1. The Read
The index did nothing and the tape did a lot. The S&P 500 closed down 0.5% with breadth worse than the print (the equal-weight index fell 1.0%), while the high-beta complex that ripped on Tuesday sold as one: neoclouds 10-for-10 red at a −3.6% median, space −3.9%, drone defense −3.0%, quantum −2.9%, EV −2.8%. The other side of the book was memory and cloud: NAND flash +2.8% and DRAM +2.8% at the lane level, semis +1.0%, and web cloud +4.7% on Cloudflare's +10.5% day. The regime count still reads 256 confirmed uptrends against 119 downtrends, and Apple flipped from basing to uptrend in tonight's batch, but the day belonged to the sellers of last week's winners. The volatility gate moved from CALM to NORMAL with the VIX at 16.46, up 4.7%, which is a posture change and not a spike.
Macro is the story the tape is trading around. The 10-year sits at 4.80% and the crowd prices a Fed hike next Wednesday at 54%, down five points on the week with a hold at 45%, with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast running September CPI at 0.40% month over month and 3.44% on the year. That makes Thursday's CPI and Friday's PPI the two prints that decide the meeting. Oil is the reason: U.S. forces struck IRGC-linked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and crude traded toward $100 a barrel, with the oil fund up 2.7% on the day and 19.1% over thirty days. The EIA's September outlook, released today, says the flows recover slowly and the price comes down: Brent around $90 for the second half and $74 in 2027, with Middle East output below pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of next year. That is the forecaster arguing against the tape, and it is the reason the energy campaign stays in monitoring rather than promotion.
Under the surface the prints did the moving. Braze fell 21.7% on 3.7× volume after a beat and a raised guide because remaining-performance-obligation growth slowed to 24%; Casey's fell 14.2% on 7.3× volume after beating by $0.59 and raising its year, a reaction the pull does not explain. Karman dropped 11.3% on a short-seller's cash-flow questions and a new CFO. AeroVironment slipped 5.4% into tonight's report. On the board itself nothing rings four bells: Coherent, Corning, IREN, Marvell and Micron sit at three, and two entry targets were retired today on their own invalidation clauses, Alphabet below its 200-day and Martin Marietta through the floor of its May zone. Sandisk closed strictly above its $1,740 reference, but on extension rather than a flag, so it is a price leg and not an entry. Constellation's entry watch invalidated below its 200-day. One paper book took its stop: the signal ledger sold McDonald's at −15.3%.
Watch Thursday: CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern decides whether the 54% hike odds hold, Oracle and Adobe report after the close, and AeroVironment reports tonight after repeated revenue misses.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
289 advancing 839 declining 63.9% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (20) — CASY RSI 31.4 → 20, SFD RSI 33.4 → 22.3, PINS RSI 30.6 → 23.2, BN RSI 30.5 → 27.3, CALM RSI 30.1 → 27.3, DY RSI 30 → 27.4, LHX RSI 31.2 → 27.7, DFEN RSI 30.9 → 27.8, ITA RSI 31.4 → 27.9, MMME RSI 32.6 → 27.9, PPA RSI 31.3 → 27.9, MTD RSI 34.5 → 28.5, TDY RSI 32.1 → 28.6, AS RSI 32.2 → 29.2, BKNG RSI 32.8 → 29.2, 300124.SZ RSI 32.8 → 29.6, +4 more.
New overbought (11) — SSL RSI 66.9 → 74.8, BNO RSI 69.8 → 72.9, USO RSI 69.8 → 72.9, DBO RSI 69.1 → 72.5, CLMT RSI 68.7 → 71.8, SIG RSI 42.6 → 70.5, META RSI 60.9 → 70.4, SLDE RSI 68.8 → 70.4, BOAT RSI 69.3 → 70.2, FRO RSI 68.6 → 70.2, HAFN RSI 67.3 → 70.
Golden crossings (3) — ARKF -0.16% → 0.12%, NOW -0.59% → 0.07%, PLTR -0.23% → 0.46%.
Death crossings (7) — 2449.TW 0.2% → -0.31%, 6146.T 0.15% → -0.7%, DY 0.56% → -0.49%, MOD 0.5% → -0.27%, MTZ 0.49% → -0.82%, POET 0.12% → -0.61%, XEL 0.04% → -0.08%.
New monsters (15) — AEHR 43.9% → 50.6%, 1888.HK 38.4% → 44.2%, SSL 29.8% → 41.8%, NET 27.6% → 40.7%, COHU 31.3% → 39.4%, DOCN 29.9% → 35.4%, EQNR 29.4% → 34.4%, NSP 32.9% → 34.2%, 3105.TWO 27.9% → 33.8%, VG 29% → 33.5%, APA 29.4% → 32.8%, 2049.TW 25.3% → 32.2%, MATX 29.8% → 31.4%, WCP.TO 27.7% → 30.7%, DAC 29.1% → 30.1%.
