Biotech Scan
Biotech Scan
The top of the cohort kept pushing higher, and two more names crossed into extreme territory this week: $A hit RSI 75.1 and $MRNA hit 76.1, joining $ILMN (73.7) and $DNA (73.7, up from 61.3 after a sharp weekly surge) above the desk's extended-momentum line. $NVO bounced modestly off Wednesday's oversold print — RSI 27.5 to 31.0 — but stays firmly in breakdown territory on a sourced guidance disappointment that hasn't resolved. The capitulation band that opened two scans ago is empty again: $NKTR eased off its low (24.6 to 27.1) and $IMVT slid the other way (28.5 to 25.1), both still deeply weak but neither below the RSI-25 line as of Friday's close.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close (Friday's settled session, per the pre-computed scan summary) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar; universe unchanged at 39 tickers.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 The extended top keeps extending — five names now sit above RSI 70 — while the bottom stays weak without deepening into fresh capitulation |
| Leaders | $MRNA (RSI 76.1, extreme, +708.13% on the year); $A (75.1, newly extreme, +41.76% on the year); $DNA (73.7, up from 61.3 this week, though still -5.24% on the year); $ILMN (73.7, +192.87% on the year, thesis flagged intact-but-priced) |
| Laggards | $IMVT (25.1, deepened from 28.5, still +112.51% on the year — a pullback, not a breakdown); $NKTR (27.1, eased slightly off Wednesday's capitulation low, still -12.8% below its 200-day); $IONS (29.8); $NVO (31.0, bounced off Wednesday's low but still down 30.76% on the year) |
| Key insight | Five names now sit above RSI 70 — up from three two sessions ago — while nothing in the cohort has fallen into fresh capitulation; the split between an extended top and a merely-weak (not collapsing) bottom is widening |
| Caveat | $IMVT has no news file on record at all; $EDIT's last pull (June 21) and $BMRN's (July 7) both predate this week's moves by months — that silence is a coverage gap, not evidence nothing happened |
What's Going On
The extended top of the cohort added two more names this week. $A (Agilent) closed at $172.79, RSI 75.1, up from 69.5 two sessions ago on a 10.43% weekly gain — now 30.8% above its 200-day. $MRNA closed at $198.88, RSI 76.1, up from 71.9, continuing the extreme multi-quarter run this scan has tracked for weeks; the desk's own aggregated news roundup for the name (pulled September 25) points to September Phase 3 melanoma data that secured a presidential symposium slot and rising flu-shot-season demand as contributors to the month's strength, though that roundup blends several weeks of headlines rather than dating a single catalyst to this week specifically. $DNA (Ginkgo Bioworks) is the week's sharpest mover in either direction: RSI jumped from 61.3 to 73.7 on a 35.28% weekly surge and a 47.44% monthly one. Its news file reports the company joined the ARPA-H GIVE program to build autonomous RNA-medicine manufacturing capacity, dated to this week — a plausible contributor, though the article's own text describes a share decline the prior session, not the full week's surge, so the size of the move isn't fully accounted for by that item alone. $DNA remains down 5.24% on the year despite the pop.
At the bottom, nothing broke further this week. $NVO closed $38.80, RSI 31.0, up from Wednesday's 27.5 low, still carrying the sourced 2030-guidance disappointment flagged two scans ago; the name remains 15.5% below its 200-day with a -30.76% year, and no new news has surfaced since the September 20 guidance reaction. $NKTR closed $57.06, RSI 27.1, having eased off Wednesday's 24.6 capitulation print without a driver ever surfacing — the name is still 12.8% below its 200-day. $IMVT moved the other way, dropping from RSI 28.5 to 25.1, but it remains 5.7% above its 200-day with a 112.51% year — still a deep pullback inside a working trend, not a breakdown, and it has no news file on record to check for a cause either way.
$BMRN dropped back into deeper oversold territory, RSI 39.3 to 33.3, but its own news file was last pulled July 7 and can't speak to this week's move. $EDIT fell sharply in a single session (RSI 43.7 to 40.8 on a 6.18% one-day drop) with a news file that predates the move by three months. $ILMN and $TMO both held their near-extreme perches (73.7 and 72.5), and $IQV, $BIIB and $ABBV all continued climbing inside trends this scan has called healthy for weeks.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23)
- $A and $MRNA both crossed into the extreme band (RSI 70+ and climbing past 75). A: RSI 69.5 → 75.1, price $165.32 → $172.79 (+10.4% on the week). MRNA: RSI 71.9 → 76.1, price $182.11 → $198.88 (+9.2% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a 7-day figure), still on the desk's aggregated-roundup rationale, not a single dated catalyst.
