Reason: Retail rose for a second week and the bounce turned overbought: $TJX (up 6.18%), $WMT (up 6.7%) and $COST (up 4.46%) now read RSI 72.5 to 74.8, and $COST and $WMT closed back above their 200-days by 2.4% and 0.5%. The long record is the caution: all five years are modest (+3.35% to +22.78%), four of five trail the index, and $TJX, $YUM and $CASY remain under their 200-days. The staples fund rose 5.02% in a week the Nasdaq-100 fund fell 5.52%; no dated cause is on file for any single name.

Price/RSI Table

As of 2026-10-16. Status reads the 200-day trend first and RSI second; Action is a trend-hold lens: an extended name is never an entry, and a name below its 200-day with a modest year is a bounce, not a dip.

What Changed Since 2026-10-09

• COST: up 4.46% to RSI 72.5, now 2.4% above its 200-day ($966.12) from 1.7% under: one of two names here (with Walmart) to reclaim the line, on a +6.86% year that trails the index (alpha −8.67 points). 9.79% under its high, in a 24-week base with a $1,096.50 pivot far above. Two 8-Ks (filed October 14 and 16) are on file, contents unread.
• WMT: up 6.7% to RSI 73.0 and 0.5% above its 200-day ($118.27) from 5.8% under; +11.59% on the year with alpha −3.94 points. A 20.4-week base with a $125.80 pivot above. Three Form 4 filings dated October 16 are on file, unread.
• TJX: up 6.18% (19.94% on the month) to RSI 74.8, the most extended of the five, and still 2.9% under its 200-day ($151.79) on a +3.35% year. Its news was last pulled October 13 and holds nothing dated to this week's gains.
• YUM: up 3.93% to RSI 65.4, 2.0% under its 200-day ($153.54) on a +4.97% year with alpha −10.56 points. News was last pulled July 17 and held no articles, so news was not pulled for any of this period.
• CASY: up 6.65% (17.02% on the month) to RSI 63.5, 6.4% under its 200-day ($736.57) and 25.72% under its high; the only year with real gain (+22.78%, alpha +7.25 points). News was last pulled September 22, so not pulled for this move.
• Group read: the retail scan had 18 of 22 names up for a second week, with eight of 22 above their 200-day (five a week ago) and three of those eight within 2.5% of the line; Walmart, Costco and TJX are the three at RSI above 70. The defensive scan had all 15 of its names up on the week and the staples fund at RSI 71.9. Cause not established for the group or any name here. Roster unchanged since October 9.

Watch

An extended name is not an entry; the setup is a pullback that holds the 200-day with RSI back under 60. COST $966.12 and WMT $118.27 are the lines to hold, TJX $151.79 and YUM $153.54 the lines to reclaim. None of the five has a dated catalyst on file.

Sources

• Tape data (price, RSI, returns, one-year change, distance to the 200-day, base pivots): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-16 settled close, summaries (Massive/Polygon; Schwab for COST).
• Prior edition (format and roster only): 2026-10-09-retail; lane counts from 2026-10-16-retail-scan and 2026-10-16-defensive-scan; staples and Nasdaq-100 fund moves from 2026-10-16-market-pulse.
• Event checks: research/stock-events/ (nothing dated for these names through December), research/capture/ for October 12–16 (Costco 8-K stubs of October 14 and 16; Walmart Form 4 filings of October 16; no article headline or excerpt names these companies), the 2026-10-12 through 2026-10-15 market briefs under research/issues/; news receipts under stocks/news/latest.json` (WMT 2026-10-15; COST 2026-10-14; TJX 2026-10-13; CASY 2026-09-22; YUM 2026-07-17).