1. The Read
Friday's September 4 close is the corpus for the Tuesday, September 8 capital window; Monday is the Labor Day holiday. Campaign 1's entry map keeps memory and electricity as the two primaries, with physical-AI components back on the bench.
Micron is the one BUY while its cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds. The historical RSI reset was slightly above the preferred guide; the completed flag and breakout justify an explicit analyst exception while the strict screen remains EXTENDED. Losing the ceiling returns the entry to WAIT; 887.61 is earlier pattern failure and 606.48 is the separate long-trend invalidation. Five supported company theses wait on timing, and ten older calls need company evidence as well as price confirmation. Every jagged name stays out of BUY.
The desk's completed 30-day BUY calls beat SPY in 3 of 11 cases; misses averaged 10.37 percentage points behind it. There is no complete 90-day BUY grade yet. Review the plan September 11, with the inflation release, financing conditions and shipping disruptions as named risks. These are levels and conditions, with the full evidence and exceptions in the map.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
558 advancing 541 declining 66.1% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
The previous brief read the same market close, so no session has passed to diff against.
3. What to Watch
Watch the September 11 inflation release, a sustained tightening in credit or Treasury yields, and any official shipping disruption. Recheck the map after the September 11 close; a failed Micron breakout hold returns its entry to WAIT.
4. Focus List
No authored takes in this issue — the Take column shows each name's mechanical tape state.
5. Sector Scorecard
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
No authored lane assessments in this issue — the metrics are the record; the read lives in the chapters above.
6. The Front Page
Monster Watch · 158 of 1146 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 124 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… Financials Neutral -0.2% 30D Financials - Banks/Investment firms (JPM, BAC, GS, MS, BLK), brokers (SCHW, HOOD), insurance (AMP, PGR, MET, BDN), fintech (FIS, FISV), card-network (COF — absorbed Discover/DFS via 2025 acquisition), exchanges (CME),… Supply Chain Traces Neutral -0.3% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… Thebuildout Metrology Inspection Neutral -0.4% 30D TheBuildout · Metrology & Inspection — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/metrology-inspection), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Energy Neutral -0.7% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. Thebuildout China AI Semiconductor Stack Neutral -0.8% 30D TheBuildout · China AI Semiconductor Stack — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/china-ai-semiconductor-stack), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Consumer Staples Neutral -0.9% 30D Consumer staples - Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Colgate, Clorox, Mondelez, General Mills. Recession-proof dividend plays. BALL = Ball Corp aluminum packaging (KO/PEP customer supply-chain… CPU Shortage Supply Chain Neutral -0.9% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Thebuildout AI Data Center Operators Neoclouds Neutral -1.3% 30D TheBuildout · AI Data Center Operators & NeoClouds — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-data-center-operators-neoclouds), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Neoclouds Neutral -1.3% 30D GPU cloud and AI infrastructure providers, including power-rich data-center and former crypto-mining operators. Thebuildout Space Data Centers Orbital Compute Neutral -1.4% 30D TheBuildout · Space Data Centers & Orbital Compute — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/space-data-centers-orbital-compute), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Nearline Storage Neutral -1.6% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. Thebuildout Custom AI Silicon Hyperscaler Asics Neutral -1.7% 30D TheBuildout · Custom AI Silicon & Hyperscaler ASICs — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/custom-ai-silicon-hyperscaler-asics), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Space Neutral -1.8% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors Neutral -1.8% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Switch & NIC Vendors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-switch-nic-vendors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Chemicals Outflow -2.2% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. Defensive Outflow -2.2% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… Thebuildout Eda Software Outflow -2.2% 30D TheBuildout · EDA Software — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/eda-software), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 6… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging 2d3d Leaders Outflow -2.3% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging (2.5D/3D) Leaders — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-2d3d-leaders), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout HBM Memory Outflow -2.3% 30D TheBuildout · HBM Memory — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/hbm-memory), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 18 of… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -2.6% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. EV Clean Energy Outflow -2.6% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Semis Outflow -2.7% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas Outflow -2.7% 30D TheBuildout · Renewable Energy Developers (Hyperscaler PPAs) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases Outflow -2.8% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty & Electronic Gases — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-electronic-gases), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals Outflow -2.8% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty Gases & Process Chemicals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-gases-process-chemicals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Nuclear Energy Data Centers Outflow -2.9% 30D TheBuildout · Nuclear Energy for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/nuclear-energy-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Humanoid Robots Embodied AI Outflow -3.3% 30D TheBuildout · Humanoid Robots & Embodied AI — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/humanoid-robots-embodied-ai), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware Outflow -3.3% 30D