Drone & Defense Scan
Drone & Defense Scan
Twelve of the 19 names in this book gained RSI over the three trading sessions since the last scan, and Teledyne posted the single largest gain the desk has recorded here — up 13.9 RSI points and crossing back above its 200-day average for the first time in this book's recent record. But today itself was soft: six names closed green, eleven red, and AeroVironment gave back the bounce that made it last scan's leader. The horizon check barely moved: 13 of 18 names with trailing-year data still carry negative alpha, unchanged from the last two scans, and the same five names — Elbit Systems, Unusual Machines, Planet Labs, nLIGHT, RTX — remain the only ones positive on it.
Numbers are the settled September 23 close for all 19 names, three trading sessions after the September 18 scan. AVEX still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). No market-wide brief for today's session exists in the corpus as of this scan. Comparison baseline is the September 18 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 12 of 19 names gained RSI since the last scan, led by Teledyne's 13.9-point jump, but today closed 6 green / 11 red / 2 flat |
| Leaders | Teledyne (RSI 52.1, +13.9 points, reclaimed its 200-day), Elbit Systems (50.7), Unusual Machines (46.0) |
| Laggards | ITA (RSI 29.5, the aerospace-and-defense fund's lowest reading), RTX (31.0), Red Cat (31.3, still deteriorating) |
| The horizon check | 13 of 18 names with trailing-year data carry negative alpha, unchanged for the third straight scan; only Elbit Systems, Unusual Machines, Planet Labs, nLIGHT, and RTX pass |
| Caveat | Unusual Machines fell 5.58% today with no dated cause on file despite being one of only three names above its 200-day |
What's Going On
Teledyne is the real mover in this book. Its RSI jumped from 38.2 to 52.1 — the largest gain here — and it crossed back above its 200-day average by a fraction of a percent, joining Unusual Machines and Motorola Solutions as the only names above that line. A September 22 MarketBeat item flagged the stock for a decline on valuation concerns the same day the tape shows it green and up sharply on the week, so that specific item does not reconcile with the price action and is not treated as an explanation here; no other dated cause is on file for the move.
AeroVironment cooled off after leading the last scan. It gained 9.02% into that scan and has since gone essentially flat — down 0.33% over the trailing week — while its RSI slipped from 53.7 to 49.8. The stock remains 24 percentage points below its 200-day with a trailing-year alpha of -63.55, worse than the -58.58 in the last scan. The bounce did not repair the chart.
Unusual Machines is the day's odd fact: it fell 5.58% today, the largest single-day decline in the book, despite being one of only two names (with Motorola Solutions and now Teledyne, three total) sitting above its 200-day with strongly positive alpha (+46.3). Its news pull completed September 22 and returns only stock-quote aggregator pages with no dated driver for today's move — a real decline with no confirmed cause.
Red Cat has not stabilized. Its RSI ticked from 31.1 to 31.3, essentially unchanged, while the week continued lower at -7.18% and the month at -26.2%. Nothing on file explains the continued slide; the news pull returns only archive and filing-aggregator content with no item dated to this week.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- TDY: RSI 38.2 → 52.1 (+13.9), the largest gain in the book, and its 200-day position flipped from -0.1% (fractionally below, described as "basing" last scan) to +0.1% (above) — a reclaim.
- KLIC-adjacent gains carried through the book broadly: AVEX (+2.9), LASR (+3.3), ITA (+3.4), AMPX (+3.4), PL (+2.7), MSI (+2.2), TDY (+13.9), AXON (+1.5), RCAT (+0.2), RTX (+0.3), KRKNF (+1.0), ONDS (+1.4) all gained.
- NOC: RSI 44.4 → 38.9 (-5.5), the largest decline; DPRO 56.9 → 51.1 (-5.8), an even larger decline in absolute terms; AVAV 53.7 → 49.8 (-3.9); LMT 42.4 → 39.4 (-3.0); ESLT 51.6 → 50.7 (-0.9); UMAC 47.5 → 46.0 (-1.5); KTOS 37.7 → 35.8 (-1.9).
- Above-200-day group grew from two names to three: Unusual Machines (+24.7%) and Motorola Solutions (+7.5%) held, and Teledyne (+0.1%) joined.
