Source

Child perspective of: [Iran War & Oil Crisis] Source: [Revan's Food Security Analysis]

Update — April 14, 2026: Blockade Intensifies Stage 1 + CF Entry

Blockade intensifies the energy shock — Stage 1 of the cascade is escalating. Naval blockade adds supply disruption on top of already elevated energy prices. 60 nations have adopted emergency stockholding measures for both energy and food.

CF pulled back into our entry zone. $118.57, RSI 46, -6.7% below SMA20. Target entry was $115-120. If Camp 2 (nonlinear pricing, late May) is correct, the cascade accelerates to Stage 3 by June and CF has significant upside on nitrogen margin expansion.

Paper trade executed: Bought CF at $118.57 in claude-momentum ($2,000). Food Security pure-play, Camp 2 bet.

MOS still in death cross (-35% from high, RSI 41). Market STILL hasn't connected the dots to the broader ag chain. The CF/MOS divergence remains the opportunity signal.

See:

Status: ACTIVE — Energy shock → fertilizer inflation → agricultural price cascade is live. CF +51% 3M proves the chain is transmitting.

Narrative arc: Escalation — energy prices transmitting through fertilizer chain into agriculture

This is the second-order effect of the Iran war that nobody's pricing correctly. When oil goes from $80 to $138, the financial media talks about gasoline prices. What they miss: nitrogen fertilizer production runs on natural gas...