The cleanest numeric counter to the hyperscaler-debt-bubble framing making the rounds: contracted backlog (RPO), not vibes, against the borrowing. Worth holding next to every 'AI leverage' headline this earnings season.
Hyperscalers have raised about $270bn of debt this year against $1.9T of revenue already under contract. Seven dollars of signed backlog for every dollar borrowed. Microsoft $627bn RPO. Oracle $553bn, up 325% YoY. Google Cloud $460bn. AWS $364bn before the Anthropic deal. The
The cleanest numeric counter to the hyperscaler-debt-bubble framing making the rounds: contracted backlog (RPO), not vibes, against the borrowing. Worth holding next to every 'AI leverage' headline this earnings season.
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