Food Security

Scan

Food Security

Scan symbols 7
ADMCFCTVADEEFMCMOSNTR
Watchlists 1
@food-security
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 19 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-04-13-food-security.md

2026-04-14 Food Security Scan

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 CF (canary) flashing caution — pulled back -7.8% in 7D after a +44% 3M run; rest of the field mixed
Key insight The cascade thesis is Stage 2 (fertilizer repricing) but NOT yet Stage 3 (food inflation visible) — use CF's pullback as a tell

The food security cascade has three stages. Stage 1 is energy price shock (done — oil and gas spiked). Stage 2 is fertilizer repricing (in progress — CF up +44% in 3 months before this week's pullback). Stage 3 is upstream agricultural input demand (not yet priced — DE still modest, CTVA barely moving). The canary is CF Industries: it ran hard because nitrogen fertilizer prices follow natural gas, and if the Hormuz blockade raises LNG prices, CF is the first domino. But the -7.8% 7-day retreat tells you the market is second-guessing whether the energy shock persists.

The divergence in the basket is telling. CF and CTVA are strong-up with golden crosses. MOS (phosphate/potash) is in strong-down with a death cross — the potash trade has structurally failed for 3 years. FMC (crop protection chemicals) is recovering from a brutal multi-year decline, up +31.6% in 30 days, but still -60% from its 52wk high and death cross intact. NTR and ADM are neutral/sideways.

The thesis only fully activates at Stage 3 — when drought, shipping disruptions, or energy-cost pass-through forces farmers to pay up for inputs AND when grain traders start bidding ADM and Bunge. We're not there. Watch CF closely.

Food Security Price Table

Stock Price 7D 30D 3M RSI vs SMA200 Status Action
NTR $74.38 -1.7% -3.7% +13.2% 49.1 +18.7% 🟢 Strong-up 📈 Accumulate
MOS $24.54 -5.9% -11.3% -10.5% 41.3 -15.8% 🔴 Strong-down ❌ Don't Buy
CF $121.68 -7.8% -0.5% +43.8% 49.5 +32.8% 🟢 Strong-up 🔥 Canary Watch
DE $603.04 +6.2% +5.7% +18.1% 58.0 +18.7% 🟢 Strong-up 📈 Accumulate
ADM $69.82 -4.6% -1.3% +8.9% 47.0 +13.7% 🟢 Strong-up 🔍 Watch
CTVA $83.51 -1.5% +5.7% +19.7% 59.2 +17.5% 🟢 Strong-up 📈 Accumulate
FMC $18.07 +0.0% +31.6% +19.9% 66.8 -24.8% 🟡 Weak-up 🔍 Watch

Cascade Stage Monitor

Stage Signal Status
Stage 1: Energy shock Oil +77% 3M, gas elevated 🔥 ACTIVE
Stage 2: Fertilizer repricing CF +44% 3M, now pulling back -7.8% 🟡 STALLING
Stage 3: Upstream ag input demand DE, NTR, ADM modest moves only ⏳ NOT YET

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔥 WATCH CF The canary — -7.8% 7D pullback after +44% run; next move tells the story
📈 ACCUMULATE NTR, DE, CTVA Golden cross, strong-up, not overextended — long-term food security positioning
🔍 WATCH ADM, FMC ADM needs Stage 3 to activate; FMC recovering but death cross still intact
❌ DON'T BUY MOS Death cross, -15.8% below SMA200, -35% from 52wk high — broken

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
CF -7.8% 7D after +44% 3M run Stage 2 stall signal — watch for reacceleration vs. reversal
MOS death cross despite food security narrative Potash/phosphate market has structural oversupply separate from nitrogen story
DE golden cross + +18.7% vs SMA200 Equipment demand following input cost pressure — earliest sign of Stage 3
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 12 ArchiveFood Security Cascade Apr 26 ScanFood Security Cascade Scan Apr 28 ScanFood Security Scan May 29 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 16 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 20 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 25 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 26 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 7 ScanFood Security Scan

No direct external sources are attached to this read.