Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The fertilizer/ag-input complex is broadly weak — FMC is in collapse (RSI 41.1, -74% from high, strong-down, death cross), MOS in collapse (RSI 45, -43% from high, death cross), and the nitrogen/potash names (CF RSI 36.3 -17% 30D, NTR RSI 37.1 -12% 30D, BG RSI 36.3) cluster at the low end. DE (RSI 58.3, +5.5% 30D, strong-up) is the lone strength — the ag-equipment name basing constructively. No oversold (<30) names, but the fertilizer sleeve (CF/NTR/BG/ADM RSI 36-39) is approaching it on broken/downtrend charts. Negative 1y alpha across nearly the whole book (MOS -66, NTR -18, CTVA -20).
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). MOS/CF/BG/DE/CTVA 2d stale (06-16/06-17) — flagged inline. All US-listed.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broadly weak — fertilizer (FMC/MOS/CF/NTR) in collapse/downtrend, -27% to -74% from highs; only DE (ag-equipment) holds a strong uptrend. Negative 1y alpha across the book |
| Key insight | The food-security thesis is not in the tape — the inputs (fertilizer/agchem) are broken or basing, not bid. FMC (-74% from high) and MOS (-43%) are structurally damaged; the nitrogen names (CF/NTR/BG, RSI 36-37) cluster near oversold but on downtrends. DE is the only name a trend-follower can own here |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | $588.47 | 58.3 | +4.6% | +0.44% | +5.45% | +3.98% | -12.60% | 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale) |
| CTVA | $77.37 | 47.9 | 0.0% | +2.68% | -1.83% | -0.67% | -8.22% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| MOS | $21.69 | 45.0 | -3.0% | +4.36% | +2.36% | -24.00% | -43.26% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| FMC | $11.55 | 41.1 | -6.0% | -2.70% | -9.48% | -16.67% | -74.15% | ❌ Don't Buy |
| ADM | $75.10 | 39.0 | -5.8% | -3.62% | -4.78% | +10.13% | -12.03% | 🔍 Watch |
| NTR | $62.86 | 37.1 | -7.9% | -0.69% | -12.19% | -17.09% | -26.36% | 🔍 Watch |
| CF | $105.85 | 36.3 ↓ | -6.6% | -3.12% | -17.21% | -15.35% | -27.49% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| BG | $116.14 | 36.3 ↓ | -6.6% | -7.38% | -4.44% | -4.26% | -16.53% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
Tier Analysis
Leader / Hold (RSI 58): DE (RSI 58.3, +5.5% 30D, strong-up, golden cross, basing regime, -12.6% from high, thesisState unrated) — Deere is the lone uptrend in the book; ag-equipment holding while inputs break. The only trend-follower-ownable name here.
Neutral / Watch (RSI 45-48): CTVA (RSI 47.9, flat 30D, basing, -8.2% from high — the steadiest agchem/seed name), MOS (RSI 45.0, +2.4% 30D bounce but collapse regime, death cross, -43% from high).
Weak / Approaching-Oversold Watch (RSI 36-41): FMC (RSI 41.1, -74% from high, -88% 5y, strong-down, death cross, collapse — structurally broken, don't buy), ADM (RSI 39.0, -4.8% 30D, +10% 3M, pullback), NTR (RSI 37.1, -12.2% 30D, -17% 3M, down regime, thesisState intact), CF (RSI 36.3, -17.2% 30D, -15% 3M, weak-down), BG (RSI 36.3, -4.4% 30D, basing). The nitrogen/potash/grain cluster sits at the low end — near oversold but on downtrends/pullbacks, not confirmed floors.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | $105.85 | 36.3 ↓ | -17.21% | Lowest-RSI nitrogen name, -27% from high; weak-down but golden cross intact — watch for RSI <30 or SMA20 reclaim before acting (06-17, 2d stale) |
| NTR | $62.86 | 37.1 | -12.19% | Potash/nitrogen, -26% from high, down regime, thesis intact; -7.9% vs SMA20 — watch for a floor, not a buy yet |
| CTVA | $77.37 | 47.9 | -1.83% | Steadiest name (basing, flat 30D, -8% from high); the lowest-risk food-security hold if the sleeve turns |
| DE | $588.47 | 58.3 | +5.45% | Only uptrend; strong-up, basing, -12.6% from high; trend-follower's pick — watch for SMA20 hold on dips (06-17, 2d stale) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | DE | Lone strong uptrend; ag-equipment basing constructively, RSI 58.3 |
| 🔍 WATCH | CTVA | Steadiest agchem (basing, -8% from high); lowest-risk if sleeve turns |
| 🔍 WATCH | NTR, CF, BG, ADM, MOS | Fertilizer/grain at low RSI (36-45) but downtrend/collapse — no floors confirmed |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | FMC | -74% from high, -88% 5y, collapse + death cross — structurally broken |
What Changed
- Fertilizer complex broadly weak — CF (-17.2% 30D), NTR (-12.2% 30D) leading the nitrogen/potash slide; both at RSI 36-37 on downtrends
- FMC structurally broken — RSI 41.1, -74% from high, -88% 5y, collapse + death cross; the worst chart in the book
- MOS in collapse — RSI 45, -43% from high, death cross, alpha1y -66; a +2.4% 30D bounce inside a broken trend
- DE the lone strength — RSI 58.3, +5.5% 30D, strong-up, basing; ag-equipment diverging from broken inputs
- CTVA steadiest — RSI 47.9, flat 30D, basing, only -8.2% from high; the least-damaged agchem name
- Negative 1y alpha across the book — MOS -66, NTR -18, CTVA -20, FMC -98; the food-security inputs are underperforming the market broadly
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Food-security thesis is NOT in the tape — inputs broken/basing, not bid | A cascade/shortage frame would show fertilizer bid; instead CF/NTR/MOS/FMC are weak — the catalyst isn't priced (or isn't happening) |
| Only DE (equipment) holds an uptrend | Ag-equipment diverges from ag-inputs — the durable owner is downstream of the fertilizer break |
| Fertilizer cluster (CF/NTR/BG RSI 36-37) near oversold but on downtrends | Low RSI here is weakness, not a confirmed dip — need a trend turn, not just an RSI level |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying FMC on "-74% from high = value" | Collapse regime, -88% 5y, death cross — a value trap / falling knife, not a setup |
| Reading MOS's +2.4% 30D as a turn | Still collapse regime, -43% from high, death cross; a bounce inside a broken trend |
Open Questions
- The food-security-cascade reopen trigger is MOS >$25 RSI >50 AND DBA >$28 — MOS is $21.69 RSI 45, so the frame stays retired; does any single-name catalyst (NTR/CF) warrant a look before the basket-level trigger? (per MEMORY reopen note)
- Is the fertilizer weakness a demand/pricing cycle or a structural derate (FMC -88% 5y)? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.