TheBuildout · AI Sensors & Perception Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-sensors-perception-hardware), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Lithography Equipment Outflow -3.3% 30D TheBuildout · Lithography Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithography-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… AI Infrastructure Outflow -3.3% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Cybersec Outflow -3.4% 30D Cybersecurity & Networking - firewall/SASE (FTNT, PANW — PANW absorbed CYBR via 2025 acquisition), endpoint (CRWD, S), zero-trust (ZS, OKTA), edge/CDN (NET), embedded/automotive QNX + cybersec (BB BlackBerry — surfaced… Thebuildout Autonomous Vehicles Self Driving Outflow -3.4% 30D TheBuildout · Autonomous Vehicles & Self-Driving — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/autonomous-vehicles-self-driving), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure Outflow -3.6% 30D TheBuildout · Racks, Chassis & Mechanical Infrastructure — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/racks-chassis-mechanical-infrastructure), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon Outflow -3.6% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Networking Silicon — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-networking-silicon), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Lazarus Outflow -3.7% 30D Fallen-quality WATCH list (NOT buys): former leaders down 40-80% held in quarantine until they prove a trend reversal — the 'Lazarus signal' (pop -> flag -> breakout / life pouring in). Entry only on confirmation, never… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Package Substrate & Interposer Ecosystem — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Glass Core & Panel-Level Packaging — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/glass-core-panel-level-packaging), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking Outflow -3.9% 30D TheBuildout · High-Speed PCBs (Server/Networking Grade) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/high-speed-pcbs-server-networking), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries Outflow -4.0% 30D TheBuildout · Trailing-Edge Logic & Specialty Foundries — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect Outflow -4.1% 30D TheBuildout · Connector & High-Speed Interconnect Suppliers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/connector-high-speed-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules Outflow -4.1% 30D TheBuildout · Optical Transceivers & Modules — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/optical-transceivers-modules), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling Outflow -4.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Fiber & High-Speed Cabling — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Electricity Outflow -4.6% 30D The electricity layer of the AI buildout, consolidated: generation, grid and transmission, transformers, distribution and busways, turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, UPS and storage, power semiconductors and PSUs. Created… Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials Outflow -4.7% 30D TheBuildout · Photoresists & Lithography Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/photoresists-lithography-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management Outflow -4.8% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Thermal Management (Air & Liquid) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-thermal-management), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Web Cloud Outflow -4.8% 30D Web/Cloud Infrastructure - Edge computing, CDN, databases, data platforms, observability Quantum Computing Outflow -5.0% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors Outflow -5.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Power Semiconductors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-power-semiconductors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission Outflow -5.1% 30D TheBuildout · Grid Infrastructure & Transmission — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/grid-infrastructure-transmission), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO Outflow -5.2% 30D TheBuildout · Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/co-packaged-optics-cpo), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials Outflow -5.3% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Bonding & Interconnect Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged… Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment Outflow -5.5% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Test & Burn-In Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-test-burn-in-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering Outflow -5.7% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Fab Construction & Engineering — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist.… Thebuildout Deposition Equipment Outflow -5.8% 30D TheBuildout · Deposition Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/deposition-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier… AI Power Outflow -6.0% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… War Sensitivity Outflow -6.1% 30D War-sensitivity watchlist — stocks ranked by their reaction to ceasefire fake-outs (TACO trades). Tier 1 fast movers: COPX/JETS/UAE (5-9% pops). Tier 2 hidden oil-sensitive: W/RH/ATZ/AS (heavy-goods shipping costs).… Robotics Outflow -6.2% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation Outflow -6.2% 30D TheBuildout · Industrial Robotics & Automation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/industrial-robotics-automation), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Humanoid Robotics Outflow -6.3% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power Outflow -6.3% 30D TheBuildout · Fuel Cells & Alternative DC Power — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · UPS & Energy Storage for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ups-energy-storage-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · Natural Gas Turbines & DC Power Generation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/natural-gas-turbines-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · Transformers & Grid Interconnect Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/transformers-grid-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing Outflow -6.8% 30D TheBuildout · EMS / Contract Electronics Manufacturing — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Retail Outflow -6.8% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) Travel