Newly near a 52-week high (20) — SSL -7.45% → -1.22% from high, BNO -5.06% → -2.45% from high, USO -5.22% → -2.67% from high, CF -5.37% → -2.71% from high, CHYM -6.18% → -2.81% from high, E -5.28% → -3.34% from high, ZCSH -5.88% → -3.63% from high, NTRA -5.55% → -3.75% from high, CNH -5.95% → -3.87% from high, BWLP -6.16% → -3.96% from high, HAFN -6.08% → -3.98% from high, EOG -5.41% → -4.33% from high, CMPS -8.83% → -4.41% from high, PARR -5.69% → -4.48% from high, COPX -5.61% → -4.72% from high, CON -5.63% → -4.79% from high, +4 more.
Newly in an entry zone (2) — ITA $219.45 · $210-$220, LMT $524.46 · $490-$530.
The desk's takes cover 19 of 25 names; the rest show the mechanical tape state. 1 authored take matched no row (IONQ / RGTI / QBTS / QUBT / ARQQ / LAES) — kept in the chapter text above.
4. Sector Scorecard
NAND Flash Memory — +2.8% median, 4 of 5 up, 30-day rank leading with the strongest relative strength on the tape; memory is still the trade. DRAM Memory — +2.8% median, 3 of 4 up, leading; Micron +2.8%. Power Distribution / Transformers / Fuel Cells — −2.1% median each, 0 up across 29 names; the AI-power build-out lanes gave back with the neoclouds they serve.
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
The desk's assessments cover 10 of 124 lanes. 3 authored assessments matched no lane (nand flash memory, dram memory, power distribution / transformers / fuel cells) — kept in the chapter text above.
5. The Wild & Whacky
- Casey's beat by $0.59 a share, raised its year, and fell 14.2% on seven times normal volume. The pull has the beat and not the reason.
- Braze printed record revenue and a raised guide and lost a fifth of its value because bookings growth slowed to 24%. The market is grading the second derivative.
- The crowd's odds of a Fed HIKE next week are 54%, and the hold is 45%. The hike lost five points on the week while oil gained six.
- Sandisk is up 42.5% in thirty days and still cannot pass its own entry test, because the test asks for a flag.
6. What I'd Tell a Friend
The index is flat and the money is rotating out of last week's winners into memory and cloud. Do not chase the quantum, space or neocloud names down; the lane sold as one and the 30-day ranks still read strong, so the turn, if it comes, shows up as a green day on light volume, not a red one on heavy. Alphabet is below its 200-day and the entry level is gone; Lockheed and ITA are inside their zones with the trend still down, which is a watch and not a buy. Memory is the trade that keeps working, and the entry discipline is the same as always: wait for the flag, not the pop. The one thing to watch is Thursday's CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, because a hot print turns the 54% hike odds into a hike and everything above gets repriced.
7. The Front Page
Monster Watch · 161 of 1149 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 124 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… AI Infrastructure Neutral -2.6% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect Neutral -2.7% 30D TheBuildout · Connector & High-Speed Interconnect Suppliers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/connector-high-speed-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure Neutral -2.7% 30D TheBuildout · Racks, Chassis & Mechanical Infrastructure — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/racks-chassis-mechanical-infrastructure), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Cloud ETFS Neutral -2.7% 30D Cloud ETFs - contrarian SaaS thesis. AI accelerates SaaS, survivors will consolidate. Thebuildout Nuclear Energy Data Centers Neutral -2.9% 30D TheBuildout · Nuclear Energy for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/nuclear-energy-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing Neutral -2.9% 30D TheBuildout · EMS / Contract Electronics Manufacturing — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging Neutral -2.9% 30D TheBuildout · Glass Core & Panel-Level Packaging — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/glass-core-panel-level-packaging), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Eda Software Neutral -2.9% 30D TheBuildout · EDA Software — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/eda-software), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 6… Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking Neutral -3.0% 30D TheBuildout · High-Speed PCBs (Server/Networking Grade) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/high-speed-pcbs-server-networking), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission Outflow -3.4% 30D TheBuildout · Grid Infrastructure & Transmission — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/grid-infrastructure-transmission), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Industrial Robotics & Automation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/industrial-robotics-automation), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · UPS & Energy Storage for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ups-energy-storage-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Natural Gas Turbines & DC Power Generation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/natural-gas-turbines-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -3.8% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering Outflow -3.8% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Fab Construction & Engineering — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist.… Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect Outflow -3.9% 30D TheBuildout · Transformers & Grid Interconnect Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/transformers-grid-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… EV Clean Energy Outflow -4.0% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power Outflow -4.0% 30D TheBuildout · Fuel Cells & Alternative DC Power — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules Outflow -4.1% 30D TheBuildout · Optical Transceivers & Modules — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/optical-transceivers-modules), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling Outflow -4.