Drone & Defense Scan
Drone & Defense Scan
Teledyne's reclaim of its 200-day average did not hold: the largest RSI gain of the last scan reversed into the largest RSI decline of this one, and its position relative to the 200-day slipped back to -1.1% from +0.1%. Planet Labs is the opposite story, gaining 9.4 RSI points — the most in the book — while AeroVironment fell 4.1% today with no dated cause on file. The negative-alpha count held at 13 of 18 for a fourth straight scan; the same five names remain the only ones passing.
Numbers are the settled September 25 close for all 19 names, two trading sessions after the September 23 scan. AVEX still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the September 23 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 12 of 19 names lost RSI ground since the last scan, a reversal from the prior scan's broad gain; today closed 9 green, 10 red |
| Leaders | Unusual Machines (RSI 50.4, the cleanest name in the book), Teledyne (47.6, but losing ground), Elbit Systems (47.0) |
| Laggards | Red Cat (RSI 33.6), Axon (33.7), Kratos (35.8) |
| The horizon check | 13 of 18 names with trailing-year data still carry negative alpha, unchanged for a fourth straight scan; Elbit Systems, Unusual Machines, Planet Labs, nLIGHT, and RTX remain the only five that pass |
| Caveat | AeroVironment's -4.1% today and Teledyne's lost 200-day reclaim both have no dated cause on file |
What's Going On
Teledyne's reclaim did not survive. Two scans ago its RSI jumped 13.9 points and it crossed 0.1% above its 200-day average — the first structural improvement the desk had flagged in this book in weeks. This scan its RSI fell 4.5 points to 47.6, the largest decline in the book, and its position relative to the 200-day slipped back to -1.1%, a full reversal. Its news receipt (pulled September 25, the freshest in the book) returns only generic aggregator pages — nothing explains the reversal.
Planet Labs moved the other direction, gaining 9.4 RSI points to 41.9, the largest gain here. It remains rated broken by the desk's own thesis despite carrying positive trailing-year alpha of +28.52 — the same disagreement flagged in prior scans, where a positive long-run number sits on top of a name the desk does not treat as investable.
AeroVironment fell 4.1% today, the largest single-day decline in the book, continuing the pattern flagged last scan: its bounce into the September 23 scan never repaired the underlying chart, and it remains 25.4% below its 200-day with trailing-year alpha of -66.83, worse than the -63.55 recorded last scan. Its news receipt (pulled September 24) carries nothing dated to today.
Unusual Machines and Motorola Solutions remain the only two names above their 200-day average now that Teledyne has fallen back below it. Unusual Machines gained 4.4 RSI points to 50.4 and is the cleanest name in the book on every measure the desk checks — above its average, positive on trailing-year alpha (+66.23), and the top RSI reading today.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- 6 of 19 names gained RSI since the September 23 close: ITA (+1.6), ONDS (+4.5), RCAT (+2.3), AMPX (+0.4), UMAC (+4.4), and PL (+9.4, the largest gain). Kratos (KTOS) was flat.
- 12 of 19 declined: TDY (-4.5, the largest decline), ESLT (-3.7), AVAV (-3.6), AXON (-3.3), LMT (-2.3), MSI (-2.2), AVEX (-2.1), RTX (-1.9), NOC (-1.3), LASR (-1.5), KRKNF (-1.0), DPRO (-0.6).
- TDY: 200-day position flipped from +0.1% (reclaimed two scans ago) back to -1.1% — the reclaim did not hold. The above-200-day group narrowed to two names (UMAC, MSI), from three.
- The positive-alpha group is unchanged for a fourth consecutive scan: Elbit Systems (+32.37), Unusual Machines (+66.23), Planet Labs (+28.52), nLIGHT (LASR, +26.61), and RTX (+0.78, still barely positive) are still the only five.
- The negative-alpha count held at 13 of 18 with data — unchanged for a fourth straight scan.
