1. The Read
Thursday's bounce went around AI hardware: equal-weight stocks and small caps each rose 1.37% and the S&P 500 ETF got back over its 20-day average, while the chip-equipment lanes sold as one and CoreWeave's stock rebounded on the same day its default insurance hit distress levels.
Inflation ran hotter, and bonds rallied anyway. September producer prices rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, against forecasts of 0.6% and 5.5%, the biggest annual gain since 2022 (CNBC, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics); Bloomberg tied the jump to energy. One economist told CNBC there are "real risks the Fed will deliver another rate hike in two weeks' time," while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saw no urgency in October (Economic Times). Bonds treated the day as a growth scare: Treasuries led a global rally as the AI selloff deepened, municipal yields fell the most since April 2025, and the dollar had its worst day in over a month (all Bloomberg). $TLT rose 1.37%. Credit is the tell: the high-yield spread widened to 3.25% on October 14 from 3.16% a day earlier (FRED), and 3.50 is the line. VIX closed at 16.46.
The index held; the leadership changed. $SPY rose 0.28% to $771.79 at Thursday's close, 0.1% over its 20-day and 6.5% over its 200-day on a +16.03% year, so the long trend is intact. $QQQ slipped 0.13%, 2% under its 20-day. $IWM rose 1.37% but is still 0.9% under its 200-day ($277.54), a trend under test. Sector strength turned toward defensives, with AbbVie, Lilly and Gilead closing near records (MarketWatch). Many bounce leaders are broken charts: quantum went 13 for 13 and consumer 16 for 16, with $LULU (−40.7% on the year) and $IONQ (−52.56%) among them. BofA's fund-manager survey, relayed by the Kobeissi Letter, has consumer discretionary as the most underweighted sector since 2008, which fits a short squeeze better than a turn. News dug Thursday evening has nothing dated to the move for $LULU, $IONQ or $TTD. Intuit announced a deal for Sequence the same day (company investor page), but no report ties its 6.36% gain to it.
Neoclouds: the stock bounced, the credit didn't. Nine of ten names rose, a +1.46% median after Wednesday's 0-for-10, still leaving the lane down 14.38% at the median over seven sessions. $CRWV gained 5.94% to $69.69 on 3.67 times normal volume as CNBC reported its credit-default swaps at distress levels and Semafor reported a spike in the cost of insuring CoreWeave and Oracle debt. In Stockholm, Nvidia's Jensen Huang said CoreWeave's "strength is improving every day" and saw no need for an Nvidia backstop (relayed by Serenity on X; timing unknown). $WULF rose 9.36% on 3.71 times volume in what StockAnalysis called a rebound session; the TD Cowen Buy initiation and scheduled third-quarter call it lists are not dated to the move. $CORZ rose 7.03% and $IREN slipped 0.56%, the only decliner, at an RSI of 26.4; cause unknown for both, news dug Thursday evening.
$NBIS is the only intact trend. It closed at $188.41, up 1.29% on 2.72 times volume, 8.5% over its 200-day ($173.64) on a +49.73% year: a deep pullback, 37.17% off its high. $HUT is up 41.14% on the year but 7.2% under its 200-day ($81.95), so its trend is under test. $CRWV, $IREN, $APLD, $CORZ, $WULF, $CIFR and $GLXY are down 18.42% to 56.46% on the year and 24.7% to 44.9% under their 200-days: broken, with no entry before a base. A bounce while default insurance gets more expensive is reflexive buying, not a repair; CoreWeave's 200-day at $92.50 is its repair line. On the supply side, $MU rose 1.87% to $931.24 (30.3% over its 200-day, +385.17% on the year) while the memory list went 2 for 10, on China and a feared 2029 oversupply (CNBC). $LITE fell 2.99% to $869.54, inside its $830–$890 band and 12.2% over its 200-day. Both are pullbacks in intact trends: wait for the flag.
Chip equipment slipped under its 200-days on a record TSMC quarter. TSMC's results page shows third-quarter revenue of $46.72 billion, above its own $44.6–45.8 billion guide, and fourth-quarter guidance of $52.3–54.3 billion; provider-reported EPS was $4.60 against $4.52. $TSM still fell 1.8% on 2.25 times volume. $LRCX ($277.46) and $AMAT ($430.01) settled 1.4% and 1.9% under their 200-days, invalidating the September 6 entry map on those lines. $KLAC is 3.5% under and $TER 0.2% under, long trends under test after one-year gains of 60.5% to 143.36%. CNBC described a global hardware rout on AI-funding worries, MarketWatch tied the chip pressure to reported details of Anthropic's finances. Applied Materials' new $5 billion Sunnyvale innovation center (Manufacturing Dive) does not explain its drop, and news on Lam and Teradyne has nothing on the move; both report October 21 after the close (scheduled).
