Drone & Defense Scan
Drone & Defense Scan
The defense primes and Elbit bounced hard in a week that crushed AI hardware, while the drone small caps kept breaking. Lockheed (+8.34%), Northrop (+8.14%), Elbit (+15.2%) and RTX (+4.27%) all rose, their RSI moved from the 30s into the 50s and 60s, and RTX is now 0.6% under its 200-day with trailing-year alpha turned positive. Behind them, Unusual Machines fell 21.7% and lost its 200-day, Red Cat (RSI 20.7), the REX Drone ETF (21.6) and Tessera (20.8) are in capitulation, and 21 of 22 names with a 200-day sit under it.
Numbers are the settled October 16 close for all 23 names (Friday); 7D is the five sessions since the October 9 close. The list is unchanged. AEVEX (AVEX) has no 200-day or trailing-year comparison and the REX Drone ETF (DRNZ) has a 200-day but no trailing year. Comparison baseline is the October 9 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A split book: 9 of 23 up on the week (from 6) and 9 of 23 up on Friday (from 10); 14 of 23 under their 20-day (from 21); 21 of 22 names with a 200-day under it (from 20); 18 of 21 with negative trailing-year alpha (unchanged) |
| Leaders | Elbit (RSI 62.8, +15.2% week), Lockheed (64.7, +8.34%), Northrop (58.9, +8.14%), Motorola Solutions (57.8, above its 200-day), RTX (56.2, +4.27%) |
| Laggards | Red Cat (RSI 20.7, -18.2% week), Tessera (20.8, quality veto), REX Drone ETF DRNZ (21.6), Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF JEDI (25.6), nLIGHT (27), Unusual Machines (28.1, -21.7% week) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: Motorola Solutions (+6.5%) only; Unusual Machines fell under it (-14.6%, from +9.9%). Positive alpha: Elbit (38.12), RTX (7.94), Unusual Machines (12.39). Primes: RTX +23.48% year, Lockheed +11.93% (alpha -3.6), Northrop -13.21% (alpha -28.74) |
| Caveat | No defense-specific cause is on file for the primes' bounce or the small-cap slide. News pulls for RTX and Northrop date from October 3, Lockheed's and Elbit's from October 14 and 15, and most small caps' from October 15 or earlier, before Friday's session; no event for this list is dated October 16. The only captured items naming a prime are an October 16 CNBC piece on Norway's wealth fund possibly easing its defense exclusions (Lockheed is named) and an October 16 X post on PAC-3 interceptor output; neither is tied to a price move. Backdrop, not cause: Bloomberg called it the S&P 500's worst week since June on AI fears, and Brent touched $110 on Friday as Hormuz attacks escalated (Bloomberg, CNBC, October 16). Friday's moves (RTX +3.73%, Northrop +4.05%, Unusual Machines -8.52%) are cause not checked |
What's Going On
The primes and Elbit rose together while nearly everything around them fell. Lockheed closed at 552.09 (RSI 64.7, +3.65% Friday), 6.9% over its 20-day and 2.2% under its 200-day (564.63). Northrop closed at 519.86 (RSI 58.9, +4.05% Friday), still 12.5% under its line (594.03) on a -13.21% year with alpha -28.74. RTX closed at 193.92 (RSI 56.2, +3.73% Friday on 1.82 times normal volume), 0.6% under its 200-day (195.04) on a +23.48% year with alpha 7.94, the only prime that passes the long-horizon check. The aerospace-and-defense fund ITA rose 1.17% on the week with 2.05 times volume Friday, and is 9.1% under its line. The one dated item for the group is an October 12 aggregator summary that Lockheed raised its dividend to $3.60 a share and signed a Pentagon framework agreement to ramp AIM-260 missile production (Simply Wall St); no source ties it to the move.
Elbit is the best week in the book and the cleanest long-window name. It rose 15.2% to 755.43 (RSI 62.8, from 29.1 a week ago), narrowing its gap to the 200-day (780.18) from -15.6% to -3.2%, on a +53.65% year with alpha 38.12. It sits in a 9.4-week base with an 800.43 pivot. Its second-quarter results were August 11, so no new print explains the week; cause not checked.
The small caps broke further. Unusual Machines, the one small cap that passed last week, fell 21.7% (-8.52% Friday) and went from 9.9% above its 200-day to 14.6% under (19.1); its year (+27.92%, alpha 12.39) keeps it a trend under test. Red Cat fell 18.2% to RSI 20.7, 56.4% under its line on a -63.3% year. Planet Labs (-21.07%, thesis broken), Amprius (-18.33%), Draganfly (-15.91%), nLIGHT (-12.5%, 41.8% under its line) and AeroVironment (-11.17%, -67.44% year) all lost more than a tenth. The October 12 market brief had already noted that no funded award moved the group. Kratos filed a Form 424B3 prospectus on October 14; its contents were not reviewed and it is not cited as a cause.