- The positive-alpha group is unchanged for a third consecutive scan: Elbit Systems (+33.01), Unusual Machines (+46.3), Planet Labs (+20.16), nLIGHT (+17.84), and RTX (+3.94) are still the only five.
- The negative-alpha count held at 13 of 18 — the pattern flagged two scans ago (RSI repair without alpha repair) has not broken.
How To Read The Board
The three-session drift and today's single session point in different directions, and the drift is the better evidence: 12 of 19 names gained RSI, and Teledyne's reclaim of its 200-day is the first structural improvement in this book in several scans. But today's 11-of-19 red session, on no confirmed news, is a reminder that this book still does not move with the broader tape's better days — it gave back part of the gain rather than confirming it.
The horizon check remains the more durable read and it has not moved. Thirteen of 18 names with trailing-year data are negative on alpha, the same count as the last two scans, and the same five names — Elbit Systems, Unusual Machines, Planet Labs, nLIGHT, RTX — are the only ones that pass. Motorola Solutions and now Teledyne both sit above their 200-day with negative alpha behind them — the pattern the desk has flagged before, a chart that looks fine while the trailing year does not.
Planet Labs is still the name where the horizon math and the desk's own broken rating disagree. It carries alpha of +20.16 and a positive trailing year, yet the desk rates its thesis broken and it sits well below its 200-day. Treat the positive alpha as history rather than reassurance, same as the last two scans.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY | $621.05 | 52.1 | $608.80 | +2.0% | +3.32% | -0.67% | basing (reclaimed 200-day this week; alpha -6.41) |
| DPRO | $5.36 | 51.1 | $5.47 | -2.0% | -1.29% | +24.07% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha -27.9) |
| ESLT | $742.49 | 50.7 | $723.61 | +2.6% | +0.59% | +1.66% | pullback (alpha +33.01) |
| AVAV | $155.94 | 49.8 | $151.17 | +3.2% | -0.33% | +5.22% | downtrend (bounce cooled; 24% below 200-day, alpha -63.55) |
| MSI | $460.44 | 47.0 | $470.46 | -2.1% | -0.02% | -4.38% | uptrend (above 200-day, alpha -17.96) |
| AMPX | $9.73 | 46.7 | $9.70 | +0.3% | +6.92% | -1.32% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha -32.54) |
| UMAC | $22.69 | 46.0 | $23.74 | -4.4% | +3.09% | -7.65% | pullback (-5.58% today, no cause on file; above 200-day, alpha +46.3) |
| AVEX | $16.44 | 45.7 | $16.68 | -1.4% | +1.67% | -8.67% | too-young (no 200-day/alpha comparison) |
| ONDS | $7.40 | 44.3 | $7.54 | -1.8% | +2.78% | -10.19% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha -21.86) |
| LASR | $40.98 | 42.0 | $40.64 | +0.8% | +6.28% | -7.1% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact; alpha +17.84) |
| LMT | $524.68 | 39.4 | $537.99 | -2.5% | -2.34% | -6.99% | basing (below 200-day, alpha -7.96) |
| NOCE | $514.42 | 38.9 | $527.21 | -2.4% | -3.08% | -6.35% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha -26.63) |
| AXON | $450.61 | 37.0 | $504.13 | -10.6% | -3.8% | -24.6% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha -57.82) |
| KTOS | $46.16 | 35.8 | $48.54 | -4.9% | -3.0% | -13.02% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha -60.75) |
| KRKNF | $3.29 | 33.0 | $3.55 | -7.4% | +0.3% | -21.29% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha -12.96) |
| PL | $16.38 | 32.5 | $17.90 | -8.5% | +2.25% | -24.06% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: broken; alpha +20.16) |
| RCAT | $6.59 | 31.3 | $7.94 | -17.0% | -7.18% | -26.2% | collapse (still deteriorating; below 200-day, alpha -59.78) |
| RTXE | $192.19 | 31.0 | $199.86 | -3.8% | -2.36% | -8.14% | basing (essentially at its 200-day, alpha +3.94) |
| ITA | $213.92 | 29.5 | $221.52 | -3.4% | -0.63% | -8.35% | pullback (lowest reading in book, alpha -12.01) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 9 names: ITA (29.5), RTX (31.0), RCAT (31.3), PL (32.5), KRKNF (33.0), KTOS (35.8), AXON (37.0), NOC (38.9), LMT (39.4). Only RTX (+3.94) and PL (+20.16) carry positive trailing-year alpha in this group; the rest are damage, not discount.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 10 names: TDY (52.1), DPRO (51.1), ESLT (50.7), AVAV (49.8), AMPX (46.7), UMAC (46.0), AVEX (45.7, too-young), ONDS (44.3), LASR (42.0), MSI (47.0). Of these, only ESLT, UMAC, and LASR carry positive alpha.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| RTXE | $192-200 (under its $199.86 20-day) | Essentially at its 200-day with positive alpha (+3.94), the lowest RSI among the positive-alpha names; next print scheduled October 20 |