Seoul and Tokyo, trading before New York's bounce, fell harder: Kospi and Kosdaq dropped more than 6%, triggering sell-side sidecars (circuit-breaker pauses) in both markets (a Korean market headline relayed on Reddit). Samsung Electro-Mechanics fell 15.36%, SUMCO 13.85% and Lasertec 13.56%.
Earnings did the single-name damage. $FMC fell 30.53% to $5.62 on 6.81 times volume after preannouncing third-quarter revenue of $65–125 million against an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510–565 million (StockAnalysis): a business-quality veto, with the rest of the food-security list near flat. $MAN fell 15.82% after matching EPS consensus at $1.01 (provider-reported) on revenue of $4.84 billion against $4.86 billion expected (MarketBeat). The company's release (PR Newswire) puts reported EPS at $0.71 and guides fourth-quarter EPS to $1.03–1.13 on a 44% tax rate; it also names Becky Frankiewicz CEO from January 1, 2027, with Jonas Prising becoming executive chair. Treat these as context: no source ties the drop to them. It is still 12% over its 200-day. $ERIC rose 11.8% on 4.7 times volume on a beat (provider-reported EPS $0.20 against $0.14), with 7% organic growth but rising component costs and a flat radio-network market flagged (StockAnalysis); which line drove the gain is unknown. $STX fell 3.19% on reports that Toshiba will expand hard-drive production and on CXMT pressure on memory stocks (StockAnalysis; a media report, not a Toshiba release). It sits 2.7% over its 200-day ($672.66), the storage trade's line, before its October 27 report (scheduled). Uranium bounced partway ($LEU +5.89%, $CCJ +2.16%) and $VICR fell 10.36% into its $215–$245 band before Tuesday's report; cause unknown for all three, news dug Thursday evening.
Calls. The September 25 Broadcom call is invalidated: $AVGO settled at $344.33, under its $345.49 shelf and 6.5% under its 200-day on a −1.99% year. $PANW closed 0.9% under its 50-day, a marginal invalidation, inside its $362–$378 entry band on a +79.13% year. $WDAY closed over its written 20-day at $196.63, in zone, with nothing in the news dated to its 4.16% gain. $ZM rose 4.28% on normal volume, nothing dated to it, and cleared $92 on price but not its revenue condition.
Watch Friday: monthly options expire with no earnings on the calendar, and traders are awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (Bloomberg; no date given). Two sessions with $SPY over $779.37, $QQQ over $748.65 and VIX under 16 turn the read risk-on. Two sessions with $SPY under $756.86 and $RSP under $217.12 make it a broad break, and $RSP at $215 already sits under its half. For the neocloud stack, a close under $NBIS's 200-day at $173.64 leaves no name above that average. A high-yield spread at 3.50 invalidates the rotation read. Tuesday's heavy slate includes Netflix, GE, GM, RTX, Intuitive Surgical and Vicor (all scheduled).
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
790 advancing 456 declining 50% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (18) — MAN RSI 37.5 → 22.4, 9880.HK RSI 31.9 → 26.5, 3308.HK RSI 31.1 → 27.6, 005930.KS RSI 34.4 → 27.7, 688017.SS RSI 31.4 → 27.8, GLNG RSI 31.3 → 27.9, BELFA RSI 30.2 → 28.3, FLNG RSI 34.5 → 28.3, HUMN RSI 31.2 → 28.5, KGS RSI 32.8 → 28.5, 688825.SS RSI 32 → 28.6, SHA0.DE RSI 32 → 28.6, SQM RSI 31.2 → 28.8, ICHR RSI 30.6 → 29.2, RKLB RSI 33.2 → 29.2, 6324.T RSI 40.4 → 29.7, +2 more.
