The defense primes have joined the drone small caps in the washout: Raytheon (RSI 23.9) and Northrop (24.9) are in capitulation territory, Lockheed (30.8) and the aerospace-and-defense ETF ITA (26.4) are right behind, and RTX has slipped back under its 200-day (-5.2%) with trailing-year alpha now negative (-4.17). Only two names, Unusual Machines and Motorola Solutions, sit above their 200-day, and four names carry positive trailing-year alpha, down from five. Planet Labs rose 8.43% on the day with no confirmed cause (a MarketBeat alert of October 2 reported the jump without naming a catalyst), but the desk still rates its thesis broken.

Numbers are the settled October 2 close for all 23 names (Friday), one week after the September 25 scan. The list is now 23 names: Tessera (HLSQ) was re-added after the September 23 scan, and DRNZ, JEDI and SHLD were added September 30. AEVEX (AVEX) and DRNZ carry no 200-day or trailing-year comparison; the composition of the three newest tickers was not checked in this pass. Comparison baseline is the September 25 scan.

The primes are now the weak spot. A week ago the desk could point to RTX as the one low-RSI name that still passed the horizon check; today RTX is at RSI 23.9, 5.2% under its 200-day, with trailing-year alpha -4.17 and a -8.02% month. Northrop (RSI 24.9, -8.75% on the month, alpha -36) is the weakest prime on the long windows; Lockheed (RSI 30.8) and ITA (RSI 26.4, -6.97% on the month) confirm it is sector-wide rather than one name. None of the four has a dated cause in the corpus, and the October 20 prime cluster of reports is the next scheduled test.

The small caps remain structurally damaged. AeroVironment is 30% under its 200-day, a trailing-year change of -60.91% with alpha -75.92 and -66.3% from its high; Kratos (-54.68% year) and Red Cat (-44.44% year, -23.08% 30-day) look the same. Axon's 30-day change is -18.47% and it is 16.8% under its 200-day; its last news pull (September 22) predates the move, so news was not pulled for it; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures were checked, and the move is cause unknown.

Teledyne is back at the line it keeps failing: -1% versus its 200-day, RSI 51.4, the highest in the book, with alpha still negative at -8.99. It was the first-reclaim-that-failed story last scan; it is a fresh test today, not a confirmed cross. Unusual Machines is the one clean name: 19.9% above its 200-day, alpha 34.43, although it has a 7-day change of -6.99%, a pullback inside an intact trend.

Two names need the quality caveat. Tessera Defense and Homeland Security (HLSQ, formerly BiomX) is a biotech-to-defense pivot micro-cap that completed a 1:10 reverse split on September 9 per the symbol registry; its summary shows RSI 20.8, -32.08% on the week and a trailing year that is not reliable after a ticker change and reverse split. The business-quality veto applies. Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) is an OTC line of a Canadian primary: research-only, no entry zone. Planet Labs rose 8.43% with RSI 46.6 but remains rated broken by the desk and 36% under its 200-day; its news pull of October 1 shows only quote pages.

• Names above their 200-day: two (UMAC, MSI), the same two as the September 25 scan. Teledyne is back at the line (-1%) but still under it.
• Positive trailing-year alpha: four (UMAC, ESLT, LASR, PL) versus five on September 25; RTX dropped out (alpha -4.17).
• Capitulation (RSI below 25) is no longer empty: RTX (23.9), Tessera (20.8) and Northrop (24.9, just under 25) are in it; on September 25 the lowest RSI was 29.1 (RTX) and the tier was empty.
• Universe: 23 names versus 19 on September 25 (adds HLSQ, DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD).
• Friday closed 14 green, 9 red; Planet Labs (8.43%) was the best name and Tessera (-5.26%), Draganfly (-3.82%) and Kraken (-3.32%) the weakest.

The long windows are the verdict here. Twenty of 23 names sit below their 200-day and 17 of the 21 with trailing-year data have negative alpha, so a low RSI is damage, not discount, for most of this book. The exceptions with positive long-run numbers (Elbit 37.05% year, nLIGHT 30.48%) are trends under test: both are below their 200-day (-10% and -29.8%).

The primes (RTX, LMT, NOC) and ITA have a modest or flat trailing year (10.83%, 1.21%, -20.99%, -0.76%), so unlike the small caps they are not broken multi-year trends; they are at their first real test. RTX is the closest to a flag: 5.2% under the line, RSI 23.9.

Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no insider dollars, no contract data. Tessera and the three newest tickers are new to the board, so there is no week-over-week reading for them. Foreign and OTC names (KRKNF) are research-only.

Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 2 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.

Capitulation (RSI below 25): Tessera (20.8), RTX (23.9), Northrop (24.9). Tessera is a quality veto; RTX and Northrop are prime contractors with flat-to-modest trailing years, so this is a real test of an old trend, not a collapse.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 12 names: ITA (26.4), Kraken (28.5), SHLD (30.4), Lockheed (30.8), Kratos (31.1), Axon (31.3), Red Cat (32.2), AEVEX (36.2), ESLT (36.8), AeroVironment (37.9), DRNZ (38.9), MSI (39.3). Most carry negative alpha.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 8 names: Teledyne (51.4), Draganfly (47.5), Planet Labs (46.6), Amprius (46.8), Unusual Machines (45), LASR (43.8), JEDI (43.6), Ondas (42.5).

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-02 close — drone-defense.
• Cause checks: news receipts under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json(all fetched on or before 2026-10-01), stock-event files inresearch/stock-events/` (2026-10-01-nke-earnings, 2026-10-01-vylr-spinoff), capture articles in articles.
• Tradability: _securities.
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-25-drone-defense.