| LASR | $39-41 | Rated intact with alpha +17.84, but still 29% below its 200-day |
| PL | not a zone despite the low RSI | Thesis rated broken; positive alpha is a trailing-year artifact, not current evidence |
| TDY | $604-621 (near its reclaimed 200-day) | Just crossed above; confirm the reclaim holds before treating it as a level rather than noise |
| RCAT, AXON, KTOS | not zones | Negative on the week, the month, the trailing year, and alpha; all below their 200-day |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESLT, UMAC | 🟢 Positive horizon | 🔒 Hold | The two cleanest names; UMAC's -5.58% today has no cause on file |
| TDY | 🟡 Just reclaimed | 🔍 Watch | Largest RSI gain in the book; confirm the 200-day reclaim on a second session |
| RTX, LASR | 🟡 Low RSI, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Pullback-shaped, not broken |
| MSI, LMT, NOC, ITA | 🟡 Flat chart, negative alpha | 🔍 Watch | Charts that look steady while trailing-year alpha stays negative |
| AVAV | 🟡 Bounce cooled | 🔍 Research | Gave back last scan's 9% advance; still 24% below its 200-day |
| RCAT | 🔴 Still deteriorating | ❌ Don't buy | RSI unchanged at breakdown level, month -26.2%, no cause on file |
| AXON, KTOS, KRKNF, AMPX, ONDS, DPRO | 🔴 Negative on every long window | ⚠️ Avoid | All below their 200-day with negative alpha |
| PL | 🔴 Rated broken | ❌ Don't buy | Desk thesis broken despite positive trailing-year alpha |
| AVEX | 🟡 Insufficient history | 🔍 Watch | Too-young regime |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Teledyne holds its reclaimed 200-day | The largest RSI gain in the book; a single MarketBeat item calling the move a decline does not match the tape |
| Unusual Machines' -5.58% today | No dated cause on file for one of only three names above its 200-day |
| Whether Red Cat's slide stabilizes | RSI unchanged at 31.3, month -26.2%, still nothing dated on file |
| The negative-alpha count (13 of 18) | Unchanged for a third straight scan; watch for the first name to cross either direction |
| The October 20 prime cluster (Lockheed, Northrop, RTX) | The first dated catalysts in this book since the last scan |
| Whether AeroVironment's chart repairs alongside its alpha | RSI eased back to 49.8 while alpha worsened to -63.55; the bounce did not translate |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Teledyne reclaimed its 200-day with the book's largest RSI gain | The first structural improvement in several scans, though a same-day news item calling it a decline does not match the tape |
| The negative-alpha count held at 13 of 18 for a third scan | RSI repair across the book is not translating into trailing-year repair |
| Unusual Machines fell 5.58% with no cause on file | Even the book's cleanest long-horizon name is not immune to an unexplained single-day move |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Citing a "why did it go down" aggregator item without checking it against the tape | Teledyne's Sept 22 item says the stock declined on valuation concerns; the tape shows it up sharply the same week |
| Treating a bounce as chart repair | AeroVironment's 9% advance into the last scan reversed into a flat week while its alpha kept worsening |
Open Questions
- Does Teledyne's 200-day reclaim hold on a non-rally session, or was this a brief crossing?
- What drove Unusual Machines' -5.58% today, with no dated cause on file?
- Can the negative-alpha count fall below 13 of 18 before the October 20 prime cluster reports?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — drone-defense.
- Teledyne news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22; item does not match the tape's direction): latest.
- Unusual Machines news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22, quote-aggregator content only): latest.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-18-drone-defense.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.