Drone & Defense Scan
Drone & Defense Scan
The defense primes climbed out of capitulation without repairing anything: RTX (RSI 37.3), Northrop (34.7) and Lockheed (39.8) all finished the week slightly higher, yet all three are still under their 200-day averages, and 21 of 23 names sit below their 20-day. The drone small caps kept sliding: Red Cat (RSI 25.3) and the REX Drone ETF (25.6) are at the edge of capitulation, Draganfly lost 16.82% on the week, and Elbit fell to RSI 29.1 as its gap to the 200-day widened to -15.6%. Only Unusual Machines and Motorola Solutions remain above their 200-day, and positive trailing-year alpha shrank to three names as Planet Labs dropped out.
Numbers are the settled October 9 close for all 23 names (Friday), one week after the October 2 scan. The list is unchanged at 23 names. AEVEX (AVEX) carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison, and the REX Drone ETF (DRNZ) has a 200-day but no trailing year. Comparison baseline is the October 2 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 20 of 22 names with a 200-day are below it; 21 of 23 below their 20-day; 17 of 23 lost ground on the week; 10 of 23 closed green on Friday |
| Leaders | Teledyne (RSI 49.4, -2% vs its 200-day), Planet Labs (45.2, thesis broken), Amprius (44), Kraken Robotics OTC line KRKNF (42.6), AEVEX (40.7), Unusual Machines (40.3, above its 200-day) |
| Laggards | Tessera (RSI 21.8, quality veto), Red Cat (25.3), REX Drone ETF DRNZ (25.6), Elbit (29.1), the aerospace-and-defense ETF ITA (33.2) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: Unusual Machines (9.9%, down from 19.9%) and Motorola Solutions (2.6%). Positive trailing-year alpha: Unusual Machines (20.59), Elbit (13.87), nLIGHT (11.03). Planet Labs fell out (alpha -6.3). 18 of 21 names with data carry negative alpha |
| Caveat | No defense-specific cause is on file for the week. News checks for the primes date from October 3 (RTX, Northrop) and October 6 (Lockheed, Elbit); Red Cat's, AeroVironment's, Kratos's and Planet Labs' were pulled October 8 and carry only quote and aggregator pages. The latest news checks are from October 8 or earlier, no articles or posts dated October 9 are on file, and the October 9 events calendar lists only Delta's earnings and Oracle's dividend. Moves below with no stated cause are cause unknown, not cause absent. |
What's Going On
The primes bounced in RSI but not in structure. A week ago RTX (23.9) and Northrop (24.9) were in capitulation. Today RTX is at 37.3 after a +0.7% week and Northrop at 34.7 after +0.57%, with Lockheed at 39.8 after +0.83%. None of them crossed a line that matters. RTX is 4.6% under its 200-day ($194.99) with alpha -1.33 on a 14.67% year, the closest prime to a repair. Lockheed is 9.6% under its line on a flat year (0.36%), and Northrop is 19.4% under on a -24.3% year with alpha -40.3, the weakest prime on the long windows. ITA confirms the group read: RSI 33.2, 10.3% under its 200-day, a -2.17% year. The prime reports are scheduled for October 20 (RTX, Northrop) and October 22 (Lockheed, provider estimate).
The drone small caps are where the week's damage sits. Draganfly fell 16.82% (RSI 36.6, -23.74% month, -66.72% year), Red Cat fell 9.84% to RSI 25.3 with a -29.03% month, and the REX Drone ETF fell 8.72% to RSI 25.6. The October 7 market brief invalidated its watch call when it closed at $18.57, under the $19.29 July 29 low; it closed Friday at $18.12, still under. The Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI) and the Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) are 15.6% and 11.8% under their 200-days on negative years. The funds show the weakness is the theme, not a few names.
The two names that passed the horizon check last week are weaker. Elbit fell 5.82% to RSI 29.1, and its gap to the 200-day widened from -10% to -15.6%, though its year is still 29.88% with alpha 13.87: a trend under test that is getting worse. Unusual Machines fell 6.88% and its cushion over the 200-day ($18.95) shrank from 19.9% to 9.9%. It is still the cleanest small cap (36.59% year, alpha 20.59), but the pullback is now deep enough to test the line. nLIGHT keeps its thesis rating of intact and positive alpha (11.03), but it is 33.6% under its 200-day after a -46.59% three months.
