Food Security Scan

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Food Security Scan

Scan symbols 8
Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 21 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-17-food-security.md

The book kept extending its strength — CF and CTVA both upgraded to a confirmed uptrend regime this cycle, DE's RSI ran from 51.0 to 63.0 on an accelerating 30-day gain, and MOS's repair continued (30-day flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%) even without a further regime upgrade. ADM cooled off its near-overbought extension slightly, and FMC posted its first positive 30-day print in a long stretch, though it remains the one collapse-regime name in the book.

Data as-of the Friday 2026-07-24 close for all 8 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-food-security (data as-of the 2026-07-17 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 Continued strength — CF and CTVA both confirmed fresh uptrend regimes, DE and NTR extended, FMC posted its first positive month in a while
Key insight CTVA's RSI ran to 69.8, essentially at its 52-week high (-0.68%) — the book's clearest near-overbought watch this cycle

What's Going On

The book's broad strength from last cycle continued, and two names confirmed a genuine structural upgrade this time. CF's regime lifted to uptrend as its RSI held near 64.7 and its 30-day gain accelerated sharply to +21.32% (was +17.96%), its thesis still rated intact. CTVA's regime also lifted to uptrend, RSI climbing further to 69.8 with its distance from the 52-week high tightening to just -0.68% — essentially at a fresh high, and the clearest near-overbought watch item in the book this cycle. DE extended its own repair: RSI ran from 51.0 to 63.0, and its 30-day reading accelerated from +1.62% to +4.83%. ADM, last cycle's standout at RSI 73.5, cooled slightly to 68.0 even as its 30-day gain accelerated further to +14.44% — a modest pullback from the extension flagged last cycle rather than a reversal. NTR's thesis-intact repair kept building, RSI up to 57.5 with an accelerating +13.82% 30-day gain. BG held its uptrend regime from last cycle, RSI extending to 58.5. MOS's recovery continued without a further structural upgrade — its 30-day reading flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%, a real improvement, though its regime stays tagged downtrend rather than lifting further. FMC, the one structural laggard left in the book, posted its first positive 30-day print in a long stretch (+0.53%, was -2.27%), though it remains in a collapse regime and the weakest RSI in the book at 47.6.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-17 → 07-24)

  • CF: regime upgraded to uptrend; RSI 64.2 → 64.7, 30-day accelerated from +17.96% to +21.32%, -10.74% from high (was -14.47%).
  • CTVA: regime upgraded to uptrend; RSI 65.8 → 69.8, -0.68% from high (was -1.04%) — now essentially at a fresh high.
  • DE: RSI 51.0 → 63.0, 30-day accelerated from +1.62% to +4.83%.
  • ADM: RSI eased from 73.5 to 68.0, though 30-day accelerated further to +14.44%; -2.33% from high (was -0.12%) — a modest cooldown from last cycle's extension.
  • NTR: RSI 55.9 → 57.5, thesis still intact, 30-day accelerated from +8.01% to +13.82%.
  • BG: RSI 57.1 → 58.5, regime holds uptrend from last cycle's upgrade.
  • MOS: 30-day flipped from -3.36% to +6.9%, RSI 51.2 → 51.6; regime unchanged at downtrend.
  • FMC: 30-day flipped from -2.27% to +0.53% — the first positive monthly print in a long stretch, still in a collapse regime.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels carry more weight than a single RSI move. CF and CTVA's fresh uptrend upgrades this cycle are the most structurally significant change in the book — both had been reading strong without the confirmed tag until now. ADM's slight RSI cooldown from 73.5 to 68.0 reads as a natural pause from an extension, not a reversal, given its 30-day gain kept accelerating. MOS's continued repair without a regime upgrade is a real improvement worth tracking, but the label hasn't caught up to the price action yet. FMC's first positive monthly print is a pause in the collapse, not a resolution of it.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
CTVA $89.25 69.8 +2.23% +11.44% +3.9% strong-up -0.68% (regime: uptrend)
ADM $85.92 68.0 +0.02% +14.44% +5.7% strong-up -2.33% (regime: uptrend)
CF $125.07 64.7 +3.01% +21.32% +7.0% strong-up -10.74% (regime: uptrend; thesis: intact)
DE $628.16 63.0 +5.18% +4.83% +3.7% strong-up -9.52% (regime: basing)
BG $121.53 58.5 +2.00% +11.51% +5.9% strong-up -9.32% (regime: uptrend)
NTR $68.10 57.5 +1.22% +13.82% +3.4% strong-up -19.70% (thesis: intact)
MOS $22.30 51.6 +0.77% +6.90% +1.7% weak-up -40.49% (regime: downtrend)
FMC $11.30 47.6 +0.80% +0.53% +0.4% strong-down -73.22% (regime: collapse)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Strength, near-overbought: CTVA (RSI 69.8, essentially at 52-week high), ADM (RSI 68.0, modest cooldown from last cycle's extension).

Tier B — Confirmed uptrends, extending: CF (fresh uptrend upgrade), DE, BG.

Tier C — Repair stories, continuing: NTR (thesis intact, accelerating).

Tier D — Structural laggards, improving but unresolved: MOS (repair continuing, no regime upgrade yet), FMC (still collapse, first positive month in a while).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
NTR $68.10 57.5 +13.82% Thesis intact, repair accelerating, still -19.70% from high — the standout actionable name in the book
MOS $22.30 51.6 +6.90% Real improvement continuing, but regime still downtrend — worth tracking for the first structural upgrade
CTVA $89.25 69.8 +11.44% Fresh uptrend confirmed, but essentially at a 52-week high — not a fresh entry, watch for a cooldown

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD CF, DE, BG Confirmed uptrends/basing, extending strength
📈 ACCUMULATE NTR Thesis intact, repair accelerating this cycle
🔍 WATCH CTVA, ADM, MOS CTVA/ADM near-overbought extension risk; MOS improving but no regime upgrade yet
❌ DON'T BUY FMC Still collapse regime despite the first positive month in a while

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
CTVA's RSI 69.8 near its 52-week high The book's clearest rollover-risk watch this cycle
CF/CTVA's fresh uptrend upgrades Confirm these hold rather than reverting next cycle
MOS's continued repair without a regime upgrade The label hasn't caught up to the price action — watch for the first structural change
FMC's first positive 30-day print Still collapse regime — needs a genuine trend change before it's more than a pause

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — *.
7 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.