Food Security Scan

Scan

Food Security Scan

Scan symbols 8
ADMBGCFCTVADEEFMCMOSNTR
Watchlists 1
@food-security
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 19 rows · screens, not recommendations

The food security basket is broadly weak: NTR, CF, and FMC are all in oversold/approaching-oversold territory with negative 30D momentum; DE is the lone constructive name near SMA support; FMC is a value trap -74% from 52wk high with a confirmed death cross — the cascade thesis remains on hold pending fertilizer price recovery.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Bearish — cohort broadly weak; no RSI < 30 but three names in the 35-40 danger zone; no strong-up trends
Most oversold CF (RSI 35.9, -7.7% below SMA20, -15.7% 30D), NTR (RSI 37.1, -4.1% below SMA20, -8.6% 30D)
Structural breakdown FMC (RSI 40.2, strong-down, death cross, -74% from 52wk high), MOS (RSI 45.0, strong-down, death cross, -43% from 52wk high)
Sole hold DE (RSI 57.0, strong-up, +4.3% above SMA20, basing regime)
Key insight MEMORY reopen trigger for food-security-cascade requires MOS > $25 RSI > 50 AND DBA > $28 (both required) — MOS at $21.69 RSI 45 does NOT meet the bar; perspective remains retired

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
NTR $65.48 37.1 -4.1% -0.69% -8.57% 🔍 Watch
MOS $21.69 45.0 -3.0% +4.36% +2.36% ❌ Don't Buy
CF $105.59 35.9 -7.7% -1.16% -15.68% 🔍 Watch
DE $585.29 57.0 +4.3% +0.63% +3.68% 🔒 Hold
ADM $78.02 46.5 -2.5% -0.73% -2.94% 🔍 Watch
BG $119.42 40.3 -4.1% -1.97% -3.62% 🔍 Watch
CTVA $76.87 45.1 -0.8% +0.95% -4.97% 🔍 Watch
FMC $11.60 40.2 -6.3% +2.22% -14.39% ❌ Don't Buy

Tier Analysis

RSI < 25 — Extreme Oversold

None.

RSI 25–40 — Approaching Oversold / Watch Closely

  • CF (RSI 35.9, $105.59, -7.7% below SMA20, -15.7% 30D, -25.6% from 52wk high) — CF Industries nitrogen fertilizer. Oversold, but trend is weak-down and 3M is -14%. Not yet a clean buy; needs base.
  • NTR (RSI 37.1, $65.48, -4.1% below SMA20, -8.6% 30D, -23.3% from 52wk high) — Nutrien. Similar setup to CF; approaching oversold but weak-down trend. Better long-term business than CF (diversified crop nutrients + retail).
  • BG (RSI 40.3, -4.1% below SMA20, -3.6% 30D) — Bunge Global grain trader. Consolidating weakly; approaching the watch zone.
  • FMC (RSI 40.2, -6.3% below SMA20, -14.4% 30D, strong-down, death cross, -74% from 52wk high) — FMC Corp crop protection. Do not confuse low RSI with value here: this is a structural breakdown, not an oversold bounce setup.

RSI 40–55 — Neutral / Weak

  • MOS (RSI 45.0, strong-down, death cross, -43.3% from 52wk high, -24% 3M) — Mosaic potash. Death cross + strong-down = avoid despite RSI 45. The reopen trigger ($25 + RSI 50) is miles away.
  • ADM (RSI 46.5, -2.5% below SMA20, -2.9% 30D) — Archer Daniels Midland. Consolidating; strong-up trend but -8.6% from 52wk high and choppy.
  • CTVA (RSI 45.1, -0.8% below SMA20, -5.0% 30D) — Corteva crop science. Weak-down trend; basing. Agricultural input stocks broadly soft.

RSI 55+ — Holding

  • DE (RSI 57.0, $585.29, +4.3% above SMA20, strong-up, +11.6% above SMA200) — Deere & Company. Lone constructive name. Basing regime; solid long-term compounder for ag equipment supercycle. Not a catalyst play here.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
NTR $65.48 wait $62–66 37.1 -8.57% Best fertilizer compounder; wait for RSI floor + price base before entry; -23% from 52wk high
CF $105.59 wait $100–108 35.9 -15.68% Nitrogen fertilizer; approaching oversold; ONLY enter after clear base — do not front-run
DE $585.29 $565–590 57.0 +3.68% Deere; SMA20 support zone; basing regime; add on pullbacks within strong-up

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD DE Lone strong-up trend in cohort; ag equipment compounder
🔍 WATCH NTR, CF, ADM, BG, CTVA Weak or approaching oversold; monitor for base formation
❌ DON'T BUY MOS, FMC Structural breakdowns (death cross + strong-down); MOS -43%, FMC -74% from 52wk high; not bottoms

What Changed

  • Perspective reopen gate not met — food-security-cascade perspective is RETIRED (MEMORY). Reopen requires MOS > $25 RSI > 50 AND DBA > $28. Current: MOS $21.69, RSI 45 — well below threshold. Do not reopen.
  • CF sharpest 30D drop — -15.7% 30D; RSI 35.9. Natural gas costs are the nitrogen fertilizer margin swing factor; no catalyst visible.
  • FMC deepened — -14.4% 30D, -74% from 52wk high. Crop protection oversupply / glyphosate pricing remains a structural headwind.
  • DE is the sole constructive name — ag machinery on a slower but more durable cycle than input chemicals; farm income holding better than input margins.
  • No golden signals — no RSI < 30 + insider buying combos in this cohort. Patience required.
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 20 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 25 ScanFood Security Scan Jun 26 ScanFood Security Scan May 29 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 7 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 11 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 17 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 25 ScanFood Security Scan Jul 28 ScanFood Security Scan

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