How To Read The Board
Today's session was close to even — 9 green, 10 red — but the two-session drift since the last scan leans negative: 12 of 19 names lost RSI ground, a reversal from the prior scan's 12-of-19 gain. Teledyne's reversal is the structural fact that matters most: the one name that had shown real improvement two scans running gave it all back within two sessions, which argues for treating any single-scan reclaim in this book as unconfirmed until it survives a second one.
The horizon check remains unmoved and is the more durable read. Thirteen of 18 names with trailing-year data are negative on alpha, the same count as the last three scans, and the same five names — Elbit Systems, Unusual Machines, Planet Labs, nLIGHT, RTX — are the only ones that pass. Motorola Solutions is the one name still above its 200-day with negative alpha behind it, the same "chart looks fine, trailing year does not" pattern the desk has flagged since Teledyne first crossed.
Planet Labs continues to be the name where the horizon math and the desk's own rating disagree: positive alpha, a real RSI gain this scan, but still rated broken and still well below its 200-day. Treat the positive alpha as a trailing-year artifact, not a signal to buy the RSI gain.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMAC | $24.05 | 50.4 | $23.63 | +1.8% | +3.75% | +0.67% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +66.23) |
| DPRO | $5.35 | 50.5 | $5.58 | -4.1% | -4.8% | +22.99% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha -29.37) |
| TDY | $614.15 | 47.6 | $607.11 | +1.2% | +1.77% | -3.06% | basing (lost its 200-day reclaim this scan; alpha -8.71) |
| ESLT | $735.00 | 47.0 | $725.29 | +1.3% | -1.12% | +1.73% | pullback (below 200-day; alpha +32.37) |
| ONDS | $7.64 | 48.8 | $7.45 | +2.5% | +3.38% | -7.06% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha -18.64) |
| AVAV | $152.05 | 46.2 | $151.74 | +0.2% | -4.94% | +3.52% | downtrend (25.4% below 200-day; alpha -66.83) |
| MSI | $456.88 | 44.8 | $467.35 | -2.2% | -0.39% | -6.24% | uptrend (above 200-day; alpha -16.97) |
| AVEX | $16.07 | 43.6 | $16.46 | -2.4% | -0.8% | -12.38% | too-young (no 200-day/alpha comparison) |
| PL | $17.43 | 41.9 | $17.54 | -0.6% | +6.15% | -17.63% | collapse (thesis: broken; alpha +28.52) |
| AMPX | $9.75 | 47.1 | $9.64 | +1.2% | +2.63% | -4.41% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha -29.14) |
| LASR | $40.33 | 40.5 | $40.26 | +0.2% | +1.23% | -7.71% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact; alpha +26.61) |
| LMT | $519.56 | 37.1 | $533.58 | -2.6% | -2.59% | -8.14% | basing (below 200-day; alpha -9.95) |
| NOCE | $510.52 | 37.6 | $523.43 | -2.5% | -3.2% | -7.17% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha -30.06) |
| AXON | $430.11 | 33.7 | $486.95 | -11.7% | -3.94% | -29.2% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha -56.82) |
| KTOS | $45.62 | 35.8 | $47.85 | -4.7% | -3.88% | -13.81% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha -63.04) |
| KRKNF | $3.23 | 32.0 | $3.47 | -6.9% | -1.22% | -22.91% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha -18.74) |
| RCAT | $6.66 | 33.6 | $7.70 | -13.6% | -1.33% | -25.42% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha -51.73) |
| RTXE | $189.40 | 29.1 | $197.56 | -4.1% | -2.37% | -10.66% | down (essentially at its 200-day; alpha +0.78) |
| ITA | $213.81 | 31.1 | $219.31 | -2.5% | -0.01% | -9.55% | pullback (below 200-day; alpha -11.95) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 9 names: RTX (29.1), ITA (31.1), KRKNF (32.0), RCAT (33.6), AXON (33.7), KTOS (35.8), NOC (37.6), LMT (37.1), LASR (40.5). Only RTX (+0.78) and LASR (+26.61) carry positive trailing-year alpha in this group; the rest are damage, not discount.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 10 names: UMAC (50.4), DPRO (50.5), TDY (47.6), ESLT (47.0), ONDS (48.8), AVAV (46.2), MSI (44.8), AVEX (43.6, too-young), PL (41.9), AMPX (47.1). Of these, only UMAC and ESLT carry positive alpha.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| RTXE | $189-198 (near its 200-day) | Essentially at its 200-day with positive alpha (+0.78), the lowest RSI among the positive-alpha names |