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Fiber & High-Speed Cabling — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases Outflow -4.2% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty & Electronic Gases — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-electronic-gases), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals Outflow -4.2% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty Gases & Process Chemicals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-gases-process-chemicals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Humanoid Robotics Outflow -4.2% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Chemicals Outflow -4.3% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. AI Power Outflow -4.4% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Defensive Outflow -4.4% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem Outflow -4.4% 30D TheBuildout · Package Substrate & Interposer Ecosystem — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon Outflow -4.5% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Networking Silicon — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-networking-silicon), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management Outflow -4.5% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Thermal Management (Air & Liquid) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-thermal-management), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Humanoid Robots Embodied AI Outflow -4.7% 30D TheBuildout · Humanoid Robots & Embodied AI — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/humanoid-robots-embodied-ai), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout Lithography Equipment Outflow -4.8% 30D TheBuildout · Lithography Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithography-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Government Compute Outflow -4.8% 30D Federal IT and mission-software contractors spanning data platforms, consulting, cybersecurity, and defense intelligence. Alt Managers Outflow -4.9% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Thebuildout Rare Earth Miners Processors Outflow -5.0% 30D TheBuildout · Rare Earth Miners & Processors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/rare-earth-miners-processors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials Outflow -5.0% 30D TheBuildout · Photoresists & Lithography Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/photoresists-lithography-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment Outflow -5.1% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Electricity Outflow -5.1% 30D The electricity layer of the AI buildout, consolidated: generation, grid and transmission, transformers, distribution and busways, turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, UPS and storage, power semiconductors and PSUs. Created… Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways Outflow -5.2% 30D TheBuildout · Power Distribution (PDUs, Busways, Switchgear) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-distribution-pdus-busways), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Optical Supply Chain Outflow -5.3% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… War Sensitivity Outflow -5.6% 30D War-sensitivity watchlist — stocks ranked by their reaction to ceasefire fake-outs (TACO trades). Tier 1 fast movers: COPX/JETS/UAE (5-9% pops). Tier 2 hidden oil-sensitive: W/RH/ATZ/AS (heavy-goods shipping costs).… Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials Outflow -5.8% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Bonding & Interconnect Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged… Cybersec Outflow -6.1% 30D Cybersecurity & Networking - firewall/SASE (FTNT, PANW — PANW absorbed CYBR via 2025 acquisition), endpoint (CRWD, S), zero-trust (ZS, OKTA), edge/CDN (NET), embedded/automotive QNX + cybersec (BB BlackBerry — surfaced… Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware Outflow -6.3% 30D TheBuildout · AI Sensors & Perception Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-sensors-perception-hardware), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Peptide Economy Outflow -6.4% 30D Peptide / GLP-1 economy — principals + next-gen pipeline + consumer/distribution layer. Surfaced 2026-05-05 as a coverage gap: no focused lens existed despite GLP-1s being the largest pharma run of the past 18 months.… Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · CMP Slurries & Consumables — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/cmp-slurries-consumables), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -6.7% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves Outflow -6.7% 30D TheBuildout · Power Supplies (PSU) & Power Shelves — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-supplies-psu-power-shelves), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Etch Equipment Outflow -6.7% 30D TheBuildout · Etch Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/etch-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible… Thebuildout Autonomous Vehicles Self Driving Outflow -6.7% 30D TheBuildout · Autonomous Vehicles & Self-Driving — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/autonomous-vehicles-self-driving), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Livestock Disease Outflow -6.8% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Grid Buildout Outflow -6.8% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Lazarus Outflow -7.1% 30D Fallen-quality WATCH list (NOT buys): former leaders down 40-80% held in quarantine until they prove a trend reversal — the 'Lazarus signal' (pop -> flag -> breakout / life pouring in). Entry only on confirmation, never… Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries Outflow -7.5% 30D TheBuildout · Trailing-Edge Logic & Specialty Foundries — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Space Outflow -7.5% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Robotics Outflow -7.5% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Thebuildout Deposition Equipment Outflow -7.6% 30D TheBuildout · Deposition Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/deposition-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier… Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors Outflow -8.1% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor IP Licensors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-ip-licensors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors Outflow -8.