New overbought (24) — CON RSI 69.3 → 77.8, SIG RSI 66.2 → 77.1, ETSY RSI 69 → 76.3, PAYC RSI 67 → 75.5, MAR RSI 66.9 → 74.7, VEEV RSI 66.9 → 74, ELF RSI 62.5 → 72.9, INTA RSI 59.7 → 72.9, DOCU RSI 68.8 → 72.4, V RSI 67.5 → 72.2, HLT RSI 61 → 71.7, MRNA RSI 69.1 → 71.7, PACS RSI 61.6 → 71.7, WMT RSI 69.1 → 71.6, GCT RSI 67.4 → 71.5, FTRE RSI 63.3 → 71.1, +8 more.
Death crossings (5) — AAOI 0.96% → -0.06%, AVGO 0.2% → -0.2%, CLS 0.18% → -0.12%, MARA 0.18% → -0.27%, VNQ 0.14% → -0.03%.
New monsters (23) — FIVN 42.8% → 51%, MGNI 38.7% → 41.9%, ARKG 33.4% → 35.7%, FROG 32% → 35.4%, VAC 27.6% → 34.4%, WPP 26.2% → 33.9%, XMTR 28.2% → 33.8%, ETSY 24.7% → 33.7%, PRGO 29.2% → 33.3%, KSS 25.7% → 33.1%, TNET 27% → 33.1%, NAVN 26.9% → 32.9%, PCTY 27.2% → 32.8%, USO 29.7% → 32.4%, WCLD 27.7% → 32.3%, BB 25.4% → 32.1%, +7 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (41) — ETSY -5.73% → -1.05% from high, WCLD -5.16% → -1.64% from high, FLYW -8.46% → -1.93% from high, SHOP -5.32% → -2.22% from high, WPP -7.96% → -2.23% from high, IQV -5.55% → -2.29% from high, RNG -8.18% → -2.39% from high, APLE -5.09% → -2.43% from high, BBY -7.7% → -2.44% from high, CALF -5.52% → -3.07% from high, LLY -6.49% → -3.17% from high, CLOU -5.28% → -3.18% from high, FTRE -9.23% → -3.23% from high, GTLB -8.17% → -3.37% from high, PACS -9.11% → -3.52% from high, TNET -8.24% → -3.68% from high, +25 more.
Newly in an entry zone (4) — IBM $234.12 · $231.80-$244.00, LITE $869.54 · $830-$890, MU $931.24 · $920-$985, VICRE $219.92 · $215-$245.
3. Pulse
- Hot producer prices meet softer Fed talk — a hike in two weeks would raise the cost of money for debt-funded AI builders, while Daly's "no urgency" keeps the October meeting open; September PPI rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year. Defensive ↑ · Neoclouds ↓. CNBC and Economic Times, 2026-10-15. Change: none proposed.
- AI credit stress reaches the default-swap market — if insuring CoreWeave and Oracle debt keeps getting more expensive, every borrower in the GPU stack pays more for new money, whatever its stock does on a bounce day. Healthcare ↑ · Neoclouds ↓. CNBC and Semafor, 2026-10-15. Change: none proposed.
- Iran war: strike options against emergency barrels — reports that the US is weighing its largest non-nuclear bomb, plus two cargo ships sunk near Hormuz, keep a premium in crude, while the IEA completing its 100 million-barrel release and adding more than 20 million barrels of diesel caps it. Canadian Oil & Gas ↑ · Travel & Leisure ↓. CNBC, Semafor and Bloomberg, 2026-10-15. Change: none proposed.
- Google's TPUv7 posts a cost win over GB300 NVL72 — SemiAnalysis measured 1.67 times better performance per dollar on agentic inference; if inference spending moves off GPUs, the GPU fleets neoclouds borrow against lose rental value. Custom AI Silicon ↑ · Neoclouds ↓. SemiAnalysis, 2026-10-15. Change: none proposed.
- The bond bid went global — Treasuries led a worldwide rally on haven demand, municipal yields fell the most since April 2025, and Australia's three-year auction drew its strongest demand since 2018 on bets that its hiking cycle is ending; a peak-rates read lowers the discount rate on long-duration software and trims the rate tailwind for banks and brokers. Cloud SaaS ↑ · Financials ↓. Bloomberg, 2026-10-15. Change: none proposed.