Two names need the quality caveat. Tessera (HLSQ) closed at $0.22, -68.97% on the month and 99.81% from its high, with RSI 20.8: the business-quality veto applies to this micro-cap pivot, and no chart reading changes that. Kraken Robotics' OTC line (KRKNF) fell 8.25% on the week after rising 8.25% the week before; it is research-only and stays out of the entry and action tables.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 9 of 23 up on the week (AVEX, ESLT, LMT, RTX, NOC, ITA, TDY, MSI, SHLD), versus 6. Friday was 9 green, versus 10.
- Out of oversold: Lockheed (39.8 to 64.7), Northrop (34.7 to 58.9), RTX (37.3 to 56.2), Elbit (29.1 to 62.8). The 200-day gaps narrowed: RTX -4.6% to -0.6%, Lockheed -9.6% to -2.2%, Northrop -19.4% to -12.5%, Elbit -15.6% to -3.2%.
- Capitulation (RSI below 25): three (Red Cat, Tessera, DRNZ), versus one (Tessera).
- Above the 200-day: one (Motorola Solutions), versus two; Unusual Machines dropped out.
- Positive alpha: Elbit, RTX and Unusual Machines (three); nLIGHT dropped out (-9.32) and RTX joined.
- Under the 20-day: 14 of 23, versus 21.
How To Read The Board
The short layer repaired for the primes and broke for the small caps; the long layer is still the verdict. Only RTX and Elbit pass the long-horizon check among names near their lines. Lockheed and Northrop bounced on RSI but remain flat-to-negative on the year, and ITA is +1.37% on the year with alpha -14.16: old trends at a test, not repairs. The small caps are broken trends, not pullbacks: AeroVironment (-67.44% year), Red Cat (-63.3%), Draganfly (-62.17%), Kratos (-54.39%), Axon (-40.16%) and Amprius (-39.67%) all carry deeply negative alpha. A low RSI there is damage, not discount.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages; no contract awards, no insider dollars, no budget data. The thematic funds (DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD) are normal equity funds identified by name; their holdings were not checked. Every name here trades on a US exchange except KRKNF (OTCQB, no symbol-registry row), which is research-only.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 16 close; the Signal column is a read of the tape.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 2026-10-16 | 552.09 | 64.7 | 516.62 | 6.9 | 8.34 | 2.76 | 11.93 | -2.2 | 🟡 bounce; just under 200-day; negative alpha |
| ESLT | 2026-10-16 | 755.43 | 62.8 | 705.23 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 2.34 | 53.65 | -3.2 | 🟢 best week in the book; positive alpha; under 200-day |
| NOCE | 2026-10-16 | 519.86 | 58.9 | 495.19 | 5 | 8.14 | -2.06 | -13.21 | -12.5 | 🟡 bounce; well under 200-day; negative alpha |
| MSI | 2026-10-16 | 463.15 | 57.8 | 452.39 | 2.4 | 4.27 | 0.57 | 5.93 | 6.5 | 🟡 only name above its 200-day; negative alpha |
| RTXE | 2026-10-16 | 193.92 | 56.2 | 187.03 | 3.7 | 4.27 | -1.48 | 23.48 | -0.6 | 🟢 closest prime to its 200-day; alpha turned positive |
| TDY | 2026-10-16 | 618.6 | 53.2 | 612.95 | 0.9 | 0.81 | 2.91 | 10.17 | -1.6 | 🟡 on its 200-day; negative alpha |
| SHLD | 2026-10-16 | 61.48 | 52.1 | 60.59 | 1.5 | 2.69 | -1.9 | -7.21 | -9.3 | 🟡 defense-tech fund; basing under 200-day |
| AVEX | 2026-10-16 | 15.36 | 49.3 | 15.12 | 1.6 | 4.99 | -5.01 | n/a | n/a | 🟡 too young: no 200-day; heavy Friday volume |
| ITA | 2026-10-16 | 209.07 | 43.7 | 208.64 | 0.2 | 1.17 | -2.88 | 1.37 | -9.1 | 🟡 aerospace-and-defense fund; under 200-day |
| KRKNF | 2026-10-16 | 2.89 | 37.6 | 3.13 | -7.7 | -8.25 | -11.89 | -31.84 | -43.2 | 🔴 OTC line; research-only; under 200-day |
| KTOS | 2026-10-16 | 40.42 | 34.2 | 43.22 | -6.5 | -4.58 | -15.07 | -54.39 | -39.8 | 🔴 collapse; under 200-day |
| AXON | 2026-10-16 | 390.29 | 32.1 | 422.99 | -7.7 | -7.71 | -16.68 | -40.16 | -20.1 | 🔴 collapse; under 200-day |
