Biotech gave back the October 9 recovery: 15 of 40 names rose over 7D (31 of 40 a week ago) and only 4 of 40 rose on Friday, leaving 26 of 40 below their 20-day average (19 a week ago). The genomics squeeze unwound on Friday ($GRAL -13.03%, $DNA -12.67%, $RXRX -16.59%), $MRNA fell 7.82% on Friday a week after its 52-week high, and $IMVT (RSI 13.2) and $NKTR (RSI 20.6) are the capitulation names. Still working: large-cap pharma, with $LLY +6.59% and $REGN +5.92% over 7D, $ABBV at RSI 71.1, and the biotech funds still above their 200-day averages on positive years.

Data as of the 2026-10-16 settled close; 40 tickers, every one carrying a 2026-10-16 bar.

The week reversed. $XBI fell 3.65% on Friday and 6.15% over 7D to $144.32 (RSI 35.9), 5.9% below its 20-day, but still 3.0% above its 200-day ($140.16) on a +33.74% 1Y. $IBB lost only 2.18% over 7D (RSI 45.8, 10.5% above its 200-day, +31.66% 1Y). Biotech fell with the Nasdaq-100 rather than away from it: the QQQ fund was -5.52% over 7D and the equal-weight S&P fund (RSP) +0.49% in the October 16 market conditions read, and Bloomberg's October 16 market wrap called it the S&P 500's biggest weekly loss since June. An Endpoints News item dated October 16 says China is pursuing an export ban on some biotech platforms while leaving drug licensing intact; no source on file ties it to Friday's tape, when 4 of 40 names rose. The same day's feed reports EU committee backing for Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill ($LLY +0.43% on the day).

The genomics run of recent weeks gave way. $GRAL closed at $117.81, 13.03% lower on Friday and 16.20% lower over 7D, taking RSI from 67.8 to 48.6; it is still +56.85% over 30D and 55.1% above its 200-day ($75.94) on a +36.34% 1Y, so the long trend is intact and the short trend is not. $DNA (-21.00% 7D) and $RXRX (-20.41% 7D, $3.47) fell harder; $RXRX is now 2.6% below its 200-day on a -45.44% 1Y. A StockMarketWatch item dated October 15 ties $RXRX's Thursday gain to a Sanofi collaboration; Friday's decline has no item on file. $MRNA closed at $218.01 (-7.82% Friday, RSI 61.7 from 72.1), still 181.7% above its 200-day on a +703.28% 1Y; the October 12 market brief tied its October 9 pop to its Nasdaq-100 addition (StockAnalysis), and Friday's drop has no item on file.

The damage is in the long trends. $IMVT closed at $26.73 and RSI 13.2, 16.2% below its 200-day ($31.91) on a +53.53% 1Y, a strong year now under test; its support shelf at $25.90 sits just under the close. $NKTR (RSI 20.6) is -46.90% over 30D and 45.1% below its 200-day on a -34.90% 1Y. $CRSP, $EDIT, $NTLA and $RXRX were above their 200-day averages on negative years a week ago and are now below them, which makes the long trend broken.

Large-cap pharma and tools held. $LLY ($1,257.03, RSI 68.6), $REGN, $TMO, $AMGN, $GILD and $DHR all closed above their 20-day and 200-day averages on positive years; $ABBV (RSI 71.1) is extended. $MDT gained 7.09% over 7D to RSI 64.1 but sits 7.3% above its 200-day on a -0.31% 1Y.

• Extended band shrank: 1 of 40 at RSI 70 or higher ($ABBV), from 2; $MRNA left it (RSI 72.1 to 61.7). None at RSI 80 or higher.
• Capitulation band narrowed to two names ($IMVT, $NKTR) from three; $BMRN moved to RSI 31.4 and into the oversold band, which now holds 11 names (3 a week ago): $BMRN, $PTGX, $BNTX, $XBI, $IONS, $RARE, $COGT, $KYMR, $CRSP, $INCY, $EDIT.
• Breadth: below the 20-day, 26 of 40 (19 a week ago); below the 200-day, 17 of 40 (13); negative year, 16 of 40 (unchanged); up over 7D, 15 of 40 (31); up on Friday, 4 of 40.
• Long-trend changes: $CRSP, $EDIT, $NTLA and $RXRX moved from under test to broken. $IMVT stays under test, now far below its 200-day.
• Leaders rotated: last week's top group ($MRNA, $ABBV, $GRAL, $ILMN, $DNA) gave way to pharma and tools. Universe unchanged: the same 40 tickers as the October 9 edition.