Hatch: open — the desk would not tighten tonight: the S&P 500 ETF is back over its 20-day with a 6.5% cushion over its 200-day, VIX at 16.46 is a normal reading, and the high-yield spread at 3.25% on October 14 is still under its 3.50 line. Two sessions with the S&P 500 ETF under $756.86 and equal-weight under $217.12, or a high-yield spread at 3.50, would change that.
4. Focus List
5. Sector Scorecard
Travel & Leisure — +3.5%, 9 of 9 up, leading on the month. ABNB +4.32% is the intact chart, 20.3% above its 200-day. Glass-Core Panel-Level Packaging — −2.6%, 0 of 8 up. It holds TSM (−1.8%) and AMAT (−3.72%). Co-Packaged Optics — −2.5%, 2 of 34 up, sold as one. CMP Slurries & Consumables — −2.7%, 1 of 4 up. Advanced Packaging Equipment — −2.9%, 1 of 6 up. Lithography Equipment — −3.1%, 1 of 6 up. ASML (+0.45%) was the exception. WFE Test & Metrology — −3.2%, 1 of 13 up, sold as one. FORM fell 5.32% and TER 4.52%; Teradyne news dug Thursday evening has nothing on the move. Deposition Equipment — −3.3%, 0 of 3 up. LRCX and AMAT are now under their 200-days. Applied's new $5 billion innovation center (Manufacturing Dive) does not explain its drop. Etch Equipment — −3.3%, 0 of 6 up, sold as one. ENTG (−4.06%) is the only member still well above its 200-day. Lam news dug Thursday evening has nothing on the move. Iran War Second- and Third-Order Effects — −3.6%, 2 of 7 up. Tankers fell (FRO −6.63%, DHT −6.09%, INSW −4.74%) on a day USO rose 2.44%. Cause unknown: tanker news dug Thursday evening has nothing dated to the move. Semiconductor Test & Burn-In — −4.5%, 0 of 3 up, a fading 30-day leader. FORM, TER and KEYS fell more than 4% each.
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
The desk's assessments cover 8 of 125 lanes. 11 authored assessments matched no lane (travel & leisure, glass-core panel-level packaging, co-packaged optics, cmp slurries & consumables, advanced packaging equipment, lithography equipment, wfe test & metrology, deposition equipment, etch equipment, iran war second- and third-order effects, semiconductor test & burn-in) — kept in the chapter text above.
6. The Wild & Whacky
- Insured against, bid up. CNBC reported CoreWeave's credit-default swaps at distress levels Thursday, and Semafor said the cost of insuring CoreWeave and Oracle debt spiked. $CRWV rose 5.94% on 3.67 times volume and $ORCL rose 3%. That evening, a headline shared on r/wallstreetbets read "CoreWeave Founders Shield Fortunes With $3.3 Billion Stock Sales."
- Record quarter, red close. TSMC beat its own revenue guide and guided the fourth quarter to $52.3–54.3 billion (TSMC results page). $TSM fell 1.8% on 2.25 times volume.
- A loss bigger than the revenue. FMC preannounced third-quarter revenue of $65–125 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510–565 million (StockAnalysis). $FMC fell 30.53%, and Barclays' new target is $4.
- Raised the outlook, lost a tenth. At its analyst day, Semtech raised its fiscal third-quarter outlook and laid out a path to $3.2 billion of revenue by fiscal 2030 (MarketBeat). $SMTC fell 10.01% on 2.79 times volume.
- Most hated, most bought. BofA's survey has 34% of fund managers underweight consumer discretionary, the most bearish since 2008, and tech the most overweighted since August 2020 (Kobeissi Letter). The consumer list went 16 for 16 while $QQQ slipped.
- Target up, stock down 15%. DS Investment raised its Samsung Electro-Mechanics target to KRW 2.60 million, and the stock fell 15.36% to KRW 1,163,000 the same day (ad-hoc-news).
7. What I'd Tell a Friend
The market didn't recover Thursday; money moved out of AI hardware into consumer, travel, software and pharma. Bonds rallied on growth fear even with producer prices up 6.3% on the year. $SPY is fine at $771.79 with a 6.5% cushion over its 200-day. Two sessions under $756.86 with equal-weight under $217.12 would make this a broad break. In the neocloud stack, a CoreWeave bounce on a day its default insurance got more expensive is not a signal. $NBIS is the only intact trend there, and its 200-day at $173.64 is the line; the entry is a hold there and then a tight flag, not a bounce day. The chip-equipment makers just slipped under their 200-days after years of 60%-plus gains, so their trends are under test; the October 21 Lam Research and Teradyne reports are the next test. $MU and $LITE are pullbacks inside big uptrends: wait for the flag. The one thing to watch is the high-yield spread: 3.25% on October 14, and 3.50 turns a rotation into a credit event.