Two names need the quality caveat. Tessera (HLSQ), a biotech-to-defense pivot micro-cap, closed at $0.28 with a -82.41% month and RSI 21.8, -99.77% from its high. The business-quality veto applies, and no chart reading changes that. Kraken Robotics' OTC line (KRKNF) rose 8.25% on the week and fell 5.12% on Friday. It has no row in the desk's symbol registry, so its tradability is unverified; treat it as research-only.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Capitulation (RSI below 25): one name (Tessera), versus three on October 2 (RTX, Northrop, Tessera). The primes moved up a tier.
- Names above their 200-day: two (UMAC, MSI), the same two as October 2. Teledyne slipped from -1% to -2% under its line.
- Positive trailing-year alpha: three (UMAC, ESLT, LASR) versus four; Planet Labs dropped out.
- Below RSI 30 outside Tessera: Red Cat (25.3), DRNZ (25.6) and Elbit (29.1) are new to that zone.
- Breadth: six names up on the week (AVEX, LMT, RTX, NOC, KRKNF, AXON); Friday closed 10 green, 13 red.
- Universe: 23 names, unchanged.
How To Read The Board
The long windows are still the verdict. Twenty of the 22 names with a 200-day sit below it and 18 of 21 with a trailing year have negative alpha, so a low RSI is damage, not discount, for most of this book. The RSI bounce in the primes is a short-window event: it lifts them out of capitulation but leaves every one of them under its 200-day.
The primes and ITA have flat-to-modest trailing years (RTX 14.67%, Lockheed 0.36%, ITA -2.17%, Northrop -24.3%), so they are old trends at a test, not collapses. RTX is the only one within 5% of its line. The small caps (AeroVironment -65.58% year, Kratos -57.02%, Red Cat -60.64%, Draganfly -66.72%) are broken trends.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no contract awards, no insider dollars, no budget data. The three thematic ETFs (DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD) are normal equity funds, identified by their fund names; their holdings were not checked. KRKNF is research-only until its tradability is registered.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 9 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY | 2026-10-09 | 613.66 | 49.4 | 609.44 | 0.7 | -0.57 | 3.1 | 6.46 | -2 | 🟡 basing just under 200-day; negative alpha |
| PL | 2026-10-09 | 17.18 | 45.2 | 16.91 | 1.6 | -1.83 | -0.23 | 9.71 | -37.1 | 🔴 thesis broken; alpha turned negative |
| AMPX | 2026-10-09 | 9.44 | 44 | 9.52 | -0.8 | -2.38 | -4.36 | -26.31 | -29.8 | 🔴 downtrend; below 200-day |
| KRKNF | 2026-10-09 | 3.15 | 42.6 | 3.21 | -1.8 | 8.25 | -12.74 | -26.91 | -38.6 | 🔴 OTC line; research-only; below 200-day |
| AVEX | 2026-10-09 | 14.63 | 40.7 | 15.53 | -5.8 | 1.04 | -10.63 | n/a | n/a | too young; no 200-day |
| UMAC | 2026-10-09 | 20.83 | 40.3 | 22.98 | -9.3 | -6.88 | -14.35 | 36.59 | 9.9 | 🟢 above 200-day; cushion halved |
| LMT | 2026-10-09 | 509.59 | 39.8 | 519.06 | -1.8 | 0.83 | -2.84 | 0.36 | -9.6 | 🟡 off the lows; under 200-day |
| MSI | 2026-10-09 | 444.18 | 38.8 | 455.17 | -2.4 | -0.72 | -3.42 | -2.94 | 2.6 | 🟡 above 200-day; negative alpha |
| LASR | 2026-10-09 | 38.48 | 38.5 | 39.54 | -2.7 | -5.17 | -6.12 | 27.04 | -33.6 | 🟡 thesis intact; far under 200-day |
| AXON | 2026-10-09 | 422.89 | 38.5 | 435.9 | -3 | 2.31 | -13.7 | -42.39 | -14.2 | 🔴 collapse; below 200-day |
| RTXE | 2026-10-09 | 185.97 | 37.3 | 188.94 | -1.6 | 0.7 | -5.86 | 14.67 | -4.6 | 🟡 out of capitulation; closest prime to its 200-day |