Leisure Outflow -6.9% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. Consumer Outflow -7.0% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables Outflow -7.4% 30D TheBuildout · CMP Slurries & Consumables — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/cmp-slurries-consumables), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Optical Supply Chain Outflow -7.5% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… Livestock Disease Outflow -7.6% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways Outflow -7.8% 30D TheBuildout · Power Distribution (PDUs, Busways, Switchgear) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-distribution-pdus-busways), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -8.1% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors Outflow -8.2% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor IP Licensors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-ip-licensors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves Outflow -9.0% 30D TheBuildout · Power Supplies (PSU) & Power Shelves — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-supplies-psu-power-shelves), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… China Tech Outflow -9.2% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Defense Contractors Outflow -9.7% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Thebuildout Etch Equipment Outflow -9.7% 30D TheBuildout · Etch Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/etch-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible… Grid Buildout Outflow -10.3% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Cultural Thesis Outflow -11.0% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Drone Defense Outflow -13.8% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Airlines Outflow -17.4% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… 7. Key Signals
Recorded signals · 51
8. Paper Trade Report Card
yolo $112,317 +12.3% 12 open · updated 2026-09-04
claude trader $110,581 +10.6% 20 open · updated 2026-09-04
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
momentum trader $99,693 -0.3% 3 open · updated 2026-09-04
bench signals $58,499 n/a 58 open · updated 2026-09-04
9. Active Perspectives
AI power: generation and grid equipment active high latest 2026-09-06
AI power: rack and chip conversion active high latest 2026-09-06
AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings active high latest 2026-09-06
AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp active high latest 2026-09-06
Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline active high latest 2026-09-06
Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Today's Actions · 40 LULU $100.61 · SNPS $393.84 · SYK $303.13
exit · 3
LULU $100.61 breaking down — -16.7% this week, 55.5% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 51.2% over the past year and 34.1% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
SNPS $393.84 breaking down — -11.0% this week, 36.0% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 34.6% over the past year and 11.9% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
SYK $303.13 breaking down — -8.3% this week, 23.6% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 23.1% over the past year and 10.4% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
entry · 37
NVDA breaking out 2.6% off its 52-week high after a +5.9% week
DELL breaking out 2.0% off its 52-week high after a +14.9% week — a +33% three-month run, not a one-week pop
VLO breaking out 1.2% off its 52-week high after a +5.2% week — a +45% three-month run, not a one-week pop
META $600–630 coming into play — 22.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+6.7% this week) · in its $600–630 buy zone trend-hold
TMUS coming into play — 29.3% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+0.1% this week)
SPGI coming into play — 19.7% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+0.1% this week)
ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $8.45 trend-hold
MSFT $442 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $442 trend-hold
MU $989.96 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $989.96
SKHY $151.05 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $151.05 trend-hold
IREN $45.66 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $45.66 · bottom pop — new this week
COHR $299.22 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $299.22 · tape broken
CRDO $255.50 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $255.50 · tape broken trend-hold
MKSI watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
TLT $82.60 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $82.60 · tape broken trend-hold
UUP watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AAPL no setup today — still in trend, +0.1% this week, 7.1% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — still in trend, -3.0% this week, 10.0% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — still in trend, +1.0% this week, 3.7% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, +5.5% this week, 44.3% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — still in trend, +6.6% this week, 65.5% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — drifting down, -2.4% this week, 17.2% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, +2.5% this week, 65.4% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — still in trend, +1.2% this week, 5.9% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — under pressure, +0.8% this week, 53.3% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under pressure, -2.4% this week, 72.2% off its 52-week high
NET no setup today — drifting down, -7.0% this week, 16.0% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NTR no setup today — still in trend, +8.1% this week, 6.9% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — drifting down, +5.2% this week, 42.9% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under pressure, -9.3% this week, 65.0% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — under pressure, -2.4% this week, 64.5% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, -1.7% this week, 69.0% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under pressure, -2.5% this week, 73.9% off its 52-week high
SHOP no setup today — still in trend, -5.1% this week, 20.4% off its 52-week high
TSLA no setup today — under pressure, +1.5% this week, 29.0% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under pressure, -7.5% this week, 77.1% off its 52-week high
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
1 machine source could not be read when this issue was built — its record shows a partially degraded day.