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Power Semiconductors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-power-semiconductors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Retail Outflow -8.4% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) Quantum Computing Outflow -8.8% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Consumer Outflow -10.1% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Defense Contractors Outflow -11.3% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Cultural Thesis Outflow -11.7% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Travel Leisure Outflow -13.2% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. Airlines Outflow -13.6% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… China Tech Outflow -15.2% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Drone Defense Outflow -16.4% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… 8. Key Signals
Recorded signals · 63
9. Paper Trade Report Card
yolo $112,477 +12.5% 12 open · updated 2026-09-09
claude trader $109,854 +9.9% 20 open · updated 2026-09-09
momentum trader $100,870 +0.9% 3 open · updated 2026-09-09
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
bench signals $57,007 n/a 56 open · updated 2026-09-08
10. Active Perspectives
AI power: rack and chip conversion active high latest 2026-09-06
AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings active high latest 2026-09-06
AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp active high latest 2026-09-06
Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline active high latest 2026-09-06
Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI power: generation and grid equipment active high latest 2026-09-06
Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Today's Actions · 40 SYK $275.39 · UBER $71.08 · LULU $99.72
exit · 3
SYK $275.39 breaking down — -11.8% this week, 30.4% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 29.9% over the past year and 18.4% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
UBER $71.08 breaking down — -7.0% this week, 30.3% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 25.5% over the past year and 6.6% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
LULU $99.72 breaking down — -16.9% this week, 55.9% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 39.8% over the past year and 34.5% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
entry · 37
VLO breaking out at a fresh 52-week high after a +6.2% week — a +51% three-month run, not a one-week pop
USO breaking out 2.7% off its 52-week high after a +6.3% week
OKTA breaking out 1.2% off its 52-week high after a +5.9% week — a +50% three-month run, not a one-week pop
TSLA coming into play — 26.3% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.0% this week)
GLD coming into play — 20.9% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+0.1% this week)
IBM $231.80–244.00 coming into play — 27.8% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.6% this week) · in its $231.80–244.00 buy zone
COHR $299.22 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $299.22 · tape broken
CRDO $255.50 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $255.50 · tape broken trend-hold
MKSI watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
UUP watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $8.45 trend-hold
BE watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime)
CCJ watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
GLW $154.59 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $154.59
IREN $45.66 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $45.66
MRVL $224.58 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $224.58
AAPL no setup today — drifting down, -3.0% this week, 8.5% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — drifting down, -1.0% this week, 12.1% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — still in trend, -5.0% this week, 6.6% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, +12.5% this week, 41.6% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — still in trend, +5.4% this week, 65.1% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — moving sideways, -1.9% this week, 19.1% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, -8.2% this week, 64.3% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — still in trend, -3.9% this week, 11.6% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — under pressure, +1.3% this week, 54.9% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under pressure, +1.7% this week, 72.5% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — still in trend, +0.5% this week, 5.4% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — still in trend, -0.3% this week, 5.4% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — drifting down, +4.0% this week, 43.2% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under pressure, -13.9% this week, 66.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — under pressure, +3.8% this week, 63.4% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, +2.5% this week, 68.9% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under pressure, +2.5% this week, 73.8% off its 52-week high
SHOP no setup today — moving sideways, -10.6% this week, 30.4% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — still in trend, +13.6% this week, 25.1% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under pressure, -8.9% this week, 78.7% off its 52-week high