| AVAV | 2026-10-09 | 137.11 | 36.8 | 149.2 | -8.1 | -2.63 | -2.62 | -65.58 | -31 | 🔴 downtrend; alpha deeply negative |
| DPRO | 2026-10-09 | 4.4 | 36.6 | 5.37 | -18.1 | -16.82 | -23.74 | -66.72 | -26.9 | 🔴 worst week in the book after Tessera |
| SHLD | 2026-10-09 | 59.87 | 36.5 | 61.2 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -3.19 | -14.62 | -11.8 | 🟡 defense-tech fund; under 200-day |
| KTOS | 2026-10-09 | 42.36 | 35.2 | 45 | -5.9 | -1.65 | -9.37 | -57.02 | -37.8 | 🔴 collapse; below 200-day |
| ONDS | 2026-10-09 | 6.73 | 34.9 | 7.33 | -8.2 | -7.04 | -7.68 | -35.84 | -28.5 | 🔴 downtrend; below 200-day |
| JEDI | 2026-10-09 | 23.5 | 34.9 | 25.38 | -7.4 | -6.63 | -7.84 | -14.36 | -15.6 | 🔴 drone fund; downtrend |
| NOCE | 2026-10-09 | 480.72 | 34.7 | 503.15 | -4.5 | 0.57 | -6.76 | -24.3 | -19.4 | 🔴 weakest prime; negative alpha |
| ITA | 2026-10-09 | 206.65 | 33.2 | 210.82 | -2 | -0.55 | -5.83 | -2.17 | -10.3 | 🟡 oversold; under 200-day |
| ESLT | 2026-10-09 | 655.74 | 29.1 | 713.57 | -8.1 | -5.82 | -8.21 | 29.88 | -15.6 | 🟢 oversold; positive alpha; trend under test |
| DRNZ | 2026-10-09 | 18.12 | 25.6 | 20 | -9.4 | -8.72 | -12.17 | n/a | -24.3 | 🔴 drone fund; under its July low |
| RCAT | 2026-10-09 | 5.77 | 25.3 | 6.67 | -13.4 | -9.84 | -29.03 | -60.64 | -47.1 | 🔴 collapse; near capitulation |
| HLSQ | 2026-10-09 | 0.28 | 21.8 | 0.54 | -47.2 | -20.83 | -82.41 | -99.76 | -98.5 | 🔴 quality veto: sub-$1 pivot micro-cap |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): HLSQ (21.8), a quality veto.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 16 names: RCAT (25.3), DRNZ (25.6), ESLT (29.1), ITA (33.2), Northrop (34.7), Ondas (34.9), JEDI (34.9), Kratos (35.2), SHLD (36.5), Draganfly (36.6), AeroVironment (36.8), RTX (37.3), Axon (38.5), nLIGHT (38.5), Motorola Solutions (38.8), Lockheed (39.8). Only Elbit and nLIGHT carry positive alpha in this group; the rest are damage.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 6 names: Teledyne (49.4), Planet Labs (45.2), Amprius (44), Kraken OTC line (42.6), AEVEX (40.7), Unusual Machines (40.3).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| RTXE | A held close back above its 200-day (194.99), 4.6% away; first support the 177.9 shelf | 14.67% year, alpha near flat (-1.33); report scheduled October 20 is the test |
| UMAC | A hold of its 200-day (18.95), now 9.9% below the price | Only small cap above its 200-day with positive alpha; a flag only if the line holds |
| ESLT | A reclaim of its 200-day (777.03), -15.6% away; 760.35 pivot | Elbit: 29.88% year, alpha 13.87, RSI 29.1; the trend is under test and slipping |
| TDY | A held close above its 200-day (626.11); the 24-week base pivot is 697.67 | A reclaim failed in September and it slipped further under this week; negative alpha; report scheduled October 21 |
| LASR | A reclaim of its 50-day (46.02) before the 200-day (57.92) is in play | Thesis rated intact, positive alpha, but -46.59% over three months |
| LMT, NOC, ITA | None yet: a held close above each 200-day (563.66, 596.09, 230.34) | Flat-to-negative years; RSI repair alone is not structure |
| KRKNF | None: research-only | OTC line; tradability unregistered |
| HLSQ | None | Business-quality veto |
| AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, AXON, PL, DPRO, ONDS, AMPX, DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD | None | Negative alpha on every long window, thesis broken (PL), or fund-level downtrend; damage, not discount |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMAC | 🟢 Cleanest name, cushion shrinking | 🔒 Hold | 9.9% above the 200-day after a -6.88% week |