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 152, pullback: 419, uptrend: 292, downtrend: 123.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-09-04 vs 2026-09-03; 24 confirmed state-to-state flips, 0 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $AMGN breakout -> uptrend; $ARKW basing -> pullback; $AVAL uptrend -> basing; $BANB.SW basing -> uptrend; $BDX breakout -> uptrend; $BMY breakout -> uptrend.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.34% as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
4.77% as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.41% as of 2026-09-04 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.63% as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.42% as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
332.8 as of 2026-07-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.65% as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
118.7 as of 2026-08-28 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
14.32 as of 2026-09-03 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.56 as of 2026-08-28 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Crypto (RS +23.1, 30% strong-up, today -2.4%), Hard Assets (RS +18.5, 7% strong-up, today -1.7%), Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory (RS +13.8, 60% strong-up, today +7.0%) — OUT OF Airlines (RS -17.5), Drone Defense (RS -13.8), Cultural Thesis (RS -11.0). Benchmark SPY +0.1% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering (accel +3.3, 60% up), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +3.2, 50% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Neoclouds (accel +11.1, 40% up, led by IREN/HUT/CBRS), Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (accel +5.9, 33% up, led by TTMI/APH/SANM), Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect (accel +5.0, 0% up, led by VRT/NVT/SMTOY), Thebuildout Etch Equipment (accel +4.7, 0% up, led by KLAC/AEIS/ENTG), Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure (accel +4.5, 31% up, led by DELL/MOD/VRT). TURNING LAGGARDS (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): Thebuildout Etch Equipment (30d -9.7, 7d +2.3, divergence +12.0), Grid Buildout (30d -10.3, 7d +1.7, divergence +12.0), Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves (30d -9.1, 7d +1.9, divergence +11.0), Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways (30d -7.8, 7d +2.4, divergence +10.2), Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect (30d -6.7, 7d +3.4, divergence +10.0), Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (30d -6.8, 7d +2.6, divergence +9.4), WFE Test Metrology (30d -8.1, 7d +0.9, divergence +9.1), Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (30d -3.9, 7d +4.8, divergence +8.8), AI Power (30d -6.0, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.5), Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power (30d -6.6, 7d +1.9, divergence +8.5), Optical Supply Chain (30d -7.5, 7d +0.9, divergence +8.4), Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers (30d -6.6, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.2), Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power (30d -6.4, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.0), Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering (30d -5.7, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect (30d -4.1, 7d +3.3, divergence +7.4), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (30d -5.5, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.3), Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure (30d -3.6, 7d +3.6, divergence +7.2), Thebuildout Deposition Equipment (30d -5.8, 7d +1.3, divergence +7.2), Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling (30d -4.1, 7d +2.8, divergence +7.0), Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation (30d -6.3, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management (30d -4.8, 7d +2.0, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO (30d -5.3, 7d +0.9, divergence +6.1), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors (30d -5.1, 7d +0.9, divergence +6.0), Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries (30d -4.0, 7d +2.0, divergence +6.0), Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission (30d -5.2, 7d +0.7, divergence +5.8), Electricity (30d -4.7, 7d +1.0, divergence +5.7), Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials (30d -5.3, 7d +0.3, divergence +5.6), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules (30d -4.1, 7d +1.1, divergence +5.2), AI Infrastructure (30d -3.4, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.2), Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware (30d -3.3, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.2), Semis (30d -2.7, 7d +2.4, divergence +5.1), Thebuildout Autonomous