8. The Front Page
Monster Watch · 155 of 1274 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 125 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… EV Clean Energy Outflow -8.0% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… AI Power Outflow -8.2% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Drone Defense Outflow -8.3% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Space Outflow -9.2% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Memory Outflow -10.4% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%… Thebuildout Lithium Battery Metals Outflow -10.6% 30D TheBuildout · Lithium & Battery Metals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithium-battery-metals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Alt Managers Outflow -11.4% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Food Security Outflow -11.6% 30D Food security — geopolitical energy shock cascade play. Fertilizer (NTR Nutrien, MOS Mosaic, CF Industries), farm equipment (DE Deere), grain trading (ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland, BG Bunge Global — added 2026-05-10, $24B… Quantum Computing Outflow -12.8% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -13.1% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Neoclouds Outflow -13.4% 30D GPU cloud and AI infrastructure providers, including power-rich data-center and former crypto-mining operators. Nearline Storage Outflow -13.5% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. 9. Key Signals
Recorded signals · 37
10. Paper Trade Report Card
yolo $111,141 +11.1% 6 open · updated 2026-10-15
claude trader $109,262 +9.3% 14 open · updated 2026-10-15
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
momentum trader $97,360 -2.6% 0 open · updated 2026-09-29
bench signals $47,304 n/a 47 open · updated 2026-10-15
11. Active Perspectives
Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp active high latest 2026-09-06
AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings active high latest 2026-09-06
Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI power: rack and chip conversion active high latest 2026-09-06
AI power: generation and grid equipment active high latest 2026-09-06
Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline active high latest 2026-09-06
AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Energy shock to hardship: the Saudi phase of the Iran war active high latest n/a
Today's Actions · 181 002472.SZ · 688017.SS · AAL
exit · 59
002472.SZ tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
688017.SS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
AAL tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ACMR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ADEA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
AGIO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse. trend-hold
ALLYE tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
AMBA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
APO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ARQQ tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ARWR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ATRO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
AXGN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
AXSM tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
BCE tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
BHVN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
CAMT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
CECO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
CEF tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
CLDX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
COHR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
COIN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
CRSP tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
DNLI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
DNTH tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
EDIT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ELVN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
FXY tape broken — Confirmed tape transition uptrend → downtrend.
GHRS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
GLW tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
HIVE tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ICHR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
IFNNY tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
IMNM tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
IMVT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
IONQ tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
KEEL tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
KEN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
KGS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
LAD tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
MARA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
MKSI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
NEO.TO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
NOK tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
NOPMF tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
NXPI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
OPTX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
Q tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
RMBS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
RYTM tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
SIVE.ST tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
SMTOY tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
SRPT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
TLT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend. trend-hold
TTMI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
VPG tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
WDC tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
XLRE tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
XRT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
entry · 122
MRNA breaking out 2.4% off its 52-week high after a +20.1% week — a +275% three-month run, not a one-week pop
V breaking out 0.9% off its 52-week high after a +6.6% week · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
TMO breaking out 1.1% off its 52-week high after a +6.8% week — a +28% three-month run, not a one-week pop
NG.L coming into play — 16.4% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.6% this week)
IBM $231.80–244.00 coming into play — 29.6% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.3% this week) · in its $231.80–244.00 buy zone
NVTS $8–10 in its $8–10 buy zone
PANW $362–378 in its $362–378 buy zone trend-hold
SDGR $23–26 in its $23–26 buy zone
VICRE $215–245 in its $215–245 buy zone
VZ $44–48 in its $44–48 buy zone
AWK $133.04 a real base is forming — watch for the breakout · vwap reclaim — new this week
CRSR $13.24 basing after run — new this week
ERIC $10.71 vwap reclaim — new this week
ESLT $741.61 vwap reclaim — new this week
FFIV $456.58 basing after run — new this week
FTNT $181.91 basing after run — new this week
REGN $796.34 basing after run — new this week
SBUX $96.88 vwap reclaim — new this week
SNOW $335.07 basing after run — new this week
ARKX $35.85 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $35.85 · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
GLD watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
RSP $211.45 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $211.45 · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
7011.T a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AAPL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AES a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