- $DNA surged from the middle of the cohort into the extreme band. RSI 61.3 → 73.7, price $8.58 → $10.66 (+24.2%), on a reported ARPA-H GIVE program partnership that only partly explains the size of the move.
- The capitulation band emptied again. $NKTR eased off Wednesday's low (RSI 24.6 → 27.1); $IMVT slid into the gap it left (RSI 28.5 → 25.1) — both still deeply weak, neither below the RSI-25 line as of Friday.
- $NVO bounced off its low without resolving the underlying break. RSI 27.5 → 31.0, price $38.17 → $38.80 — still 15.5% below its 200-day, no new news since the September 20 guidance reaction.
- $BMRN slid back into deeper oversold. RSI 39.3 → 33.3, price $62.21 → $60.26 (-3.1% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — its news file (last pulled July 7) can't speak to the move.
- $EDIT dropped sharply in a single session. RSI 43.7 → 40.8 on a -6.18% one-day move; its news file predates this by three months.
- $BIIB's unexplained jump from two sessions ago has stabilized. RSI 63.4 → 62.8, price essentially flat — the earlier 13-point RSI gain hasn't reversed or extended.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-25 close. Universe unchanged at 39 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures stretch over the last fourteen sessions: under 30 is oversold, over 70 near-overbought, over 75 extreme. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day average are what separate a pullback from a breakdown, and this cut still shows both patterns side by side at similar RSI readings. $IMVT (RSI 25.1) sits 5.7% above its 200-day with a 112.51% year — a deep pullback in a trend that has worked all year. $NKTR (RSI 27.1) sits 12.8% below its 200-day with a barely positive year — a trend genuinely under test, with no established cause for the weakness. At the top, $ILMN and $DNA both carry extreme RSI readings, but $ILMN is up 192.87% on the year while $DNA is still down 5.24% — one is an extended winner, the other a sharp bounce inside a name that hasn't turned its year around yet.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMVT | $33.30 | 25.1 | $37.76 | -11.8% | -9.9% | -24.1% | +112.5% | +5.7% | 🟡 Deep pullback, trend intact |
| NKTR | $57.06 | 27.1 | $68.40 | -16.6% | -15.0% | -22.7% | +2.6% | -12.8% | 🔴 Still weak, cause unknown |
| IONS | $44.50 | 29.8 | $51.95 | -14.3% | +0.1% | -29.8% | -29.3% | -37.5% | 🔴 Deep structural break |
| NVO | $38.80 | 31.0 | $43.13 | -10.0% | -10.3% | -17.8% | -30.8% | -15.5% | 🔴 Broken, sourced cause |
| RARE | $14.50 | 31.4 | $16.71 | -13.2% | -0.1% | -45.2% | -47.9% | -41.1% | 🔴 Deepest structural break |
| BMRN | $60.26 | 33.3 | $64.54 | -6.6% | -5.8% | -8.2% | +14.5% | +3.0% | 🟡 Back into oversold, trend thin |
| COGT | $32.31 | 39.8 | $33.44 | -3.4% | +2.6% | -12.0% | +143.1% | -11.7% | 🟡 Big run digesting below 200d |
| BEAM | $24.27 | 40.6 | $26.06 | -6.9% | -2.7% | -19.6% | +5.1% | -15.0% | 🔴 Structurally weak |
| MDT | $88.64 | 40.7 | $91.71 | -3.4% | -3.8% | -3.7% | -6.0% | -0.4% | 🟡 Flat, sitting on its 200-day |
| EDIT | $2.58 | 40.8 | $2.86 | -9.6% | -4.4% | -18.9% | -20.1% | -2.2% | 🔴 Sharp one-day drop |
| KYMR | $111.95 | 42.5 | $116.82 | -4.2% | -4.9% | -10.8% | +108.3% | +21.1% | 🟢 Healthy, pulled back |
| SRPT | $18.67 | 43.5 | $20.75 | -10.0% | -7.2% | -4.1% | +5.4% | -2.8% | 🟡 Flat, thin trend |
| NTLA | $11.75 | 43.8 | $12.27 | -4.2% | -3.2% | -10.9% | -29.3% | -8.1% | 🔴 Negative year, below 200d |
| XBI | $155.03 | 44.2 | $159.17 | -2.6% | -1.1% | -7.9% | +61.7% | +12.3% | 🟢 Cohort fund |