Vehicles Self Driving (30d -3.5, 7d +1.6, divergence +5.0), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (30d -3.6, 7d +1.4, divergence +5.0), Thebuildout Humanoid Robots Embodied AI (30d -3.3, 7d +1.6, divergence +4.9), Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials (30d -4.7, 7d +0.0, divergence +4.8), Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment (30d -3.8, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.6), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging (30d -3.8, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.6), Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem (30d -3.8, 7d +0.0, divergence +3.8), Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas (30d -2.8, 7d +0.9, divergence +3.7), Thebuildout Nuclear Energy Data Centers (30d -2.9, 7d +0.6, divergence +3.5). Fading leaders: Hard Assets (accel -4.3, today -1.7%), Government Compute (accel -4.1, today -1.2%), Cloud SAAS (accel -5.2, today -3.0%), Copper (accel -6.0, today -0.4%), Cloud ETFS (accel -5.1, today -2.3%), Trace Glp1 Manufacturing (accel -3.0, today -1.0%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering (accel +3.3, 60% up); Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +3.2, 50% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): thebuildout-etch-equipment (30d -9.7, 7d +2.3, divergence +12.0); grid-buildout (30d -10.3, 7d +1.7, divergence +12.0); thebuildout-power-supplies-psu-power-shelves (30d -9.1, 7d +1.9, divergence +11.0); thebuildout-power-distribution-pdus-busways (30d -7.8, 7d +2.4, divergence +10.2); thebuildout-transformers-grid-interconnect (30d -6.7, 7d +3.4, divergence +10.0); thebuildout-ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing (30d -6.8, 7d +2.6, divergence +9.4); wfe-test-metrology (30d -8.1, 7d +0.9, divergence +9.1); thebuildout-high-speed-pcbs-server-networking (30d -3.9, 7d +4.8, divergence +8.8); ai-power (30d -6.0, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.5); thebuildout-natural-gas-turbines-dc-power (30d -6.6, 7d +1.9, divergence +8.5); optical-supply-chain (30d -7.5, 7d +0.9, divergence +8.4); thebuildout-ups-energy-storage-data-centers (30d -6.6, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.2); thebuildout-fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power (30d -6.4, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.0); thebuildout-semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering (30d -5.7, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-connector-high-speed-interconnect (30d -4.1, 7d +3.3, divergence +7.4); thebuildout-semiconductor-test-burn-in-equipment (30d -5.5, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.3); thebuildout-racks-chassis-mechanical-infrastructure (30d -3.6, 7d +3.6, divergence +7.2); thebuildout-deposition-equipment (30d -5.8, 7d +1.3, divergence +7.2); thebuildout-data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling (30d -4.1, 7d +2.8, divergence +7.0); thebuildout-industrial-robotics-automation (30d -6.3, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-data-center-thermal-management (30d -4.8, 7d +2.0, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-co-packaged-optics-cpo (30d -5.3, 7d +0.9, divergence +6.1); thebuildout-data-center-power-semiconductors (30d -5.1, 7d +0.9, divergence +6.0); thebuildout-trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries (30d -4.0, 7d +2.0, divergence +6.0); thebuildout-grid-infrastructure-transmission (30d -5.2, 7d +0.7, divergence +5.8); electricity (30d -4.7, 7d +1.0, divergence +5.7); thebuildout-semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials (30d -5.3, 7d +0.3, divergence +5.6); thebuildout-optical-transceivers-modules (30d -4.1, 7d +1.1, divergence +5.2); ai-infrastructure (30d -3.4, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.2); thebuildout-ai-sensors-perception-hardware (30d -3.3, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.2); semis (30d -2.7, 7d +2.4, divergence +5.1); thebuildout-autonomous-vehicles-self-driving (30d -3.5, 7d +1.6, divergence +5.0); thebuildout-data-center-networking-silicon (30d -3.6, 7d +1.4, divergence +5.0); thebuildout-humanoid-robots-embodied-ai (30d -3.3, 7d +1.6, divergence +4.9); thebuildout-photoresists-lithography-materials (30d -4.7, 7d +0.0, divergence +4.8); thebuildout-advanced-packaging-equipment (30d -3.8, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.6); thebuildout-glass-core-panel-level-packaging (30d -3.8, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.6); thebuildout-package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem (30d -3.8, 7d +0.0, divergence +3.8); thebuildout-renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas (30d -2.8, 7d +0.9, divergence +3.7); thebuildout-nuclear-energy-data-centers (30d -2.9, 7d +0.6, divergence +3.5).