| LASR | $39-41 | Rated intact with alpha +26.61, but still 30% below its 200-day |
| ESLT | $723-739 | Below its 200-day by 4.4% with alpha +32.37, one of only two positive-alpha names still under the line |
| PL | not a zone despite the RSI gain | Thesis rated broken; positive alpha is a trailing-year artifact, not current evidence |
| TDY | not a zone | Lost this scan's 200-day reclaim; wait for a second confirmed cross, not a first one |
| RCAT, AXON, KTOS | not zones | Negative on the week, the month, the trailing year, and alpha; all below their 200-day |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMAC | 🟢 The cleanest name | 🔒 Hold | Above its 200-day, positive alpha, top RSI gain in the book |
| ESLT, LASR, RTX | 🟡 Low RSI, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Pullback-shaped, not broken |
| TDY | 🔴 Lost its reclaim | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | Largest RSI decline this scan after the largest gain last scan |
| MSI | 🟡 Flat chart, negative alpha | 🔍 Watch | Chart that looks steady while trailing-year alpha stays negative |
| AVAV | 🔴 Still deteriorating | ⚠️ Avoid | -4.1% today, worst single-day move in the book, no cause on file |
| PL | 🔴 Rated broken | ❌ Don't buy | Desk thesis broken despite positive trailing-year alpha and this scan's RSI gain |
| AXON, KTOS, KRKNF, AMPX, ONDS, DPRO, NOC, LMT, ITA | 🔴 Negative on every long window | ⚠️ Avoid | All below their 200-day with negative alpha |
| AVEX | 🟡 Insufficient history | 🔍 Watch | Too-young regime |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Teledyne attempts a second reclaim | Lost the September 23 crossing within two sessions; a first reclaim in this book has now failed to hold twice on record |
| AeroVironment's -4.1% today | No dated cause on file; alpha keeps worsening (-66.83 from -63.55) even as the chart occasionally bounces |
| The negative-alpha count (13 of 18) | Unchanged for a fourth straight scan; watch for the first name to cross either direction |
| Whether Planet Labs' RSI gain is a real turn or noise | Still rated broken by the desk despite the gain and the positive alpha |
| The October 20 prime cluster (Lockheed, Northrop, RTX) | The next dated catalysts in this book |
| Whether Unusual Machines and Motorola Solutions stay the only above-200-day names | Both held through this scan while Teledyne fell back below |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Teledyne's 200-day reclaim reversed within two sessions | The largest RSI gain in the book two scans ago became the largest decline this scan — a first reclaim in this book has not yet held |
| The negative-alpha count held at 13 of 18 for a fourth scan | The book's long-horizon damage is structurally unchanged regardless of week-to-week RSI swings |
| AeroVironment's alpha kept worsening despite occasional bounces | -66.83 now versus -63.55 last scan and -58.58 two scans ago — the trend is deteriorating, not stabilizing |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating a single-scan 200-day reclaim as durable | Teledyne's crossing two scans ago reversed completely within two sessions |
| Reading Planet Labs' RSI gain as a reversal signal | The desk's own thesis remains rated broken; a technical gain does not override that |
Open Questions
- Does Teledyne attempt a second reclaim, and if so, does it hold longer than the first?
- What is driving AeroVironment's continued single-day declines, with no dated cause found in three consecutive scans?
- Can the negative-alpha count fall below 13 of 18 before the October 20 prime cluster reports?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — drone-defense.
- Teledyne news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-25, aggregator quote pages only): latest.
- AeroVironment news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-24, nothing dated to today): latest.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-drone-defense.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.