Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
Two repair stories continued: NTR's RSI climbed from 48.8 to 51.7 with its thesis still rated intact, and BG's flagged rollover risk actually reversed — RSI recovered from 36.8 to 48.6. CTVA's overbought flag from last scan resolved into a healthy cooldown (RSI 72.8 → 64.0) while it stayed within 2.3% of its 52-week high. FMC is the one name that got materially worse — its 30-day reading swung from +3.27% to -39.19%, the sharpest deterioration in the book, still in a collapse regime.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-food-security (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 More improving than deteriorating — NTR and BG both repaired, CTVA's overbought flag resolved cleanly |
| Key insight | FMC's -39.19% 30-day swing (from +3.27% last scan) is the sharpest single-name deterioration in the book, still regime collapse |
What's Going On
The two names flagged as "in progress" last scan both kept moving in the right direction. NTR, the prior week's repair story (RSI recovered from an earlier oversold 28.8 to 48.8), continued healing — RSI is now 51.7 and its thesis remains rated intact. BG, flagged last week as a rollover risk on a -13.32% 30-day decline, instead recovered: RSI moved from 36.8 to 48.6 and its distance from its 52-week high improved from -19.34% to -15.24%. CTVA, flagged as "near-overbought" at RSI 72.8, cooled in an orderly way to RSI 64.0 while its 30-day gain held roughly steady and it stayed within 2.3% of its 52-week high — the cooldown didn't cost it structure. DE, the other confirmed uptrend leader last week, cooled more sharply — RSI down from 65.0 to 46.4 and its distance from its 52-week high widened from -5.78% to -12.95%, a real pullback worth watching rather than dismissing. FMC is the clear negative standout: its 30-day reading swung from +3.27% to -39.19% and it's now -75.19% from its 52-week high (was -74.30%) — still in a collapse regime, and the deterioration accelerated rather than stabilized. MOS ticked up marginally on RSI (44.1 → 48.4) but its regime label is still collapse — no change to its structural-avoid status.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)
- NTR: RSI 48.8 → 51.7, thesis still intact — repair continuing past the midpoint.
- BG: RSI 36.8 → 48.6, distance from high improved -19.34% → -15.24% — last week's flagged rollover risk reversed into a recovery.
- CTVA: RSI 72.8 → 64.0, 30-day held steady (+13.88% → +14.45%), stayed within -2.29% of its 52-week high — the overbought flag resolved cleanly.
- CF: RSI 55.6 → 60.2, trend upgraded weak-down → strong-up, 30-day accelerated (+3.43% → +9.72%).
- ADM: RSI 51.3 → 59.2, 30-day flipped positive (-2.85% → +1.91%), distance from high improved -8.72% → -5.81%.
- DE: RSI 65.0 → 46.4, distance from high widened -5.78% → -12.95% — a real cooldown in the book's prior uptrend leader.
- FMC: 30-day swung from +3.27% to -39.19%, distance from high widened -74.30% → -75.19% — the sharpest deterioration in the book, still regime collapse.
- MOS: RSI 44.1 → 48.4, 30-day flipped positive (-0.94% → +1.99%), but regime remains collapse — no change to its structural-avoid status.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels carry more weight than a single RSI move. MOS's RSI improvement doesn't change its collapse-regime status, so it stays a structural avoid despite the better-looking number. CTVA's cooldown from RSI 72.8 to 64.0 while holding its distance-from-high is the "healthy digestion" pattern — RSI easing without giving back the underlying gain — not a warning sign.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA | $85.68 | 64.0 | +0.84% | +14.45% | +5.3% | strong-up | -2.29% (regime: basing) |
| CF | $116.92 | 60.2 | +3.03% | +9.72% | +8.0% | strong-up | -17.64% |
| ADM | $80.41 | 59.2 | +3.65% | +1.91% | +3.7% | strong-up | -5.81% (regime: uptrend) |
| NTR | $65.43 | 51.7 | +1.21% | +0.71% | +3.0% | weak-down | -23.35% (thesis: intact) |
| BG | $114.32 | 48.6 | +6.27% | -8.75% | +0.9% | weak-down | -15.24% |
| MOS | $21.51 | 48.4 | +1.32% | +1.99% | -0.6% | strong-down | -42.69% (regime: collapse) |
| DE | $586.86 | 46.4 | -5.85% | +3.47% | -2.4% | strong-up | -12.95% (regime: basing) |
| FMC | $10.91 | 39.7 | -0.91% | -39.19% | -3.6% | strong-down | -75.19% (regime: collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Confirmed uptrends: CTVA (cooled from overbought, holding structure), CF (upgraded to strong-up), ADM (improving across the board), DE (still strong-up but cooled sharply this week — worth watching for stabilization).
Tier B — Repair stories, improving: NTR (thesis intact, RSI climbing past 50), BG (rollover flag reversed into a recovery).
Tier C — Structural avoid, unchanged or worsening: MOS (collapse regime, marginal RSI tick doesn't change the label), FMC (collapse regime, the sharpest deterioration in the book this cycle).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $65.43 | 51.7 | +0.71% | Thesis intact, repair continuing — the standout actionable name in this book |
| BG | $114.32 | 48.6 | -8.75% | Rollover flag reversed — watch for further confirmation before treating as a full entry |
| CTVA | $85.68 | 64.0 | +14.45% | Cooled from overbought but still -2.29% from its 52-week high — hold, not a fresh discount |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | CTVA, CF, ADM, DE | Confirmed uptrends; DE's cooldown needs to stabilize before adding |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NTR | Thesis intact, repair continuing past RSI 50 |
| 🔍 WATCH | BG | Rollover flag reversed but needs more confirmation |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | MOS, FMC | Both regime collapse; FMC's 30-day swing is the sharpest deterioration in the book |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| FMC's -39.19% 30-day swing | The sharpest deterioration in the book this cycle, still collapse regime — worth checking for a specific catalyst |
| DE's cooldown | RSI eased from 65.0 to 46.4 — confirm this is digestion, not a bigger leg down |
| NTR's repair | Thesis intact, RSI now past 50 — watch for continued healing |
| BG's rollover-flag reversal | Improved rather than deteriorated — needs one more cycle to confirm it's durable |
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.