All Scans 2 complete · 29 without a dated artifact
market pulse missing
ai scan missing
ai infrastructure missing
biotech scan missing
nvda ecosystem missing
defensive scan missing
healthcare scan missing
consumer scan missing
retail scan missing
cloud etfs missing
cybersec missing
ev clean energy missing
etf universe missing
insider scan missing
bargain bin missing
tech insider buys missing
crypto scan missing
macro commodities missing
defense contractors missing
geopolitical risk missing
optical supply chain missing
drone defense missing
supply chain traces missing
wfe test metrology missing
food security missing
cultural thesis missing
airlines missing
chemicals missing
travel leisure missing
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 152, pullback: 430, uptrend: 256, downtrend: 119.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-09-09 vs 2026-09-08; 41 confirmed state-to-state flips, 0 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $AAPL basing -> uptrend; $ADBE pullback -> downtrend; $ARKK breakout -> uptrend; $ARW pullback -> uptrend; $ASAN pullback -> downtrend; $BTDR collapse -> pullback.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.39% as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
4.80% as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.40% as of 2026-09-09 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.63% as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.43% as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
332.8 as of 2026-07-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.67% as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
118.1 as of 2026-09-04 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
15.72 as of 2026-09-08 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.56 as of 2026-08-28 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Crypto (RS +24.0, 45% strong-up, today -1.1%), Memory (RS +21.3, 50% strong-up, today +1.0%), Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory (RS +20.8, 60% strong-up, today +2.8%) — OUT OF Drone Defense (RS -15.1), China Tech (RS -13.8), Airlines (RS -12.2). Benchmark SPY -1.4% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (accel +8.2, 67% up), Web Cloud (accel +8.1, 67% up), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (accel +7.8, 50% up), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +7.5, 100% up), Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (accel +5.6, 50% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Optical Supply Chain (accel +9.7, 38% up, led by SIVEF/SOI.PA/FLTCF), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging (accel +9.5, 44% up, led by INTC/GLW/ASX), WFE Test Metrology (accel +8.8, 29% up, led by FORM/CAMT/TER), Thebuildout Etch Equipment (accel +8.3, 17% up, led by LRCX/ENTG/AMAT), Thebuildout Deposition Equipment (accel +8.3, 0% up, led by LRCX/AMAT/KLAC). TURNING LAGGARDS (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): Thebuildout Deposition Equipment (30d -6.3, 7d +6.9, divergence +13.2), Optical Supply Chain (30d -3.9, 7d +8.8, divergence +12.7), Thebuildout Etch Equipment (30d -5.3, 7d +7.1, divergence +12.5), Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables (30d -5.2, 7d +7.0, divergence +12.2), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging (30d -1.5, 7d +9.2, divergence +10.7), Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment (30d -3.7, 7d +7.0, divergence +10.7), WFE Test Metrology (30d -2.4, 7d +8.3, divergence +10.7), Thebuildout Lithography Equipment (30d -3.4, 7d +6.9, divergence +10.3), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (30d -3.1, 7d +7.1, divergence +10.2), Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem (30d -3.1, 7d +7.0, divergence +10.0), Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries (30d -6.1, 7d +3.9, divergence +10.0), Quantum Computing (30d -7.4, 7d +2.2, divergence +9.6), Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (30d -1.6, 7d +7.8, divergence +9.4), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors (30d -6.7, 7d +2.5, divergence +9.2), Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors (30d -6.7, 7d +2.0, divergence +8.7), Grid Buildout (30d -5.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +8.5), Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling (30d -2.7, 7d +5.6, divergence +8.3), Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves (30d -5.3, 7d +2.8, divergence +8.1), AI Power (30d -3.0, 7d +4.9, divergence +7.9), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules (30d -2.7, 7d +4.9, divergence +7.6), Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways (30d -3.8, 7d +3.5, divergence +7.3), Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware (30d -4.9, 7d +2.0, divergence +7.0), Cybersec (30d -4.7, 7d +2.1, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (30d -1.5, 7d +5.3, divergence +6.7), Robotics (30d -6.1, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.7), Space (30d -6.1, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.7), Spacex S1 Supply Chain (30d -5.3, 7d +1.1, divergence +6.4), Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management (30d -3.1, 7d +3.2, divergence +6.3), Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers (30d -2.4, 7d +3.3, divergence +5.7), Electricity (30d -3.8, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.6), Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials (30d -4.4, 7d +1.2, divergence +5.6), Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering (30d -2.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +5.5), Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect (30d -2.5, 7d +2.9, divergence +5.4), Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power (30d -2.6, 7d +2.8, divergence +5.4), Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power (30d -2.4, 7d +3.0, divergence +5.4), Humanoid Robotics (30d -2.9, 7d +2.2, divergence +5.1), Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation (30d -2.4, 7d +2.2, divergence +4.5), Thebuildout Humanoid Robots Embodied AI (30d -3.