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY -0.4%, RSP -0.5%. 124 lanes with 3+ settled names; 26 closed at least 90% up, 8 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory | +7.0% | 5/5 | leading (RS +13.8) |
| Memory | +6.3% | 11/11 | leading (RS +10.9) |
| Thebuildout Lithography Equipment | +6.2% | 5/6 | neutral (RS -3.4) |
| Thebuildout Dram Memory | +6.1% | 4/4 | leading (RS +4.3) |
| Nearline Storage | +5.9% | 4/6 of 7 | neutral (RS -1.7) |
| Neoclouds | +5.7% | 8/10 | early-turn (RS -1.3) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment | +5.5% | 4/4 | emerging (RS -5.5) |
| Thebuildout Deposition Equipment | +5.1% | 4/4 | neutral (RS -5.8) |
| … 108 more | |||
| Mag7 | -1.2% | 2/8 | leading (RS +2.6) |
| Hard Assets | -1.4% | 2/12 of 14 | fading (RS +18.5) |
| Web Cloud | -2.0% | 1/9 | lagging (RS -4.8) |
| Adtech | -2.0% | 2/10 | leading (RS +8.6) |
| Cloud ETFS | -2.2% | 0/4 | fading (RS +4.3) |
| Crypto | -2.4% | 2/11 of 20 | leading (RS +23.1) |
| Cloud SAAS | -3.0% | 1/16 | fading (RS +5.1) |
| Lazarus | -3.4% | 0/10 | lagging (RS -3.8) |
What moved together
- Crypto -2.4% median, 2 of 11 up; the 30-day rank reads leading — the month is strong, the day is not.
- Adtech -2.0% median, 2 of 10 up; the 30-day rank reads leading — the month is strong, the day is not.
- Mag7 -1.2% median, 2 of 8 up; the 30-day rank reads leading — the month is strong, the day is not.
- Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory +7.0% median, 5 of 5 up, 7.4 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Memory +6.3% median, 11 of 11 up, 6.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Etch Equipment +5.1% median, 6 of 6 up, 5.5 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- WFE Test Metrology +4.9% median, 14 of 14 up, 5.3 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment +4.3% median, 7 of 7 up, 4.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging +4.3% median, 9 of 9 up, 4.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- CPU Shortage Supply Chain +3.9% median, 8 of 8 up, 4.3 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $LULU -17.4% on 8.7× volume — attribution: watched; Cultural Thesis -0.9% (1/8), Lazarus -3.4% (0/10), Consumer -0.7% (4/15), Retail -0.5% (8/20); 1 more lane
- $PATH -16.6% — attribution: watched; Robotics +1.3% (34/49), AI lane +0.0% (34/67)
- $AEHR +13.1% — attribution: watched; Optical Supply Chain +3.7% (34/36)
- $ASAN -12.7% on 3.7× volume — attribution: blindside; Tech Insider Buys -0.8% (18/42)
- $SNDK +11.9% — attribution: watched; Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory +7.0% (5/5), Memory +6.3% (11/11), Thebuildout AI Storage Data Pipeline +1.4% (14/19), Focus -0.5% (11/25); 1 more lane
- $EOSE +10.9% — attribution: blindside; Energy +1.3% (8/12), AI lane +0.0% (34/67)
- $CBRS +10.3% — attribution: blindside; Neoclouds +5.7% (8/10), Thebuildout AI Data Center Operators Neoclouds +2.8% (13/18), Thebuildout Custom AI Silicon Hyperscaler Asics +2.9% (19/24), AI Infrastructure +1.7% (41/54)
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 14.53 (CALM) · 1d +1.5%. 😴 VIX CALM — 14.53 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.7% · LQD -0.8% · IEF -0.7% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — 100% (Polymarket, as of 09-05; wk +14pt)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — 51% (Polymarket, as of 09-05; wk +0pt)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — 49% (Kalshi, as of 09-05; wk +0pt)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 2% (Polymarket, as of 09-05; wk -8pt)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — 2% (Kalshi, as of 09-05; wk -4pt)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 80% (Polymarket, as of 09-05; wk +4pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 7% (Polymarket, as of 09-05; wk -1pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 6% (Kalshi, as of 09-05; wk -2pt)
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
- 2026-09-07 — pre-market: KEN
- 2026-09-08 — after close: CASY, BRZE
- 2026-09-09 — after close: AVAV, NAVN, LAES
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-09-06 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $BE | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $MKSI | watch | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SLV | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $AGIO | watch | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $DHR | watch (in zone) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $EWY | pass | the one-factor market: 16 of the last 45 sessions moved more than 4% — the template… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $KRE | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $BNO | watch | not a trade — the oil leg of the monitor. BNO ~$57 is Brent ~$100 at the current… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $HYG | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $PSX | pass | same as VLO — RSI 80 at the high; nothing here to chase | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $SPY | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $TLT | watch (in zone) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $VLO | pass | the diesel-crack trade is made — RSI 74.8, 0.96% off its high, +35.46% in three… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | pending |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SIL | watch (in zone) | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SIMO | watch | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $UUP | watch | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | +2.0% |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 | +7.3% |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | +11.6% |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 | +13.8% |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 | +12.0% |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | -9.4% |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +7.2% |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | -0.1% |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +9.5% |