RSI measures stretch over fourteen sessions: under 30 oversold, 70 and over extended. The long tests decide what a low RSI means: above the 200-day with a positive year is an intact trend (a pullback), one test failed is a trend under test, both failed is broken. A name down 15% or more over 7D, or 10% or more below its 20-day, is a deep pullback: wait for a flag, not a bounce. This board carries price, RSI and trend only, with no insider, fundamental or clinical-trial layer, so a low RSI is raw screen evidence, not a setup. Sub-$5 shares ($RXRX, $EDIT) carry business risk this board cannot grade.

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.

$IMVT, $NKTR

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $IMVT; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $NKTR.

$BMRN, $PTGX, $BNTX, $XBI, $IONS, $RARE, $COGT, $KYMR, $CRSP, $INCY, $EDIT

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) $PTGX, $XBI, $KYMR, $INCY; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $BMRN, $COGT; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $BNTX, $IONS, $RARE, $CRSP, $EDIT.

$BEAM, $SRPT, $NVO, $NTLA, $VRTX, $RXRX, $IBBQ, $IBB, $LEGN, $ALNY, $DNA, $GRAL, $DXCM, $ILMN, $IQV, $REGN, $BIIB, $MRNA, $A, $AMGN, $DHR, $GILD, $TMO, $MDT, $ISRG, $LLY, $ABBV

Of these, RSI 70 or higher: $ABBV

Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries.

• $IMVT: the line is its 200-day average ($31.91); the shelf at $25.90 is the floor to watch, and a close under it extends a decline already at RSI 13.2. Immunovant is scheduled to report November 9.
• $XBI: the close is 3.0% above its 200-day ($140.16). A close under it moves the fund from pullback to trend under test; a close back above its 20-day ($153.29) would mark the turn.
• Genomics ($GRAL, $DNA, $RXRX, $ILMN): whether the unwind stops above the 200-day averages ($75.94 for $GRAL, $169.65 for $ILMN). $ILMN is 54.8% above its 200-day on a +173.74% 1Y; it reports October 29 (scheduled).
• $INCY (RSI 39.4, 5.2% above its 200-day): the 200-day ($107.50) and shelf ($103.25) are the floor. Incyte is estimated to report October 29.
• $BMRN: shelf $53.33 against a $54.68 close, 200-day $58.56; BioMarin is scheduled to report October 26.
• $LLY and $ABBV: both near their highs (2.76% and 2.05% below); the first close under the 20-day ($1,178.76 and $269.93) is the first crack. $LLY is scheduled to report October 29.

• Tape data: pre-computed desk summary for the biotech universe, as of the 2026-10-16 settled close (biotech-scan).
• Market conditions: 2026-10-16-market-conditions (QQQ and RSP 7D). Endpoints News, October 16: China pursues export ban on some biotech platforms and CHMP endorses Eli Lilly's GLP-1 pill (captures under 2026-10-16-endpointsnews-*). Bloomberg, S&P 500 worst week since June (2026-10-16-bloomberg-s-p-500-suffers-worst-week-since-june-as-ai-fears-hit-chipma-tmzzr4t96osi00).
• News receipts: stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json` for GRAL (fetched 2026-10-06), DNA and MRNA (2026-10-09; StockAnalysis, Moderna), IMVT (2026-10-09), NKTR (2026-10-03), RXRX (2026-10-15 evening PT; StockMarketWatch, Recursion). None covers an October 16 move.
• Market brief: 2026-10-12-market-brief (Moderna's Nasdaq-100 addition and Monday giveback).
• Event calendar: research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16 (no non-earnings entries for these names); scheduled or estimated dates from 2026-10-26-bmrn-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-ilmn-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-lly-earnings.md, 2026-10-29-incy-earnings.md (estimated) and 2026-11-09-imvt-earnings.md. Four GRAIL Form 4 filings dated 2026-10-16 are on file (2026-10-16-gral-4-0001628280-26-066150 reviewed: a director share award).
• Prior scan: 2026-10-09-biotech-scan (structure, universe, and its October 9 readings cited as history).