| PL | 2026-10-16 | 13.56 | 30.4 | 16.5 | -17.8 | -21.07 | -15.36 | 2.49 | -50.1 | 🔴 thesis broken; under 200-day |
| ONDS | 2026-10-16 | 6.04 | 29.6 | 7.1 | -15 | -10.25 | -16.11 | -26.34 | -35.4 | 🔴 downtrend; under 200-day |
| DPRO | 2026-10-16 | 3.7 | 28.8 | 4.98 | -25.7 | -15.91 | -31.86 | -62.17 | -37.6 | 🔴 downtrend; under 200-day |
| AVAV | 2026-10-16 | 121.79 | 28.6 | 140.9 | -13.6 | -11.17 | -22.15 | -67.44 | -37.7 | 🔴 collapse; alpha deeply negative |
| AMPX | 2026-10-16 | 7.71 | 28.4 | 9.27 | -16.9 | -18.33 | -15.27 | -39.67 | -42.7 | 🔴 collapse; under 200-day |
| UMAC | 2026-10-16 | 16.31 | 28.1 | 21.79 | -25.1 | -21.7 | -25.9 | 27.92 | -14.6 | 🔴 lost its 200-day; alpha still positive |
| LASR | 2026-10-16 | 33.67 | 27 | 38.97 | -13.6 | -12.5 | -12.68 | 6.21 | -41.8 | 🔴 under 200-day; alpha negative; thesis intact |
| JEDI | 2026-10-16 | 20.44 | 25.6 | 24.37 | -16.1 | -13.02 | -18.86 | -20.93 | -26.4 | 🔴 drone fund; downtrend |
| DRNZ | 2026-10-16 | 16.84 | 21.6 | 19.17 | -12.2 | -7.06 | -16.76 | n/a | -29.3 | 🔴 drone fund; capitulation |
| HLSQ | 2026-10-16 | 0.22 | 20.8 | 0.4 | -43.5 | -21.61 | -68.97 | -99.8 | -98.8 | 🔴 capitulation; quality veto |
| RCAT | 2026-10-16 | 4.72 | 20.7 | 6.08 | -22.3 | -18.2 | -33.52 | -63.3 | -56.4 | 🔴 capitulation; collapse |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): RCAT (20.7), HLSQ (20.8), DRNZ (21.6). Red Cat and the REX fund are damage on negative or missing alpha; Tessera is a quality veto.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 11 names: JEDI (25.6), LASR (27), UMAC (28.1), AMPX (28.4), AVAV (28.6), DPRO (28.8), ONDS (29.6), PL (30.4), Axon (32.1), Kratos (34.2), Kraken's OTC line (37.6). Only Unusual Machines carries positive alpha here.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 9 names: Lockheed (64.7), Elbit (62.8), Northrop (58.9), Motorola Solutions (57.8), RTX (56.2), Teledyne (53.2), SHLD (52.1), AEVEX (49.3), ITA (43.7).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| RTXE | A held close above its 200-day (195.04); the 211.31 base pivot above; 187.07 shelf below | +23.48% year, alpha 7.94; the closest prime to a reclaim; report scheduled October 20 |
| ESLT | A reclaim of its 200-day (780.18) or a breakout over the 800.43 pivot; 722.8 shelf below | +53.65% year, alpha 38.12; best long-window name; a bounce of 15.2% has not yet cleared the line |
| LMT | A held close above its 200-day (564.63); 612.75 pivot of a 12.2-week base | Flat year, alpha -3.6; report scheduled October 22 (provider estimate) |
| NOC, ITA | Held closes above the 200-days (594.03, 230.04) | Negative years and alpha; RSI repair alone is not structure; report scheduled October 20 |
| TDY, MSI | Teledyne: 200-day 628.51, 697.67 pivot of a 24-week base; Motorola: a hold of the 458.15 shelf | Negative alpha on both; Teledyne reports October 21 |
| UMAC | A reclaim of its 200-day (19.1); 14.75 shelf below | Alpha 12.39 on a +27.92% year; the line was lost this week |
| AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, AXON, PL, DPRO, ONDS, AMPX, LASR, DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD, AVEX, HLSQ | None | Negative alpha, thesis broken (Planet Labs), too young (AEVEX) or business-quality veto (Tessera); damage, not discount |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX, ESLT | 🟢 Bounced; positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | The two names that pass the long-horizon check near their lines |
| LMT, NOC, ITA, TDY, MSI, SHLD | 🟡 Bounce or base; negative alpha | 🔍 Watch | Under or at the 200-day; October 20 to 22 reports are the tests |
| UMAC | 🟡 Lost its line, alpha positive | 🔍 Watch | 21.7% week; needs the 200-day (19.1) back |
| AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, AXON, AMPX, ONDS, DPRO, DRNZ, JEDI, LASR | 🔴 Broken or fund-level downtrend | ⚠️ Avoid | nLIGHT's thesis rating is intact but it is 41.8% under its line with alpha -9.32; Red Cat and DRNZ are in capitulation, a knife not a base |
| PL | 🔴 Thesis broken | ❌ Don't buy | -21.07% week |
| HLSQ | 🔴 Quality veto | ❌ Don't buy | $0.22, -68.97% month |
| AVEX | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No 200-day; 3.75 times normal volume Friday, +1.12% |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Prime reports: RTX and Northrop October 20, Teledyne October 21, Lockheed October 22 (provider estimates) | The first dated test for primes that bounced on RSI without clearing their 200-days |
| RTX at its 200-day (195.04) | 0.6% away; the only prime where a reclaim now carries a positive year |
| Elbit's 800.43 pivot and 200-day (780.18) | A clean break over both would make it the strongest chart on the list |
| Unusual Machines at 19.1 | The cleanest small cap lost its line; a reclaim is the only repair |
| The capitulation trio (Red Cat, DRNZ, Tessera) | RSI near 20; stabilization has to show up before they are anything but damage |
| Kratos and Axon November 3, Motorola November 5, AeroVironment December 2 | Dated tests for the rest of the book (provider estimates) |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume, base pivots, support shelves): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-16 close — drone-defense.
- Friday backdrop: Bloomberg, October 16 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/s-p-500-steady-as-warsh-boosts-expectations-of-rate-hold (capture 2026-10-16-bloomberg-s-p-500-suffers-worst-week-since-june-as-ai-fears-hit-chipma-tmzzr4t96osi00); CNBC, October 16 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/oil-price-today-iran-strait-hormuz-ukraine-russia.html (capture 2026-10-16-cnbc-brent-oil-touches-110-as-iran-escalates-hormuz-attacks-ukrai-108420537).
- Lockheed dividend and AIM-260 framework item: news check latest (fetched 2026-10-14 PT; Simply Wall St summary dated October 12). Drone-lane read for October 12: 2026-10-12-market-brief.
- Kratos 424B3 (captured, not reviewed): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069258/000162828026065829/kratos-424b3october2026.htm (2026-10-14-ktos-424b3-0001628280-26-065829).
- Norway wealth-fund item: CNBC, October 16 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-defense-investment.html; PAC-3 output: X post, October 16 — https://x.com/ChurchillWw/status/2111103503699714080 (capture 2026-10-16-ChurchillWw-the-line-in-camden-arkansas-delivered-620-pac-3--99714080).
- Elbit second-quarter release, August 11 (news check latest); exchanges and fund names: provider info files stocks{ESLT,KRKNF,DRNZ,JEDI,SHLD}/info.json`; KRKNF absent from _securities.
- Cause checks for October 12-16: news checks under stocks/news/latest.json
(<a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/RTX/" data-ticker="RTX">RTX</a> and <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/NOC/" data-ticker="NOC">NOC</a> 2026-10-03; <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/ITA/" data-ticker="ITA">ITA</a> 2026-09-25; <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/ONDS/" data-ticker="ONDS">ONDS</a> 2026-09-04; most others 2026-10-15),research/stock-events/(no event for this list dated 2026-10-12 through 2026-10-16), and articles,tweets/,filings/` searched by company name for the week (only the two items named above). - Scheduled reports: 2026-10-20-rtx-earnings,
2026-10-20-noc-earnings.md,2026-10-21-tdy-earnings.md,2026-10-22-lmt-earnings.md,2026-11-03-ktos-earnings.md,2026-11-03-axon-earnings.md,2026-11-05-msi-earnings.md; AeroVironment December 2 per the October 12 market brief. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-09-drone-defense.
Related
8 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.