| $MU | watch (in zone) | Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +12.8% |
| $NVDA | watch (in zone) | the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +6.6% |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +3.6% |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | +6.0% |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +11.1% |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | +8.0% |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +2.2% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +19.9% |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +6.7% |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | -2.4% |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | +11.2% |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | -5.1% |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | -9.9% |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (invalidation?) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -12.6% |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | +16.0% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -5.3% |
Resolved this week: $AMAT buy (2026-09-06); $COHR buy (2026-09-06); $GLW buy (2026-09-06); $IREN watch (2026-09-06); $LRCX buy (2026-09-06); $MRVL buy (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $SOXX buy (2026-09-06); $TSM buy (2026-09-06); $VRT buy (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06); $WDC watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $GEV watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $MU watch (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $NBIS buy (2026-09-06); $MU buy (2026-09-06); $SNDK watch (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06).
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
web— Eric Nuttall - 60 days to the midterms with diesel at a record $XLE $XOP $VLO $PSX $MPC $USO $BNO · link- Nuttall frames the energy tape as a political clock: 60 days to the US midterms with $240/bbl diesel, $4.10/gallon gasoline and the 10-year at 4.75%, arguing pressure on the President to say or do something to push oil down only builds from here. Worth keeping because it landed the same session US national diesel set…
𝕏Paradis — TrendForce: memory chips to hit 68% of cloud-provider capex in 2027 $MU $SNDK · link- TrendForce now models DRAM and NAND rising from under half of hyperscaler spending in 2026 to more than two-thirds in 2027 — the poster notes even his own earlier estimate (~50%) undershot it. A concrete, sourced number for how fast memory is eating the AI-infrastructure budget.
𝕏Winston — the US and China drew almost the same fossil-fuel share of power in 2025 · link- IEA-sourced chart: the US and China landed at nearly the same fossil-fuel share of generation in 2025 (57% vs 58%) but via opposite fuels (US gas, China coal) - and the forecast has their fossil shares crossing by 2030. Useful grounding for how much gas-fired capacity the US grid still needs to add to keep up with AI…
𝕏Serenity — Broadcom's CEO: laser demand "far surpassing supply" $AVGO · link- Broadcom's own earnings-call commentary tonight: laser supply can't keep up with demand even as the company triples capacity, and FY28 revenue guidance (~$230B) came in well above the Street's ~$180B model. Direct read on how tight the optical-buildout capacity picture actually is, from the company selling into it.
𝕏IPO Newsroom — Nscale now touts $103B in contracted revenue ahead of its IPO · link- Per The Information (relayed here): Nscale's contracted-revenue backlog roughly doubled, from $51B to $103B, on the back of a single $45B Anthropic compute deal. A concrete marker of how much AI-lab demand is flowing into neocloud capacity ahead of the IPO wave.
𝕏Serenity — Nvidia told JPMorgan its demand could run 100%+ y/y unconstrained $NVDA · link- Nvidia's own investor-relations framing, relayed here: guidance of ~70% y/y growth (to ~$682B FY28) is a supply ceiling, not a demand ceiling — unconstrained demand implies over $800B. Useful number to have on hand for how much slack is left in the compute build-out even after two years of triple-digit growth.
𝕏Eric Nuttall — global oil inventories at all-time lows despite record SPR/floating-storage draws · link- Eric Nuttall's numbers on the physical oil market underneath tonight's energy strength: Middle East production down 7.4 million barrels/day versus February, Strait exports down at least 4 million barrels/day, and global inventories at record lows even after absorbing 400M+ barrels of SPR and floating-storage releases.
