Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The whole book improved this cycle. ADM ripped to RSI 73.5 and now sits essentially at its 52-week high, BG's flagged recovery completed with a regime upgrade to uptrend and its first positive 30-day print in weeks, and even the book's two structural laggards stabilized: MOS's regime lifted out of collapse into downtrend, and FMC's brutal 30-day slide eased from -39.19% to -2.27%. NTR's repair and CTVA's near-high hold both continued as flagged last cycle.
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for all 8 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-food-security (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Broadly improving — ADM near its 52-week high, BG's recovery confirmed, even MOS and FMC stabilized |
| Key insight | ADM's RSI 73.5 is the book's clearest rollover-risk watch given how close it sits to a fresh high |
What's Going On
ADM is the standout this cycle — RSI jumped to 73.5 and its distance from its 52-week high narrowed to just -0.12%, essentially a fresh high, on a +14.38% 30-day gain. That's the hottest read in the book and worth flagging as an extension risk given RSI is now inside the near-overbought range. CTVA continues to hold its near-high position, RSI ticking up to 65.8 with its distance from high improving to -1.04%. CF extended its trend upgrade from last cycle — RSI moved to 64.2 and its 30-day gain accelerated to +17.96%. BG's flagged rollover-reversal completed this cycle: RSI moved from 48.6 to 57.1, its regime upgraded from weak-down to uptrend, and its 30-day reading flipped from -8.75% to +5.84% — the clearest follow-through repair story in the book. NTR's thesis-intact repair also continued, RSI now 55.9 with an accelerating +8.01% 30-day gain. Even the two structural laggards improved: MOS's regime lifted out of collapse into downtrend, though its 30-day reading flipped slightly negative (-3.36%); and FMC, last cycle's "sharpest deterioration" with a -39.19% 30-day swing, saw that slide ease dramatically to -2.27% — still in a collapse regime, but the freefall has paused. DE's cooldown from last cycle stabilized rather than deepened, RSI recovering to 51.0.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)
- ADM: RSI 59.2 → 73.5, -0.12% from 52-week high (was -5.81%) — now essentially at a fresh high, 30-day accelerated to +14.38%.
- BG: RSI 48.6 → 57.1, regime upgraded weak-down → uptrend, 30-day flipped from -8.75% to +5.84% — the clearest confirmed repair in the book.
- CF: RSI 60.2 → 64.2, 30-day accelerated from +9.72% to +17.96%, -14.47% from high (was -17.64%).
- NTR: RSI 51.7 → 55.9, thesis still intact, 30-day accelerated from +0.71% to +8.01%.
- CTVA: RSI 64.0 → 65.8, -1.04% from high (was -2.29%) — continues to hold near its 52-week high.
- MOS: regime upgraded collapse → downtrend; RSI 48.4 → 51.2 (crossed above 50 for the first time), 30-day flipped from +1.99% to -3.36%.
- FMC: 30-day swing eased from -39.19% to -2.27% — the freefall paused, though it remains in a collapse regime.
- DE: RSI 46.4 → 51.0, the cooldown flagged last cycle stabilized rather than deepened further.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels carry more weight than a single RSI move. MOS's exit from collapse into downtrend is a real structural improvement even though its 30-day number ticked negative — the label change matters more than the single data point. ADM's RSI 73.5 sits just inside the "near overbought" range; a strong uptrend name extending toward a fresh high isn't automatically a warning, but it's the one name in this book worth watching for a cooldown rather than chasing at these levels.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | $85.90 | 73.5 | +6.83% | +14.38% | +9.2% | strong-up | -0.12% (regime: uptrend) |
| CTVA | $87.30 | 65.8 | +1.89% | +11.08% | +4.2% | strong-up | -1.04% (regime: basing) |
| CF | $121.42 | 64.2 | +3.85% | +17.96% | +8.9% | strong-up | -14.47% (thesis: intact) |
| BG | $119.15 | 57.1 | +4.22% | +5.84% | +6.4% | weak-down | -11.66% (regime: uptrend) |
| NTR | $67.28 | 55.9 | +2.83% | +8.01% | +4.8% | strong-up | -21.18% (thesis: intact) |
| MOS | $22.13 | 51.2 | +2.88% | -3.36% | +1.7% | weak-up | -41.03% (regime: downtrend) |
| DE | $597.24 | 51.0 | +1.77% | +1.62% | -1.2% | strong-up | -11.41% (regime: basing) |
| FMC | $11.21 | 45.9 | +2.75% | -2.27% | +0.3% | strong-down | -74.51% (regime: collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Strength, approaching overbought: ADM (RSI 73.5, essentially at 52-week high), CTVA (RSI 65.8, near high, basing).
Tier B — Confirmed uptrends, extending: CF, BG (fresh regime upgrade to uptrend).
Tier C — Repair stories, continuing: NTR (thesis intact), DE (cooldown stabilized).
Tier D — Structural laggards, stabilizing but unresolved: MOS (collapse → downtrend), FMC (still collapse, freefall paused).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $67.28 | 55.9 | +8.01% | Thesis intact, repair continuing, still -21.18% from high — the standout actionable name in the book |
| BG | $119.15 | 57.1 | +5.84% | Regime upgrade confirmed this cycle, no longer just a flag |
| ADM | $85.90 | 73.5 | +14.38% | Extended, essentially at a fresh high — not a fresh entry, watch for a cooldown before adding |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | CTVA, CF, DE | Confirmed uptrends/basing, no fresh damage |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NTR, BG | Both repair stories with confirmed follow-through this cycle |
| 🔍 WATCH | ADM, MOS | ADM's RSI 73.5 near-overbought extension risk; MOS's regime improved but still no thesis rating |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | FMC | Still collapse regime despite the pause in its freefall |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ADM's RSI 73.5 near its 52-week high | The book's clearest rollover-risk watch this cycle |
| BG's regime upgrade to uptrend | Confirm this holds rather than reverting next cycle |
| MOS's exit from collapse into downtrend | A modest but real structural improvement to track |
| FMC's paused freefall (30-day -39.19% → -2.27%) | Still collapse regime — needs a genuine trend change before it's more than a stabilization |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.