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +4.4), Thebuildout Rare Earth Miners Processors (30d -3.6, 7d +0.7, divergence +4.3), Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials (30d -3.6, 7d +0.7, divergence +4.3), Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission (30d -2.0, 7d +1.7, divergence +3.7), Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases (30d -2.8, 7d +0.4, divergence +3.2), Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals (30d -2.8, 7d +0.4, divergence +3.2), EV Clean Energy (30d -2.6, 7d +0.5, divergence +3.1). Fading leaders: Food Security (accel -3.4, today -0.4%), IBB (accel -4.2, today -1.5%), Biotech (accel -4.1, today -1.5%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (accel +8.2, 67% up); Web Cloud (accel +8.1, 67% up); Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (accel +7.8, 50% up); Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +7.5, 100% up); Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (accel +5.6, 50% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): thebuildout-deposition-equipment (30d -6.3, 7d +6.9, divergence +13.2); optical-supply-chain (30d -3.9, 7d +8.8, divergence +12.7); thebuildout-etch-equipment (30d -5.3, 7d +7.1, divergence +12.5); thebuildout-cmp-slurries-consumables (30d -5.2, 7d +7.0, divergence +12.2); thebuildout-glass-core-panel-level-packaging (30d -1.5, 7d +9.2, divergence +10.7); thebuildout-advanced-packaging-equipment (30d -3.7, 7d +7.0, divergence +10.7); wfe-test-metrology (30d -2.4, 7d +8.3, divergence +10.7); thebuildout-lithography-equipment (30d -3.4, 7d +6.9, divergence +10.3); thebuildout-data-center-networking-silicon (30d -3.1, 7d +7.1, divergence +10.2); thebuildout-package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem (30d -3.1, 7d +7.0, divergence +10.0); thebuildout-trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries (30d -6.1, 7d +3.9, divergence +10.0); quantum-computing (30d -7.4, 7d +2.2, divergence +9.6); thebuildout-high-speed-pcbs-server-networking (30d -1.6, 7d +7.8, divergence +9.4); thebuildout-data-center-power-semiconductors (30d -6.7, 7d +2.5, divergence +9.2); thebuildout-semiconductor-ip-licensors (30d -6.7, 7d +2.0, divergence +8.7); grid-buildout (30d -5.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +8.5); thebuildout-data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling (30d -2.7, 7d +5.6, divergence +8.3); thebuildout-power-supplies-psu-power-shelves (30d -5.3, 7d +2.8, divergence +8.1); ai-power (30d -3.0, 7d +4.9, divergence +7.9); thebuildout-optical-transceivers-modules (30d -2.7, 7d +4.9, divergence +7.6); thebuildout-power-distribution-pdus-busways (30d -3.8, 7d +3.5, divergence +7.3); thebuildout-ai-sensors-perception-hardware (30d -4.9, 7d +2.0, divergence +7.0); cybersec (30d -4.7, 7d +2.1, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing (30d -1.5, 7d +5.3, divergence +6.7); robotics (30d -6.1, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.7); space (30d -6.1, 7d +0.6, divergence +6.7); spacex-s1-supply-chain (30d -5.3, 7d +1.1, divergence +6.4); thebuildout-data-center-thermal-management (30d -3.1, 7d +3.2, divergence +6.3); thebuildout-ups-energy-storage-data-centers (30d -2.4, 7d +3.3, divergence +5.7); electricity (30d -3.8, 7d +1.8, divergence +5.6); thebuildout-semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials (30d -4.4, 7d +1.2, divergence +5.6); thebuildout-semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering (30d -2.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +5.5); thebuildout-transformers-grid-interconnect (30d -2.5, 7d +2.9, divergence +5.4); thebuildout-fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power (30d -2.6, 7d +2.8, divergence +5.4); thebuildout-natural-gas-turbines-dc-power (30d -2.4, 7d +3.0, divergence +5.4); humanoid-robotics (30d -2.9, 7d +2.2, divergence +5.1); thebuildout-industrial-robotics-automation (30d -2.4, 7d +2.2, divergence +4.5); thebuildout-humanoid-robots-embodied-ai (30d -3.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +4.4); thebuildout-rare-earth-miners-processors (30d -3.6, 7d +0.7, divergence +4.3); thebuildout-photoresists-lithography-materials (30d -3.6, 7d +0.7, divergence +4.3); thebuildout-grid-infrastructure-transmission (30d -2.0, 7d +1.7, divergence +3.7); thebuildout-specialty-electronic-gases (30d -2.8, 7d +0.4, divergence +3.2); thebuildout-specialty-gases-process-chemicals (30d -2.8, 7d +0.4, divergence +3.2); ev-clean-energy (30d -2.6, 7d +0.5, divergence +3.1).
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY -0.5%, RSP -1.0%. 124 lanes with 3+ settled names; 1 closed at least 90% up, 28 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web Cloud | +4.7% | 6/9 | emerging (RS -0.3) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment | +3.1% | 2/4 | emerging (RS +1.8) |
| CPU Shortage Supply Chain | +3.0% | 7/8 of 9 | leading (RS +2.2) |
| Thebuildout Dram Memory | +2.8% | 3/4 | leading (RS +7.0) |
| Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory | +2.8% | 4/5 | leading (RS +20.8) |
| Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables | +1.4% | 2/4 of 5 | early-turn (RS -5.2) |
| Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials | +1.4% | 3/4 of 5 | neutral (RS -3.6) |
| Semis | +1.0% | 11/18 | leading (RS +2.0) |
| … 108 more | |||
| Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways | -2.1% | 0/10 | early-turn (RS -3.8) |
| Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect | -2.1% | 0/8 | early-turn (RS -2.5) |
| Alt Managers | -2.4% | 0/10 | lagging (RS -3.5) |
| EV Clean Energy | -2.8% | 0/22 | neutral (RS -2.6) |
| Quantum Computing | -2.9% | 0/13 | early-turn (RS -7.4) |
| Drone Defense | -3.0% | 1/21 | neutral (RS -15.1) |
| Neoclouds | -3.6% | 0/10 | leading (RS +8.1) |
| Space | -3.9% | 0/11 | neutral (RS -6.1) |
What moved together
- Neoclouds -3.6% median, 0 of 10 up; the 30-day rank reads leading — the month is strong, the day is not.