web— Palo Alto Networks Beats Quarterly Estimates on AI Demand $PANW · link- The resolution to the cybersecurity cluster question. The group broke out together last week then sold off together today — eleven of eleven red, the worst board on the tape — into this print. Palo Alto beat on AI-driven demand for detection and response, with the stock nearly doubled on the year. Worth reading for wh…
web— Bond Slide Spreads to Emerging Markets on Fed Rate Hike Bets $HYG · link- The contagion leg of the same story and the reason it is worth two reads rather than one: the selloff stopped being a US duration event and became a global risk-appetite event. Useful as a check on whether this is positioning or something worse — if EM debt keeps bleeding while US high yield stays orderly (it fell onl…
web— US 30-Year Bond Enters September on Worst Stretch Since 2006 $TLT · link- The single best framing of what drove today's tape. Yields on the longest Treasuries have not been this high for this long since 2006, and Bloomberg names the three things keeping them there: the deficit, a fresh wave of corporate issuance, and a September Fed meeting the market now prices at 59% for a hike. Read this…
Filings
- NEW: $NVDA 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $OUST 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $RGTI 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-03)
- NEW: $ILMN 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $CRM 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-04)
- NEW: $CRM 8-K filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-04 (period 2026-09-02)
- …and 157 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $NVDA 4 (2026-09-04); $OUST 4 (2026-09-04); $RGTI 4 (2026-09-04); $ILMN 4 (2026-09-04); $CRM 4 (2026-09-04); $CRM 8-K (2026-09-04); $DDOG 4 (2026-09-04); $DDOG 4 (2026-09-04); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-09-04. Row dates: 2026-09-05: 11, 2026-09-04: 2637, 2026-09-03: 8.
- Summary coverage: 2637/2656 rows at 2026-09-04; 1163 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 570 up, 540 down, 14 flat across 1124 names; median 1D change +0.1%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 27 up, 29 down, 0 flat; median 1D change -0.0% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $AEHR | +13.1% | +6.8% | -12.7% | 45.6 | weak-down | $86.26 | monster-discoveries |
| $SNDK | +11.9% | +17.1% | +28.8% | 61.2 | strong-up | $1740.00 | focus |
| $EOSE | +10.9% | +18.6% | +1.6% | 52.1 | strong-down | $3.88 | ai-scan |
| $CBRS | +10.3% | +17.2% | -2.0% | 53.0 | neutral | $210.05 | ai-infrastructure |
| $ALAB | +9.8% | +7.2% | -2.5% | 52.2 | weak-down | $310.40 | cpu-shortage-supply-chain |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $LULU | -17.4% | -16.7% | -18.5% | 31.8 | Oversold | $100.61 | bargain-bin |
| $PATH | -16.6% | -16.2% | +9.9% | 45.3 | strong-up | $15.19 | ai-scan |
| $ASAN | -12.7% | -13.7% | -0.8% | 45.2 | weak-up | $8.81 | holdings-stocks |
| $ADBE | -6.7% | -8.6% | +2.8% | 48.9 | weak-up | $266.51 | ai-scan |
| $ETSY | -6.7% | -8.4% | -10.9% | 39.6 | weak-down | $76.51 | monster-discoveries |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (26): $MVLL +14.0%, $RAM +12.9%, $TSLL -11.8%, $SOXS -10.2%, $SOXL +9.9%, $CONL -8.5%, $BITX -4.8%, $DUST +4.4%, … — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM entry-zone — support shelf <$166.15 | 2026-08-28 | $ARM | APPROACHING — $252.09 is 51.7% above under $166.15; waiting for the pullback | <$166.15 |
| AVGO entry-zone — support shelf <$352.12 / 200-day test | 2026-08-28 | $AVGO | APPROACHING — $357.90 is 1.6% above under $352.12; waiting for the pullback | <$352.12 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $144.65 is 47.6% below the $276 target, trend strong-down | $276.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $23.76 is 47.2% below the $45 target, trend strong-up | $45.00 |
| UMAC stop-loss — $18.50 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | HOLDING — $23.76 is 28.4% above the $18.50 stop | $18.50 |
| GDX profit-target — $115.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | APPROACHING — $99.26 is 13.7% below the $115 target, trend up | $115.00 |
| GDX stop-loss — $85.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | HOLDING — $99.26 is 16.8% above the $85 stop | $85.00 |
| NVTS entry-zone — $8-$10 | 2026-07-31 | $NVTS | APPROACHING — $11.80 is 18.0% above $8–$10; waiting for the pullback | $8-$10 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 749;
convergentCount11;divergentCount13.