APD a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
APLE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AR a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ARKQ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AVAL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AVUV a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BAPR a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BJAN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BRK-B a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BUFR a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
CALF a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
CE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
CNC a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
COFE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
COWZ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
CPER a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DGRW a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DIA a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DIVO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DLO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DOW a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ECHO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ECL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
EOG a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
FANG a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
FLYW a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
FXI a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
GSAT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
HALE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
HLT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ICL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
IMO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
IRDM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
IWM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
IWO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
JEPI a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
JEPQ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
KAROE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
KRBN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
LIT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
LYB a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MA a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MAR a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MMME a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MOAT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MUR a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
NHC a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
NSP a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
OGN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
PAHC a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
PH a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
PJAN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
PYPL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
QUAL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
QYLD a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SCHX a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SOLS a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SRUUF a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
TDY a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
TM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
UAE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
UJAN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
USA a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VOO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VTI a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VTV a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VYM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XLY a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XYLD a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XYZ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
CDNS $352.55 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $352.55 trend-hold
MXL $91.79 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $91.79 trend-hold
ZS $198 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $198 trend-hold
AMZN no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, +0.3% this week, 11.3% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — under both its 50- and 200-day, +3.4% this week, 21.1% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -11.1% this week, 45.9% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +0.3% this week, 14.5% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — no trend read yet (under a year of price history), -14.5% this week, 69.0% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +1.3% this week, 13.4% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -15.1% this week, 64.2% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -14.2% this week, 77.8% off its 52-week high
MSFT no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +3.2% this week, 2.6% off its 52-week high trend-hold
MU no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -10.1% this week, 25.8% off its 52-week high
NET no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -7.5% this week, 14.6% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NFLXE no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +1.4% this week, 41.9% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — under both its 50- and 200-day, -0.4% this week, 18.5% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -5.8% this week, 10.7% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — under both its 50- and 200-day, -20.7% this week, 50.9% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -15.4% this week, 71.9% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -12.2% this week, 72.6% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -8.2% this week, 71.3% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -10.7% this week, 78.2% off its 52-week high
SHOP no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +8.3% this week, 2.2% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -13.3% this week, 40.8% off its 52-week high
TSLA no setup today — above its 50-day but not its 200-day, -3.4% this week, 27.3% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -18.9% this week, 92.1% off its 52-week high
All Scans 2 complete · 29 without a dated artifact
market pulse missing
ai scan missing
ai infrastructure missing
biotech scan missing
nvda ecosystem missing
defensive scan missing
healthcare scan missing
consumer scan missing
retail scan missing
cloud etfs missing
cybersec missing
ev clean energy missing
etf universe missing
insider scan missing
bargain bin missing
tech insider buys missing
crypto scan missing
macro commodities missing
defense contractors missing
geopolitical risk missing
optical supply chain missing
drone defense missing
supply chain traces missing
wfe test metrology missing
food security missing
cultural thesis missing
airlines missing
chemicals missing
travel leisure missing
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 264, pullback: 371, uptrend: 217, downtrend: 175.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-10-15 vs 2026-10-14; 22 confirmed state-to-state flips, 3 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $002472.SZ pullback -> collapse; $2383.TW uptrend -> pullback; $3037.TW uptrend -> pullback; $ABBV basing -> uptrend; $ACMR pullback -> collapse; $APD pullback -> basing.