- Space -3.9% median, 0 of 11 up, 3.4 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Drone Defense -3.0% median, 1 of 21 up, 2.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Quantum Computing -2.9% median, 0 of 13 up, 2.4 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- EV Clean Energy -2.8% median, 0 of 22 up, 2.4 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Alt Managers -2.4% median, 0 of 10 up, 1.9 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power -2.1% median, 0 of 11 up, 1.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways -2.1% median, 0 of 10 up, 1.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect -2.1% median, 0 of 8 up, 1.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Defense Contractors -2.0% median, 0 of 12 up, 1.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $BRZE -21.7% on 3.7× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $CASY -14.2% on 7.3× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $KRMN -11.3% — attribution: blindside; no lane on file
- $NET +10.5% — attribution: contrary; Web Cloud +4.7% (6/9), Cybersec +0.1% (7/11), Focus -2.0% (5/25), Tech Insider Buys -0.8% (13/42); 1 more lane
- $DOT-USD -10.4% on 2.0× volume — attribution: watched; Crypto -0.8% (1/20)
- $UI -10.3% on 2.2× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $6779.T +8.7% on 3.9× volume — attribution: watched; Optical Supply Chain +0.0% (17/34)
- $AMBA +8.4% on 3.7× volume — attribution: blindside; Robotics -1.5% (11/47)
- $CMPS +8.1% on 3.4× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $AVAV -5.4% on 3.3× volume — attribution: unavailable; Drone Defense -3.0% (1/21)
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 16.46 (NORMAL) · 1d +4.7%. • VIX NORMAL — 16.46 (16-20). Baseline vol; no gate either way.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.2% · LQD -0.0% · IEF -0.3% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-08-24)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — 54% (Polymarket, as of 09-09; wk -5pt)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — 45% (Kalshi, as of 09-09; wk +6pt)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 1% (Polymarket, as of 09-09; wk -2pt)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — 1% (Kalshi, as of 09-09; wk +0pt)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 79% (Polymarket, as of 09-09; wk +3pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 8% (Polymarket, as of 09-09; wk +0pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 6% (Kalshi, as of 09-09; wk -3pt)
The Prints
- $CASY — Reported EPS $7.37 versus analyst consensus of $6.82 (+8.1%).
- $AVAV — Reported EPS $0.59 versus analyst consensus of $0.25 (+138.1%).
- $BRZE — Reported EPS $0.19 versus analyst consensus of $0.16 (+22.2%).
- ⚠ 1 scheduled print remains unresolved: a fresh search found no print-specific evidence for $KEN. Aggregator or overview pages establish neither that the company reported nor that it did not.
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-09-09 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SNDK | watch | A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $AMAT | watch | WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders,… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $CEG | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed);… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $COHR | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GEV | watch | WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLW | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $IREN | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag;… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $LRCX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $MRVL | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $MU | buy (in zone) | BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $NBIS | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SNDK | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SOXX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $TSM | watch | WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $VRT | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $WDC | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $BE | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $MKSI | watch | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SLV | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $AGIO | watch | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $DHR | watch (in zone) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $EWY | pass | the one-factor market: 16 of the last 45 sessions moved more than 4% — the template… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $KRE | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $BNO | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the oil leg of the monitor. BNO ~$57 is Brent ~$100 at the current… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $HYG | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $PSX | pass | same as VLO — RSI 80 at the high; nothing here to chase | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $SPY | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $TLT | watch (in zone) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $VLO | pass | the diesel-crack trade is made — RSI 74.8, 0.96% off its high, +35.46% in three… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | pending |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 | n/a |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 | +9.7% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +0.2% |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 | +16.4% |
| $SIL | watch (in zone) | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 | +10.0% |
| $SIMO | watch (in zone) | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 | +18.9% |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 | +41.3% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 | +13.8% |
| $UUP | watch | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 | +0.4% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +2.9% |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | +2.0% |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 | +7.3% |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | +11.6% |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 | +13.8% |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 | +12.0% |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | -9.4% |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +7.2% |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | -0.1% |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +9.5% |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +3.6% |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | +6.0% |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +11.1% |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | +8.0% |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +2.2% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +19.9% |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +6.7% |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | -2.4% |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | +11.2% |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | -5.1% |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | -9.9% |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (invalidation?) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -12.6% |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | +16.0% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -5.3% |
Resolved this week: $AMAT buy (2026-09-06); $COHR buy (2026-09-06); $GLW buy (2026-09-06); $IREN watch (2026-09-06); $LRCX buy (2026-09-06); $MRVL buy (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $SOXX buy (2026-09-06); $TSM buy (2026-09-06); $VRT buy (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06); $WDC watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $GEV watch (2026-09-06); $MU watch (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $MU watch (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $NBIS buy (2026-09-06); $MU buy (2026-09-06); $SNDK watch (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06).
