Biotech Scan

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Biotech Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 104 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-10-02-biotech-scan.md

Biotech closed the week of October 9 broadly higher (31 of 40 names up over five sessions, 36 of 40 up on Friday alone), with $MRNA closing at a new 52-week high at RSI 72.1 after a 14.21% Friday. Last week's genomics squeeze cooled rather than broke: $GRAL fell from RSI 82.0 to 67.8 and $ILMN and $DNA left the extended band. What broke: $IMVT slid to RSI 20.5 and closed 4.4% below its 200-day average, so the cohort's one oversold name with an intact trend a week ago is now a trend under test. $NKTR and $BMRN stay oversold at RSI 22.9.

Data as of the 2026-10-09 settled close; 40 tickers, every one carrying a 2026-10-09 bar.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 Broad recovery week: 31 of 40 up, 21 of 40 back above their 20-day average, the biotech funds above their 200-day averages on positive years
Leaders $MRNA (new 52-week high, extended); $ABBV (extended, just under its high); $GRAL, $ILMN and $DNA (cooled from extreme, still well above their 200-day averages)
Laggards $IMVT (capitulation RSI, now below its 200-day); $NKTR (capitulation, long trend broken); $BMRN (capitulation, below its 200-day on a flat year)
Key insight The oversold names are no longer pullbacks: all three sub-25 readings sit below their 200-day averages. The pullbacks worth studying are above them: $INCY oversold, $KYMR, $VRTX and $REGN resting below their 20-day averages
Caveat No driver is on file for Friday's moves in $MRNA, $DNA or $RXRX: their news was last pulled October 6 or earlier and no October 9 news is on file; the event calendar holds nothing for them this week

What's Going On

The week ended on a broad bid. $XBI and $IBB each gained 3.0% on Friday; $XBI (RSI 46.2) is still 1.0% below its 20-day and -0.43% on the week, while $IBB (50.7) closed on its 20-day, +0.58% on the week. Both stay above their 200-day averages (10.2% and 13.5%) on positive years (+44.36% and +35.8%), so the cohort's long trend is intact and its short trend is repairing. Breadth improved: 19 of 40 names sit below their 20-day average, down from 26 a week ago.

$MRNA is the week's standout: $225.00, +14.21% on Friday on 1.69 times average volume, +18.41% on the week and +65.92% over 30 days, closing at its 52-week high at RSI 72.1. It is 209.8% above its 200-day on a +717.29% year, the most stretched long trend on the board. No driver is on file: its news was last pulled September 30, the October 7 market brief logged its +4.81% day that week as cause unknown, and no October 9 news is on file. $ABBV joined it in the extended band (RSI 71.2, +5.19% on the week, 0.41% below its high, 18.8% above its 200-day).

Last week's genomics squeeze cooled. $GRAL went from RSI 82.0 to 67.8 and lost 1.87% on the week despite a 6.01% Friday; it remains 87.8% above its 200-day on a +97.64% year. Its run has a dated backdrop, not a weekly cause: GRAIL's investor page records the FDA advisory committee vote in favor of approving the Galleri test on September 23. $DNA whipsawed: the October 5 and 6 market briefs logged a 21.3% gain and a 17.16% loss with no cause found, and it added 14.64% on Friday (news last pulled October 6). It is 54.2% above its 200-day but still -14.7% on the year, a bounce that has not repaired the year. $RXRX gained 10.38% on Friday at $4.36; its October 5 jump had a receipt (StocksToTrade tied it to Tempus AI extending their deal to 2029), Friday's does not. $ILMN (62.9) is 67.3% above its 200-day on a +188.41% year and 10.08% below its high.

The damage is in three names. $IMVT fell 9.37% on the week to $30.47 and RSI 20.5, 4.4% below its 200-day ($31.86) with a +74.31% year: a strong year whose long trend is now under test. Its 30-day decline of 21.37% includes Immunovant's September 23 release that IMVT-1402 missed its primary endpoint in cutaneous lupus and that development there would stop; this week's leg has no dated item (news pulled October 3). $NKTR (RSI 22.9) is 36.9% below its 200-day, -43.85% over 30 days and -26.01% on the year: broken. $BMRN (22.9) is 6.6% below its 200-day on a +1.76% year with negative alpha, sitting on its nearest support shelf ($54.24 against a $54.80 close).

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-02)

  • Extended band rotated. A week ago it held $GRAL, $DNA and $ILMN; now it holds $MRNA and $ABBV. None of the 40 is at RSI 80 or higher.
  • Capitulation band widened from one name ($NKTR) to three ($IMVT, $BMRN, $NKTR).
  • Breadth: below the 20-day, 19 of 40 (26 a week ago); below the 200-day, 13 of 40 (16 a week ago); negative year, 16 of 40 (unchanged).
  • Long-trend changes: $IMVT dropped below its 200-day (intact a week ago, now under test). $REGN moved back above its 200-day on a positive year (under test a week ago, now intact). $MDT, $EDIT and $NTLA moved from broken to under test: $MDT is back to its 200-day on a negative year, $EDIT and $NTLA sit above their 200-day averages on negative years.
  • Universe unchanged: the same 40 tickers as the October 2 edition.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures stretch over fourteen sessions: under 30 oversold, 70 and over extended, 80 and over extreme. The long tests decide what a low RSI means: above the 200-day with a positive year is an intact trend (a pullback), one test failed is a trend under test, both failed is broken. A name more than 10% above its 20-day is treated as stretched even with RSI under 70. This board carries price, RSI and trend only, with no insider, fundamental or pipeline layer, so a low RSI is raw screen evidence, not a setup. Sub-$5 shares ($RXRX, $EDIT) carry business risk this board cannot grade.

