cycle are the most structurally significant change in the book — both had been reading strong without the confirmed tag until now. ADM's slight RSI cooldown from 73.5 to 68.0 reads as a natural pause from an extension, not a reversal, given its 30-day gain kept accelerating. MOS's continued repair without a regime upgrade is a real improvement worth tracking, but the label hasn't caught up to the price action yet. FMC's first positive monthly print is a pause in the collapse, not a resolution of it.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA | $89.25 | 69.8 | +2.23% | +11.44% | +3.9% | strong-up | -0.68% (regime: uptrend) |
| ADM | $85.92 | 68.0 | +0.02% | +14.44% | +5.7% | strong-up | -2.33% (regime: uptrend) |
| CF | $125.07 | 64.7 | +3.01% | +21.32% | +7.0% | strong-up | -10.74% (regime: uptrend; thesis: intact) |
| DE | $628.16 | 63.0 | +5.18% | +4.83% | +3.7% | strong-up | -9.52% (regime: basing) |
| BG | $121.53 | 58.5 | +2.00% | +11.51% | +5.9% | strong-up | -9.32% (regime: uptrend) |
| NTR | $68.10 | 57.5 | +1.22% | +13.82% | +3.4% | strong-up | -19.70% (thesis: intact) |
| MOS | $22.30 | 51.6 | +0.77% | +6.90% | +1.7% | weak-up | -40.49% (regime: downtrend) |
| FMC | $11.30 | 47.6 | +0.80% | +0.53% | +0.4% | strong-down | -73.22% (regime: collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Strength, near-overbought: CTVA (RSI 69.8, essentially at 52-week high), ADM (RSI 68.0, modest cooldown from last cycle's extension).
Tier B — Confirmed uptrends, extending: CF (fresh uptrend upgrade), DE, BG.
Tier C — Repair stories, continuing: NTR (thesis intact, accelerating).
Tier D — Structural laggards, improving but unresolved: MOS (repair continuing, no regime upgrade yet), FMC (still collapse, first positive month in a while).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $68.10 | 57.5 | +13.82% | Thesis intact, repair accelerating, still -19.70% from high — the standout actionable name in the book |
| MOS | $22.30 | 51.6 | +6.90% | Real improvement continuing, but regime still downtrend — worth tracking for the first structural upgrade |
| CTVA | $89.25 | 69.8 | +11.44% | Fresh uptrend confirmed, but essentially at a 52-week high — not a fresh entry, watch for a cooldown |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | CF, DE, BG | Confirmed uptrends/basing, extending strength |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NTR | Thesis intact, repair accelerating this cycle |
| 🔍 WATCH | CTVA, ADM, MOS | CTVA/ADM near-overbought extension risk; MOS improving but no regime upgrade yet |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | FMC | Still collapse regime despite the first positive month in a while |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| CTVA's RSI 69.8 near its 52-week high | The book's clearest rollover-risk watch this cycle |
| CF/CTVA's fresh uptrend upgrades | Confirm these hold rather than reverting next cycle |
| MOS's continued repair without a regime upgrade | The label hasn't caught up to the price action — watch for the first structural change |
| FMC's first positive 30-day print | Still collapse regime — needs a genuine trend change before it's more than a pause |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — *.
Related
7 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.