| RTX, LMT, NOC, ITA | 🟡 Primes off the lows | 🔍 Watch | Out of capitulation, still under the 200-day; October 20 and 22 reports scheduled |
| ESLT, LASR | 🟡 Positive alpha, under 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Elbit at RSI 29.1 with the gap widening |
| TDY, MSI | 🟡 On or near the line | 🔍 Watch | Negative alpha; Teledyne reports October 21 |
| AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, AXON, AMPX, ONDS, DPRO | 🔴 Broken small caps | ⚠️ Avoid | Negative alpha; Red Cat at RSI 25.3 is a knife, not a base |
| DRNZ, JEDI, SHLD | 🔴 Theme funds under 200-day | ⚠️ Avoid | DRNZ's watch call was invalidated October 7 under its July low |
| PL | 🔴 Thesis broken | ❌ Don't buy | Alpha now negative; revisit only on a held close above its 50-day (19.54) |
| HLSQ | 🔴 Quality veto | ❌ Don't buy | $0.28, -82.41% month |
| KRKNF | 🔴 Research-only | 🔍 Research | Not in the symbol registry |
| AVEX | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No 200-day comparison; -65.45% from its high |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Prime reports: RTX and Northrop October 20, Lockheed October 22 (provider estimates) | The first dated test for primes that bounced on RSI without reclaiming their 200-days |
| RTX's 200-day (194.99) | 4.6% away; the only prime close enough for a reclaim to matter this month |
| Unusual Machines at its 200-day (18.95) | The cleanest small cap's cushion halved in a week |
| Elbit below RSI 30 with a -15.6% gap | The best long-window name in the group is sliding; its alpha (13.87) is the thing to watch |
| Teledyne report October 21 | Its next attempt at the 200-day comes with a print |
| Kraken's OTC line | Needs a tradability decision in the symbol registry or retirement as a thin OTC proxy |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-09 close — drone-defense.
- REX Drone ETF watch call invalidation: the October 7 market brief — 2026-10-07-market-brief; Planet Labs 50-day condition: the October 5-8 market briefs.
- Fund identities (DRNZ REX Drone ETF, JEDI Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF, SHLD Global X Defense Tech ETF): provider info files stocks{DRNZ,JEDI,SHLD}/info.json` (fetched 2026-09-30).
- Cause checks: news checks under stocks/news/latest.json
(latest fetched 2026-10-08; <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/RTX/" data-ticker="RTX">RTX</a> and <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/NOC/" data-ticker="NOC">NOC</a> 2026-10-03; <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/LMT/" data-ticker="LMT">LMT</a> and <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/ESLT/" data-ticker="ESLT">ESLT</a> 2026-10-06; <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/MSI/" data-ticker="MSI">MSI</a> and <a class="ticker-affordance" href="/t/JEDI/" data-ticker="JEDI">JEDI</a> have none), event files 2026-10-09-dal-earnings and2026-10-09-orcl-dividend.md, and articles,tweets/,filings/` searched by company name for October 3-9 (no move-explaining item; none dated 2026-10-09). - Tradability: _securities (HLSQ registered as primary listing; KRKNF absent).
- Scheduled reports: 2026-10-20-rtx-earnings,
2026-10-20-noc-earnings.md,2026-10-22-lmt-earnings.md,2026-10-21-tdy-earnings.md. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-02-drone-defense.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.