Price Table

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.

Stock Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) As of Signal
IMVT 30.47 20.5 34.39 -11.4 -9.37 -21.37 74.31 -4.4 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
BMRN 54.8 22.9 60.47 -9.4 -4.16 -14.92 1.76 -6.6 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
NKTR 41.17 22.9 55.75 -26.2 -5.53 -43.85 -26.01 -36.9 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
INCY 112.79 31.4 120.69 -6.5 -2.18 -10.49 33.09 5.2 2026-10-09 🟡 Pullback, trend intact
NVO 38.64 37.9 39.44 -2 3.54 -13.29 -34.15 -14.9 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
COGT 31 39.5 31.69 -2.2 -0.06 -9.3 91.48 -14.3 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
IONS 45.28 40.6 45.08 0.5 4 -19.17 -35.56 -34.9 2026-10-09 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
REGN 746.54 42.1 766.46 -2.6 1.54 -7.57 30.99 1.5 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
DXCM 84.11 42.1 86.53 -2.8 -1.46 0.27 23.55 14.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
SRPT 17.85 42.5 18.91 -5.6 2 -18.94 -22.83 -6.2 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
RARE 15.48 43.1 14.62 5.9 1.71 8.18 -51.11 -34.4 2026-10-09 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
LEGN 18.62 44.8 18.57 0.3 0.27 -6.48 -42.21 -16.6 2026-10-09 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
ALNY 232.68 45.2 239.66 -2.9 5.9 -9.81 -49.08 -22.1 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
VRTX 510.08 45.6 513.81 -0.7 1.06 -2.12 22.95 7.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
XBI 153.77 46.2 155.38 -1 -0.43 -3.52 44.36 10.2 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
CRSP 53.39 46.7 54.89 -2.7 -3.68 -0.11 -28.74 0.3 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
IQV 259.88 47.9 266.2 -2.4 0.65 1.13 28.02 25.7 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
BNTX 96.96 48.3 97.43 -0.5 0.06 -1.19 -7.2 -0.8 2026-10-09 🔴 Long trend broken
MDT 88.48 48.3 89.33 -0.9 2.43 -3.71 -8.31 0.1 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
KYMR 112.4 49.2 113.05 -0.6 4.67 -2.62 97.12 20 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
IBBQ 34.62 49.6 34.68 -0.2 0.73 -0.89 35.55 11.4 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
IBB 206.49 50.7 206.46 0 0.58 0.49 35.8 13.5 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
BEAM 25.7 51.5 24.63 4.3 4.9 2.07 -7.79 -9.6 2026-10-09 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
PTGX 143.73 52.6 141.81 1.4 2.62 -0.94 114.39 27.7 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
LLY 1179.27 54.2 1161.32 1.5 3.19 4.9 37.87 9.5 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
TMO 658.02 54.4 659.76 -0.3 0.49 8.64 23.07 20.8 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
AMGN 414.87 54.8 402.18 3.2 2.94 6.03 40.43 13.2 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
DHR 219.81 55.1 217.27 1.2 2.69 7.3 7.5 9.1 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
EDIT 2.9 55.6 2.7 7.2 10.69 4.69 -28.92 9.5 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
BIIB 225.71 56.5 222.36 1.5 2.65 7.11 50.87 14.9 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
NTLA 13.07 58.1 12.13 7.7 6.61 7.04 -48.66 1 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend
RXRX 4.36 58.3 3.93 10.9 5.83 35.4 -26.23 22 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched
GILD 151.17 59 148.77 1.6 4.44 3.79 29.49 10.1 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
A 170.54 62.2 165.46 3.1 1.65 17.82 21.72 27.6 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
ILMN 278.17 62.9 258.19 7.7 1.88 35.69 188.41 67.3 2026-10-09 🟢 Healthy trend
DNA 13 63 10.35 25.7 5.26 91.46 -14.7 54.2 2026-10-09 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched
ISRGE 423.96 66.7 400.65 5.8 8.17 20.02 -4.46 -4.4 2026-10-09 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken
GRAL 140.58 67.8 115.73 21.5 -1.87 81.44 97.64 87.8 2026-10-09 🟠 Stretched above 20-day
ABBV 276.47 71.2 265.31 4.2 5.19 10.19 19.84 18.8 2026-10-09 🟠 Extended
MRNA 225 72.1 183.05 22.9 18.41 65.92 717.29 209.8 2026-10-09 🟠 Extended

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

$IMVT, $BMRN, $NKTR

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $IMVT, $BMRN; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $NKTR.

Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)

$INCY, $NVO, $COGT

Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) $INCY; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $COGT; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $NVO.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)

Entry Zones

Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries.

Stock Zone ($) Conditions
INCY 104.6 (shelf) to 120.69 (20-day) Oversold. Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it
REGN 733.33 (shelf) to 766.46 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it
DXCM Up to 86.53 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (73.51) is the floor
VRTX 484.7 (shelf) to 513.81 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, a close under the shelf voids it
XBI Up to 155.38 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (139.57) is the floor
IQV Up to 266.2 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (206.79) is the floor
KYMR Up to 113.05 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (93.69) is the floor
IBBQ Up to 34.68 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (31.08) is the floor
TMO Up to 659.76 (20-day) Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (544.94) is the floor
IMVT None below the 200-day (31.86) Long trend under test; a close back above the 200-day is the condition before any entry
BMRN None below the 200-day (58.69) Long trend under test; a close back above the 200-day is the condition before any entry
COGT None below the 200-day (36.15) Long trend under test; a close back above the 200-day is the condition before any entry
RXRX Wait for a pullback toward 3.93 (20-day) Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day
DNA Wait for a pullback toward 10.35 (20-day) Stretched on a negative year (a repair, not an intact trend); wait for a rest toward the 20-day that holds above the 200-day
GRAL Wait for a pullback toward 115.73 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
ABBV Wait for a pullback toward 265.31 (20-day) RSI extended while price sits close to the 20-day; wait for RSI to cool before treating the 20-day as an entry
MRNA Wait for a pullback toward 183.05 (20-day) Stretched; no entry while extended above the 20-day
NKTR No entry zone Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup
NVO No entry zone Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
REGN 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
DXCM 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
VRTX 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
XBI 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
IQV 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
KYMR 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
IBBQ 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
TMO 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day 📈 Accumulate Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim
IBB 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
PTGX 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
LLY 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
AMGN 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
DHR 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
BIIB 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
GILD 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
A 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
ILMN 🟢 Healthy trend 🔒 Hold Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year
IMVT 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
BMRN 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
INCY 🟡 Pullback, trend intact 🔍 Watch Oversold pullback inside an intact trend; needs a floor and a 20-day reclaim
COGT 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
CRSP 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend
MDT 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend
EDIT 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend
NTLA 🟡 Mixed long trend 🔍 Watch Above the 200-day on a negative year: a repair, not yet an intact trend
RXRX 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched ⚠️ Don't chase More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest
DNA 🟡 Mixed long trend, stretched ⚠️ Don't chase More than 10% above its 20-day with only one long test passed; wait for a rest
GRAL 🟠 Stretched above 20-day ⚠️ Don't chase More than 10% above its 20-day; wait for a rest
ABBV 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
MRNA 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase RSI 70 or higher; wait for a rest toward the 20-day
NKTR 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
NVO 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
IONS 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
SRPT 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
RARE 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
LEGN 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
ALNY 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
BNTX 🔴 Long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
BEAM 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed
ISRGE 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken ❌ Avoid Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed

What To Watch Next

  • $IMVT: the line is its 200-day average, which stood at $31.86 on October 9; a close back above that average restores the intact trend, and staying under it means the strong year is being given back. The nearest support shelf sits at $27.69.
  • $MRNA at a 52-week high and RSI 72.1, 22.9% above its 20-day: the first close below its 20-day would be the first crack in the run; a driver for Friday's 14.21% is still not on file.
  • $GRAL and $ILMN: whether the cooling stops at the 20-day ($115.73 and $258.19) or the genomics leg unwinds further.
  • $INCY (RSI 31.4, 5.2% above its 200-day): the one oversold name in an intact trend; the 200-day ($107.21) and the shelf ($104.60) are the floor. Incyte is scheduled to report on October 29 (date estimated).
  • $BMRN on its shelf at $54.24: a break below it with RSI under 25 extends a trend already under test. BioMarin is scheduled to report on October 26.
  • Funds: $XBI regaining its 20-day ($155.38) would confirm the Friday bid as a turn rather than a one-day pop.

Sources

  • Tape data: pre-computed desk summary for the biotech universe, as of the 2026-10-09 settled close (biotech-scan).
  • News receipts checked: latest (fetched 2026-09-30), DNA (2026-10-06), RXRX (2026-10-05; StocksToTrade, Tempus AI deal extended), GRAL (2026-10-06; GRAIL investor news releases), IMVT (2026-10-03; Immunovant, IMVT-1402 cutaneous lupus topline), NKTR (2026-10-03), BMRN (2026-10-03), ILMN (2026-10-08). None covers an October 9 move.
  • Market briefs: 2026-10-05-market-brief (Ginkgo's October 5 gain, Recursion's Tempus receipt), 2026-10-06-market-brief (genomics unwind, cause unknown), 2026-10-07-market-brief (Moderna +4.81%, cause unknown).
  • Event calendar: research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-03 to 2026-10-09 (no entries for these names); 2026-10-26-bmrn-earnings.md (scheduled), 2026-10-29-incy-earnings.md (estimated). No October 9 captures are on file.
  • Prior scan: 2026-10-02-biotech-scan (structure, universe, and its October 2 readings cited as history).
10 events