| PTGX | $141.86 | 46.0 | $144.61 | -1.9% | -0.8% | -6.4% | +119.3% | +28.9% | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| LEGN | $19.11 | 46.4 | $19.37 | -1.3% | +8.5% | -7.6% | -41.8% | -15.1% | 🔴 Bounce, trend still broken |
| CRSP | $54.23 | 47.1 | $55.34 | -2.0% | -4.1% | -8.4% | -10.1% | +1.7% | 🟡 Negative year despite RSI |
| REGN | $788.04 | 48.0 | $801.89 | -1.7% | +0.4% | -3.3% | +41.9% | +7.1% | 🟢 Healthy pullback |
| BNTX | $98.52 | 48.6 | $99.36 | -0.8% | +2.6% | -12.5% | +0.5% | +0.9% | 🟡 Flat year, at 200d |
| DXCM | $86.62 | 48.7 | $87.58 | -1.1% | -3.1% | -2.6% | +26.8% | +19.4% | 🟢 Cooled off, trend intact |
| INCY | $123.89 | 49.0 | $124.88 | -0.8% | -1.1% | -3.3% | +51.7% | +16.6% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| IBBQ | $35.00 | 51.1 | $35.13 | -0.4% | +0.9% | -4.3% | +49.3% | +13.7% | 🟢 Cohort fund |
| VRTX | $526.19 | 53.3 | $526.87 | -0.1% | +3.5% | -3.9% | +37.8% | +11.5% | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| RXRX | $3.74 | 55.4 | $3.51 | +6.7% | -2.4% | +7.2% | -19.2% | +4.3% | 🟡 Negative year despite RSI |
| LLY | $1,183.46 | 55.7 | $1,150.81 | +2.8% | +2.7% | -0.5% | +65.6% | +10.6% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| IBB | $209.77 | 55.8 | $207.55 | +1.1% | +2.6% | -2.5% | +50.8% | +16.5% | 🟢 Cohort fund |
| ALNY | $255.96 | 55.9 | $249.85 | +2.4% | +6.9% | +7.1% | -43.1% | -16.6% | 🔴 Breakdown |
| AMGN | $414.61 | 56.4 | $404.90 | +2.4% | +7.5% | -5.8% | +52.9% | +14.5% | 🟢 Healthy, continuing climb |
| ABBV | $264.34 | 58.5 | $260.08 | +1.6% | +0.1% | +0.6% | +21.0% | +14.7% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| GILD | $150.93 | 59.7 | $148.56 | +1.6% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +36.0% | +11.0% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| IQV | $270.37 | 60.6 | $265.65 | +1.8% | +1.5% | +3.4% | +53.0% | +32.0% | 🟢 Healthy, extended |
| BIIB | $227.60 | 62.8 | $219.25 | +3.8% | +5.6% | +3.0% | +67.8% | +17.4% | 🟢 Stabilized, healthy trend |
| ISRGE | $405.18 | 65.4 | $379.06 | +6.9% | +3.0% | +9.4% | -7.5% | -10.1% | 🔴 Bounce, long trend still broken |
| DHR | $224.49 | 68.9 | $211.40 | +6.2% | +6.0% | +4.2% | +23.7% | +11.2% | 🟢 Extended, healthy trend |
| TMO | $675.00 | 72.5 | $632.57 | +6.7% | +3.6% | +6.5% | +47.0% | +24.9% | 🟠 Near-extreme, trend intact |
| DNA | $10.66 | 73.7 | $7.63 | +39.8% | +35.3% | +47.4% | -5.2% | +29.1% | 🟠 Sharp surge, still negative year |
| ILMN | $270.00 | 73.7 | $227.15 | +18.9% | +12.7% | +20.1% | +192.9% | +69.5% | 🟠 Extreme extension continuing |
| A | $172.79 | 75.1 | $154.75 | +11.7% | +10.4% | +11.4% | +41.8% | +30.8% | 🔴 Now extreme, crossed 75 |
| MRNA | $198.88 | 76.1 | $155.69 | +27.7% | +29.1% | +32.9% | +708.1% | +209.5% | 🔴 Extreme, continuing multi-quarter run |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None this scan. $NKTR (27.1) and $IMVT (25.1) both sit just above the line — the band that opened two sessions ago is technically empty, though both names remain deeply weak.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$IMVT (25.1), $NKTR (27.1), $IONS (29.8), $NVO (31.0), $RARE (31.4), $BMRN (33.3), $COGT (39.8) — seven names. Only $IMVT (+112.51% year, +5.7% vs. its 200-day) and $COGT (+143.12% year, though below its 200-day) pass or partially pass the long test — those are pullbacks. $IONS, $NVO and $RARE fail both legs outright; $NVO is the one with a sourced cause.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Structurally broken (below the 200-day with a flat-to-negative year): $BEAM, $EDIT, $NTLA, $LEGN, $ALNY, $ISRG. $EDIT's one-day drop and $LEGN's bounce don't change either read.
