Food Security Scan
Scan
Food Security Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 23 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-food-security.md
The food security cohort is mostly weak: NTR, CF, DE, CTVA all in approaching-oversold territory (-8 to -14% 30D), FMC is a broken thesis (-65% 1y, RSI 47), MOS is dead-cat bouncing — only ADM is in constructive strong-up (+15% 3M), with CROX-style outlier CROX in food-adjacent consumer.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mostly weak — broad ag inputs under pressure; ADM the lone constructive name |
| Entry candidates | NTR (RSI 39, near oversold, -10% 30D), CF (RSI 39, -9% 30D), DE (RSI 40, -8% 30D) — all approaching oversold range |
| Broken | FMC (RSI 47 but -65% 1y, strong-down, death cross), MOS (RSI 58 but death cross, -37% from high) |
| Key insight | The entire ag-input complex (fertilizers, crop protection, machinery) is in the same weak-down channel — this is a macro/crop-cycle pressure, not a stock-specific event. ADM (grain trading/processing) decoupling from the ag inputs is notable. |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $68.55 | 39.3 | -3.9% | -0.54% | -9.80% | -8.84% | -19.69% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| MOS | $23.90 | 58.0 | +6.3% | +8.18% | +3.73% | -11.51% | -37.48% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| CF | $112.35 | 39.2 | -7.8% | -3.59% | -9.17% | +8.15% | -20.86% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| DE | $542.18 | 40.0 | -3.7% | +3.20% | -8.08% | -13.81% | -19.58% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| ADM | $79.78 | 61.3 | +1.5% | +3.42% | +7.74% | +15.37% | -4.00% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| BG | $123.30 | 51.0 | 0.0% | +3.84% | -2.38% | +2.84% | -7.94% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| CTVA | $78.28 | 41.0 | -3.2% | +1.22% | -3.37% | -2.78% | -8.58% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| FMC | $13.66 | 46.6 | +0.6% | +4.14% | -11.18% | -4.68% | -69.50% | strong-down | ❌ Broken |
Tier Analysis
Approaching Oversold (RSI 35-42) — Potential Patient Entry
- NTR ($68.55, RSI 39.3) — Nutrien, world's largest potash producer. -10% 30D, -9% 3M, -20% from 52wk high. Weak-down but not yet capitulating. Fertilizer demand tied to crop economics; positioning against food-security regime change.
- CF ($112.35, RSI 39.2) — CF Industries, nitrogen fertilizer. -9% 30D, -7.8% from SMA20. Similar trajectory to NTR. -21% from high.
- DE ($542.18, RSI 40.0) — Deere & Company. -8% 30D, -14% 3M, -20% from high. Precision agriculture thesis intact but near-term earnings pressure.
- CTVA ($78.28, RSI 41.0) — Corteva Agriscience, crop protection. -3% 30D, -3% 3M. Weakest 3M of the fertilizer/ag input group by trajectory but least severe drawdown.
Neutral (RSI 43-58)
- BG ($123.30, RSI 51.0) — Bunge Global, grain trading. Flat 30D, mild weak-down trend. At exact SMA20 (vs SMA20 = 0%). Neutral hold.
- FMC ($13.66, RSI 46.6) — FMC Corporation, crop chemicals. RSI reads neutral but underlying trend is strong-down; -65% from 52wk high; death cross. RSI misleading here — trust the trend.
- MOS ($23.90, RSI 58.0) — Mosaic, phosphate/potash. +8% 7D bounce but death cross active, -37% from high. Bounce within downtrend.
Constructive (RSI > 55, Strong-Up)
- ADM ($79.78, RSI 61.3, strong-up) — Archer Daniels Midland. +8% 30D, +15% 3M. Near 52wk high (-4%). The grain processing / food infrastructure play is decoupling from ag inputs. Best name in cohort.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | $79.78 | $75-82 | 61.3 | +7.74% | Only strong-up name; -4% from high; accumulate on minor pullbacks |
| NTR | $68.55 | $65-70 | 39.3 | -9.80% | Approaching oversold; patient entry if thesis is food-security long thesis; need RSI < 35 for conviction |
| CF | $112.35 | $108-115 | 39.2 | -9.17% | Same setup as NTR; nitrogen fertilizer bottoming candidate; wait for stabilization |
| DE | $542.18 | $520-545 | 40.0 | -8.08% | Deere near SMA200; precision ag thesis intact; -20% from high |
| CTVA | $78.28 | $75-80 | 41.0 | -3.37% | Minor weakness; crop protection thesis; smallest drawdown in cohort |
| MOS | $23.90 | wait | 58.0 | +3.73% | Death cross active, -37% from high; bounce not confirmed as reversal |
| FMC | — | avoid | 46.6 | -11.18% | -70% from high, death cross, strong-down; thesis broken |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | ADM | Only constructive name; strong-up, near highs, grain processing thesis |
| 🔍 WATCH / PATIENCE | NTR, CF, DE, CTVA | Approaching oversold range; food-security thesis still intact if macro confirms; don't rush |
| 🔍 WATCH | BG, MOS | Neutral/bouncing; need trend confirmation before entry |
| ❌ BROKEN | FMC | -70% from high, death cross, -65% 1y; thesis destroyed |
What Changed (directional)
- Entire ag-input complex weakened in May — NTR, CF, DE all -8 to -10% 30D simultaneously. This is macro pressure, not idiosyncratic.
- ADM is the sole outperformer — grain trading/processing decoupling from upstream input suppliers. Food infrastructure vs food inputs split is real.
- FMC is now effectively broken — -69.5% from 52wk high, -65% 1y, death cross. The crop chemical thesis has failed; remove from food-security thesis basket unless deep-value thesis is specifically constructed.
- MOS bouncing +8% 7D — but on a death cross with -37% from high. One week does not make a reversal; treat as noise until RSI > 60 with golden cross.
- DE approaching SMA200 — RSI 40 with price near SMA200 ($519 support area) is the most technically interesting setup; Deere's precision ag business is structurally sound.
- The reopen trigger for food-security-cascade perspective — memo specifies MOS > $25 RSI > 50 AND DBA > $28 both required. MOS at $23.90 remains below the $25 trigger.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.