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
web— Eric Nuttall - 60 days to the midterms with diesel at a record $XLE $XOP $VLO $PSX $MPC $USO $BNO · link- Nuttall frames the energy tape as a political clock: 60 days to the US midterms with $240/bbl diesel, $4.10/gallon gasoline and the 10-year at 4.75%, arguing pressure on the President to say or do something to push oil down only builds from here. Worth keeping because it landed the same session US national diesel set…
Filings
- NEW: $AMZN 424B5 filed 2026-09-09
- NEW: $AMZN 8-K filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-08)
- NEW: $QBTS 8-K/A filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-04)
- NEW: $ARQQ 6-K filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $ILMN 4 filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-05)
- NEW: $AA 8-K filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-04)
- NEW: $DELL 4 filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-04)
- NEW: $DELL 4 filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-04)
- NEW: $INTU 10-K filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-07-31)
- NEW: $SKHY 6-K filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $TSM 4 filed 2026-09-09 (period 2026-09-07)
- …and 118 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $AMZN 424B5 (2026-09-09); $AMZN 8-K (2026-09-09); $QBTS 8-K/A (2026-09-09); $ARQQ 6-K (2026-09-09); $ILMN 4 (2026-09-09); $AA 8-K (2026-09-09); $DDOG 4 (2026-09-09); $DELL 4 (2026-09-09); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-09-09. Row dates: 2026-09-09: 2580, 2026-09-08: 28.
- Summary coverage: 2580/2608 rows at 2026-09-09; 1140 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 287 up, 829 down, 11 flat across 1127 names; median 1D change -0.9%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 11 up, 44 down, 1 flat; median 1D change -0.6% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $NET | +10.5% | +15.2% | +1.2% | 58.6 | strong-up | $314.18 | ai-scan |
| $6779.T | +8.7% | +2.8% | -7.7% | 48.2 | weak-down | $2737.00 | optical-supply-chain |
| $AMBA | +8.4% | +2.5% | -16.1% | 45.6 | down | $68.80 | robotics |
| $CMPS | +8.1% | +14.7% | +15.1% | 64.7 | strong-up | $15.17 | monster-discoveries |
| $MXL | +7.5% | +19.0% | +4.5% | 53.9 | weak-down | $71.51 | optical-supply-chain |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $BRZE | -21.7% | -28.0% | -17.5% | 32.8 | Oversold | $23.73 | monster-discoveries |
| $CASY | -14.2% | -16.5% | -26.4% | 20.0 | Extreme oversold | $629.03 | monster-discoveries |
| $KRMN | -11.3% | -12.9% | -43.3% | 21.0 | Extreme oversold | $35.22 | monster-discoveries |
| $DOT-USD | -10.4% | +28.7% | +40.0% | 67.1 | Overbought | $1.12 | crypto |
| $UI | -10.3% | -13.0% | -8.8% | 33.7 | Oversold | $520.58 | holdings-stocks |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (7): $TNA -4.2%, $SOXL +2.1%, $SOXS -1.9%, $SPXL -1.4%, $UPRO -1.4%, $TQQQ -0.8%, $TECL +0.1% — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM entry-zone — support shelf <$166.15 | 2026-08-28 | $ARM | APPROACHING — $264.23 is 59.0% above under $166.15; waiting for the pullback | <$166.15 |
| AVGO entry-zone — support shelf <$352.12 / 200-day test | 2026-08-28 | $AVGO | APPROACHING — $364.38 is 3.5% above under $352.12; waiting for the pullback | <$352.12 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $140.80 is 49.0% below the $276 target, trend strong-down | $276.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $24.32 is 46.0% below the $45 target, trend strong-up | $45.00 |
| UMAC stop-loss — $18.50 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | HOLDING — $24.32 is 31.5% above the $18.50 stop | $18.50 |
| GDX profit-target — $115.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | APPROACHING — $99.47 is 13.5% below the $115 target, trend up | $115.00 |
| GDX stop-loss — $85.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | HOLDING — $99.47 is 17.0% above the $85 stop | $85.00 |
| NVTS entry-zone — $8-$10 | 2026-07-31 | $NVTS | APPROACHING — $11.60 is 16.0% above $8–$10; waiting for the pullback | $8-$10 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 744;
convergentCount11;divergentCount13.