Food Security Scan

Scan

Food Security Scan

Scan symbols 7
ADMCFCTVADEEFMCMOSNTR
Watchlists 1
@food-security
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 21 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-04-28-food-security.mdscan slugfood-securitysource typescan-archive

Energy→agriculture cascade is bifurcating — ADM/CF/CTVA leading on input cost squeeze and ag-prices firming, while MOS and FMC capitulate (RSI 37/44, deep underwater). r/wsb "farm bankruptcies surging" thread aligns with FMC's -65.9% from high and DE's RSI 43 weakness — the WEAKEST link in the cascade is the FARMER, not the input maker.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Mixed cascade — fertilizer/seed firming, machinery weak, FMC broken
Key insight ADM RSI 60 + 17% above SMA200 + only -1.9% from high is the cleanest "ag won" trade; FMC -66% from high signals real distress at the farm level
r/wsb confirmation Farm bankruptcy chatter aligns with DE pulling back to RSI 43 (-16.4% from high) and FMC strong-down. Don't be early on the "ag boom" — the farmer is squeezed

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Action
NTR $72.91 48.2 -0.8% +0.61% -4.07% +3.24% -14.6% weak-down 🔍 Watch
MOS $23.19 37.2 -6.6% -4.60% -7.24% -16.61% -39.3% strong-down ❌ Avoid
CF $122.31 50.6 -1.0% +5.22% -11.11% +30.77% -13.8% strong-up 🔍 Watch
DE $563.86 42.9 -3.5% -4.68% +1.80% +6.69% -16.4% weak-down 🔍 Watch
ADM $72.80 59.5 +3.4% +1.86% +1.46% +9.61% -1.9% strong-up 🔒 Hold
CTVA $78.94 39.9 -3.8% -1.28% -4.83% +7.15% -7.8% weak-down 📈 Accumulate
FMC $15.26 44.3 -8.9% -4.25% -8.79% -3.60% -65.9% strong-down ❌ Avoid

Tier Analysis

Strong-Up (1): ADM only. RSI 60, 17% above SMA200, +57.5% YoY with +24.7% alpha. Grain trader/processor wins on volatility regardless of who blinks first in farmer/fertilizer fight.

Holding Up (RSI 45-55): CF (50.6), NTR (48.2). CF golden cross + 31% above SMA200 — nitrogen producer thesis intact despite -11% month. NTR mid-pack but holding.

Pulling Back (RSI 35-45): DE (42.9), FMC (44.3), CTVA (39.9), MOS (37.2). DE -16.4% from high lines up with farm income/equipment-purchase-postponement story. CTVA the best of this tier — golden cross intact, only -7.8% from high.

Broken (death cross): MOS, FMC. FMC -65.9% from high, -84.9% 5Y, -90.7% alpha 1Y. This is the canary — crop chemicals demand is collapsing. MOS strong-down, -39.3% from high.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
CTVA $78.94 <$80 39.9 -4.8% Pullback to SMA50 area, golden cross intact, -7.8% from high
CF $122.31 <$125 50.6 -11.1% Strong-up + golden cross digesting +30% 3M run
NTR $72.91 <$75 48.2 -4.1% Sideways on SMA200; safer fertilizer exposure than MOS
DE $563.86 <$580 42.9 +1.8% Pullback but death cross? No — golden cross intact, -16% from high

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD ADM Only strong-up name with golden cross + 17% above SMA200
📈 ACCUMULATE CTVA Best risk/reward in pullback tier — seeds franchise + golden cross
🔍 WATCH NTR, CF, DE Awaiting confirmation; CF pulling back from +31% run
❌ AVOID MOS, FMC Death cross + multi-year alpha collapse; FMC -66% from high

Cascade Read-Through

If geopolitical energy shock is real (UAE/OPEC, Mideast supply risk), the textbook cascade is:

  1. Natgas up → fertilizer input cost up → fertilizer prices up (CF, NTR, MOS positive)
  2. Diesel up → planting cost up → farmer margin squeezed (DE negative)
  3. Crop prices firm → grain processors win (ADM positive)

What we're SEEING:

  • ADM positive ✅
  • CF strong-up but pulling back (golden cross holding) — partial confirmation
  • DE weak (RSI 43, -16% from high) ✅ confirms farmer squeeze
  • FMC/MOS broken — but FMC is mostly crop chemistry/specialty, not pure fertilizer; this might be a company-specific story (lithium/battery-chem exposure dying) AS WELL AS demand weakness
  • UNG -44% from high — natgas not actually cooperating with the cascade thesis right now

So the cascade is partially real, partially priced in already (CF +30% 3M ran ahead), and the FMC/MOS broken-tier suggests the "demand for crop inputs" is weaker than commodity-price action implies. r/wsb farm-bankruptcy thread is consistent with the DE/FMC weakness.

What Changed vs Apr 10

  • CF gave back. Was strong-up RSI 50+, popped +30% 3M, now RSI 50 with -11% month. Mean-reverting from overbought.
  • MOS continued to break: Strong-down with deep alpha drag (-115 3Y).
  • ADM emerged as leader: +9.6% 3M and only -1.9% from 52wk high — relative strength tells.
  • DE softened to RSI 43. Pullback consistent with farmer-distress narrative from r/wsb.
  • FMC didn't recover — still -66% from high, deep alpha drag (-160 3Y, -162 5Y).

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
FMC -65.9% from high while ADM -1.9% from high in same scan Farmer/chemical-input squeeze is real; processors win, input-makers lose
CF's +30.77% 3M followed by -11.11% month Cascade priced in fast; chase carefully
DE RSI 43 + r/wsb bankruptcy thread Equipment buyers postponing — confirms farmer income compression

Open Questions

  • Is FMC's collapse company-specific (lithium pivot misfire) or sector demand collapse? Need fundamentals dive.
  • If natgas (UNG) keeps breaking down, the fertilizer cost-push thesis weakens — does CF roll over too?
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanFood Security Cascade Scan Apr 13 ScanFood Security Apr 12 ArchiveFood Security Cascade May 29 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 16 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 20 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 25 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 26 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 7 ScanFood Security Scan

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