Food Security Scan

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Food Security Scan

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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 21 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-food-security.md

The whole book improved this cycle. ADM ripped to RSI 73.5 and now sits essentially at its 52-week high, BG's flagged recovery completed with a regime upgrade to uptrend and its first positive 30-day print in weeks, and even the book's two structural laggards stabilized: MOS's regime lifted out of collapse into downtrend, and FMC's brutal 30-day slide eased from -39.19% to -2.27%. NTR's repair and CTVA's near-high hold both continued as flagged last cycle.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for all 8 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-food-security (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 Broadly improving — ADM near its 52-week high, BG's recovery confirmed, even MOS and FMC stabilized
Key insight ADM's RSI 73.5 is the book's clearest rollover-risk watch given how close it sits to a fresh high

What's Going On

ADM is the standout this cycle — RSI jumped to 73.5 and its distance from its 52-week high narrowed to just -0.12%, essentially a fresh high, on a +14.38% 30-day gain. That's the hottest read in the book and worth flagging as an extension risk given RSI is now inside the near-overbought range. CTVA continues to hold its near-high position, RSI ticking up to 65.8 with its distance from high improving to -1.04%. CF extended its trend upgrade from last cycle — RSI moved to 64.2 and its 30-day gain accelerated to +17.96%. BG's flagged rollover-reversal completed this cycle: RSI moved from 48.6 to 57.1, its regime upgraded from weak-down to uptrend, and its 30-day reading flipped from -8.75% to +5.84% — the clearest follow-through repair story in the book. NTR's thesis-intact repair also continued, RSI now 55.9 with an accelerating +8.01% 30-day gain. Even the two structural laggards improved: MOS's regime lifted out of collapse into downtrend, though its 30-day reading flipped slightly negative (-3.36%); and FMC, last cycle's "sharpest deterioration" with a -39.19% 30-day swing, saw that slide ease dramatically to -2.27% — still in a collapse regime, but the freefall has paused. DE's cooldown from last cycle stabilized rather than deepened, RSI recovering to 51.0.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)

  • ADM: RSI 59.2 → 73.5, -0.12% from 52-week high (was -5.81%) — now essentially at a fresh high, 30-day accelerated to +14.38%.
  • BG: RSI 48.6 → 57.1, regime upgraded weak-down → uptrend, 30-day flipped from -8.75% to +5.84% — the clearest confirmed repair in the book.
  • CF: RSI 60.2 → 64.2, 30-day accelerated from +9.72% to +17.96%, -14.47% from high (was -17.64%).
  • NTR: RSI 51.7 → 55.9, thesis still intact, 30-day accelerated from +0.71% to +8.01%.
  • CTVA: RSI 64.0 → 65.8, -1.04% from high (was -2.29%) — continues to hold near its 52-week high.
  • MOS: regime upgraded collapse → downtrend; RSI 48.4 → 51.2 (crossed above 50 for the first time), 30-day flipped from +1.99% to -3.36%.
  • FMC: 30-day swing eased from -39.19% to -2.27% — the freefall paused, though it remains in a collapse regime.
  • DE: RSI 46.4 → 51.0, the cooldown flagged last cycle stabilized rather than deepened further.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels carry more weight than a single RSI move. MOS's exit from collapse into downtrend is a real structural improvement even though its 30-day number ticked negative — the label change matters more than the single data point. ADM's RSI 73.5 sits just inside the "near overbought" range; a strong uptrend name extending toward a fresh high isn't automatically a warning, but it's the one name in this book worth watching for a cooldown rather than chasing at these levels.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
ADM $85.90 73.5 +6.83% +14.38% +9.2% strong-up -0.12% (regime: uptrend)
CTVA $87.30 65.8 +1.89% +11.08% +4.2% strong-up -1.04% (regime: basing)
CF $121.42 64.2 +3.85% +17.96% +8.9% strong-up -14.47% (thesis: intact)
BG $119.15 57.1 +4.22% +5.84% +6.4% weak-down -11.66% (regime: uptrend)
NTR $67.28 55.9 +2.83% +8.01% +4.8% strong-up -21.18% (thesis: intact)
MOS $22.13 51.2 +2.88% -3.36% +1.7% weak-up -41.03% (regime: downtrend)
DE $597.24 51.0 +1.77% +1.62% -1.2% strong-up -11.41% (regime: basing)
FMC $11.21 45.9 +2.75% -2.27% +0.3% strong-down -74.51% (regime: collapse)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Strength, approaching overbought: ADM (RSI 73.5, essentially at 52-week high), CTVA (RSI 65.8, near high, basing).

Tier B — Confirmed uptrends, extending: CF, BG (fresh regime upgrade to uptrend).

Tier C — Repair stories, continuing: NTR (thesis intact), DE (cooldown stabilized).

Tier D — Structural laggards, stabilizing but unresolved: MOS (collapse → downtrend), FMC (still collapse, freefall paused).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
NTR $67.28 55.9 +8.01% Thesis intact, repair continuing, still -21.18% from high — the standout actionable name in the book
BG $119.15 57.1 +5.84% Regime upgrade confirmed this cycle, no longer just a flag
ADM $85.90 73.5 +14.38% Extended, essentially at a fresh high — not a fresh entry, watch for a cooldown before adding

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD CTVA, CF, DE Confirmed uptrends/basing, no fresh damage
📈 ACCUMULATE NTR, BG Both repair stories with confirmed follow-through this cycle
🔍 WATCH ADM, MOS ADM's RSI 73.5 near-overbought extension risk; MOS's regime improved but still no thesis rating
❌ DON'T BUY FMC Still collapse regime despite the pause in its freefall

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
ADM's RSI 73.5 near its 52-week high The book's clearest rollover-risk watch this cycle
BG's regime upgrade to uptrend Confirm this holds rather than reverting next cycle
MOS's exit from collapse into downtrend A modest but real structural improvement to track
FMC's paused freefall (30-day -39.19% → -2.27%) Still collapse regime — needs a genuine trend change before it's more than a stabilization

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.