- Negative year but holding the 200-day: $MDT, $SRPT, $CRSP, $RXRX, $BNTX — the ambiguous middle.
- Pullback, trend intact: $KYMR, $XBI, $PTGX, $REGN, $DXCM, $INCY, $IBBQ, $VRTX, $LLY, $IBB, $AMGN, $ABBV, $GILD, $IQV — all above the 200-day with a positive year.
- Healthy and working, extended: $BIIB, $DHR.
- Near-extreme to extreme: $TMO, $DNA, $ILMN, $A, $MRNA — five names above RSI 70, the widest this scan has recorded.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMVT | $33.30 | $27.17 (a prior support shelf) up to $37.76 (its 20-day) | 25.1 | +112.5% | Deep pullback with the long trend firmly intact, 5.7% above its 200-day; a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation |
| BMRN | $60.26 | $56.05 (a prior support shelf) | 33.3 | +14.5% | Back into oversold, long trend still thin but intact |
| PTGX | $141.86 | $101.26 (a prior support shelf) to $144.61 (its 20-day) | 46.0 | +119.3% | Strong trend intact, 28.9% above its 200-day |
| KYMR | $111.95 | $89.12 (a prior support shelf) | 42.5 | +108.3% | Healthy trend, pulled back this week |
| NVO | $38.80 | $38.14 (a prior support shelf), just below the price | 31.0 | -30.8% | Sourced breakdown with no confirmed floor beyond the nearby shelf; not an entry signal yet |
| NKTR | $57.06 | No support shelf identified | 27.1 | +2.6% | Still deeply weak with no established cause and no confirmed floor — a watch item, not an entry |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIIB, DHR, INCY, AMGN, DXCM, ABBV, GILD, IQV | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Above the 200-day with a positive year and positive alpha; $DHR and $IQV are the most extended of the group |
| KYMR, XBI, PTGX, REGN, IBBQ, VRTX, LLY, IBB | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside intact trends — below their 20-day, above their 200-day, positive years |
| IMVT, BMRN, COGT | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold or digesting with the long trend intact; confirm a floor before adding |
| MDT, SRPT, CRSP, RXRX, BNTX | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Negative-to-flat years above their long averages — the ambiguous middle |
| TMO, DNA, ILMN | 🟠 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Trends working or bouncing hard, prices now stretched into near-extreme-to-extreme territory |
| A, MRNA | 🔴 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Both crossed into the extreme band (RSI 75+) this week |
| NVO, NKTR, IONS, RARE, BEAM, EDIT, NTLA, LEGN, ALNY, ISRG | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a flat-to-negative year; $NVO has a sourced cause, the rest do not |
What To Watch Next
- $A and $MRNA both crossed into the extreme band (RSI 75+) this week, joining $ILMN and $DNA above 70. Five names now sit in that territory — the widest this scan has tracked. Whether that resolves as a group pullback or the trends keep running is the top of the cohort's open question.
- $DNA's 35.28% weekly surge has a partial explanation (the ARPA-H GIVE program partnership) but the article describing it also mentions a share decline the prior day — the full size of the move isn't accounted for. Worth a fresh news pull before the next scan.
- $NKTR eased off Wednesday's capitulation low without a driver ever surfacing, and $IMVT slid into the gap it left. Neither is below RSI 25 as of Friday, but both remain fragile — watch whether either crosses back under the line.
- $NVO bounced off its low but the underlying guidance-driven breakdown hasn't resolved; no news has surfaced since the September 20 reaction. Whether the next print changes that read is the name's open question.
- $BMRN and $EDIT both weakened sharply this week with stale news files (July 7 and June 21 respectively) that can't speak to either move. Fresh pulls on both should be a priority before the next scan.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — biotech-scan.
- $MRNA September strength (Phase 3 melanoma data, presidential symposium slot, flu-shot demand): latest (pulled 2026-09-25; aggregated roundup, dates within the article are approximate).
- $DNA ARPA-H GIVE program partnership: latest (pulled 2026-09-25; FT.com item).
- $NVO 2030-guidance reaction (carried from the prior scan, no new development since): latest (pulled 2026-09-23).
- News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-06-21, predates the move),
BMRN(pulled 2026-07-07, predates the move),EDIT(pulled 2026-06-21, predates the move).IMVThas no news file on record. Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25 window: only GIS, MU, SFIX, ACN, BB, COST, JBL, LPTH and UEC earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-biotech-scan.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.