- Notable entries: $PCTY -> uptrend.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.82% as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
5.19% as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.33% as of 2026-10-15 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.88% as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.84% as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
336.3 as of 2026-09-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
3.25% as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
121.6 as of 2026-10-09 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
16.87 as of 2026-10-14 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.50 as of 2026-10-09 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors (RS +9.8, 0% strong-up, today -0.4%), CPU Shortage Supply Chain (RS +8.3, 38% strong-up, today -1.3%), Thebuildout Eda Software (RS +7.3, 0% strong-up, today -2.5%) — OUT OF Nearline Storage (RS -15.4), Neoclouds (RS -15.3), Nuclear Fuel Cycle (RS -15.0). Benchmark SPY +1.9% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Volume Setups (accel +3.9, 67% up), Consumer (accel +3.9, 50% up), Consumer Staples (accel +3.4, 60% up), Canadian OG (accel +3.1, 86% up), Government Compute (accel +3.0, 50% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Cultural Thesis (accel +5.5, 38% up, led by BRBR/LULU/NKE), Lazarus (accel +4.0, 40% up, led by INTU/LULU/NKE), Livestock Disease (accel +3.1, 35% up, led by BLMN/WING/WEN), Defensive (accel +3.0, 27% up, led by WMT/HD/HRL). TURNING LAGGARDS (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): Watching (30d -7.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +9.3), Defense Contractors (30d -7.1, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.7), Peptide Economy (30d -7.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +8.4), Financials (30d -6.7, 7d +1.2, divergence +7.9), Adtech (30d -6.4, 7d +0.9, divergence +7.3), Government Compute (30d -4.0, 7d +2.8, divergence +6.8), Cultural Thesis (30d -0.7, 7d +6.0, divergence +6.7), Geopolitical (30d -4.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +6.4), Livestock Disease (30d -3.3, 7d +3.1, divergence +6.3), Lazarus (30d -1.4, 7d +4.4, divergence +5.8), Volume Setups (30d -1.4, 7d +4.3, divergence +5.7), Defensive (30d -1.1, 7d +3.5, divergence +4.6), Canadian OG (30d -0.9, 7d +3.6, divergence +4.5), Macro Commodities (30d -4.2, 7d +0.3, divergence +4.5), China Tech (30d -1.1, 7d +2.7, divergence +3.8), War Sensitivity (30d -2.4, 7d +0.6, divergence +3.0), Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas (30d -1.0, 7d +0.7, divergence +1.7), Hard Assets (30d -0.9, 7d +0.8, divergence +1.7). Fading leaders: Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors (accel -11.2, today -0.4%), CPU Shortage Supply Chain (accel -13.2, today -1.3%), Thebuildout Eda Software (accel -9.2, today -2.5%), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel -16.1, today -4.5%), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors (accel -9.5, today -0.2%), Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals (accel -4.9, today +0.1%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Volume Setups (accel +3.9, 67% up); Consumer (accel +3.9, 50% up); Consumer Staples (accel +3.4, 60% up); Canadian OG (accel +3.1, 86% up); Government Compute (accel +3.0, 50% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): watching (30d -7.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +9.3); defense-contractors (30d -7.1, 7d +1.6, divergence +8.7); peptide-economy (30d -7.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +8.4); financials (30d -6.7, 7d +1.2, divergence +7.9); adtech (30d -6.4, 7d +0.9, divergence +7.3); government-compute (30d -4.0, 7d +2.8, divergence +6.8); cultural-thesis (30d -0.7, 7d +6.0, divergence +6.7); geopolitical (30d -4.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +6.4); livestock-disease (30d -3.3, 7d +3.1, divergence +6.3); lazarus (30d -1.4, 7d +4.4, divergence +5.8); volume-setups (30d -1.4, 7d +4.3, divergence +5.7); defensive (30d -1.1, 7d +3.5, divergence +4.6); canadian-og (30d -0.9, 7d +3.6, divergence +4.5); macro-commodities (30d -4.2, 7d +0.3, divergence +4.5); china-tech (30d -1.1, 7d +2.7, divergence +3.8); war-sensitivity (30d -2.4, 7d +0.6, divergence +3.0); thebuildout-renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas (30d -1.0, 7d +0.7, divergence +1.7); hard-assets (30d -0.9, 7d +0.8, divergence +1.7).
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY +0.3%, RSP +1.4%. 125 lanes with 3+ settled names; 15 closed at least 90% up, 9 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural Thesis | +4.5% | 7/8 | early-turn (RS -0.7) |
| Quantum Computing | +4.4% | 13/13 | lagging (RS -14.7) |
| Consumer | +3.9% | 16/16 | emerging (RS -0.1) |
| Adtech | +3.7% | 10/10 | neutral (RS -6.4) |
| Lazarus | +3.7% | 9/10 | early-turn (RS -1.4) |
| Travel Leisure | +3.5% | 9/9 | leading (RS +5.9) |
| Cloud SAAS | +3.3% | 11/16 | neutral (RS +1.5) |
| Retail | +2.9% | 20/22 | leading (RS +4.4) |
| … 109 more | |||
| Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables | -2.7% | 1/4 | neutral (RS +1.3) |
| Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment | -2.9% | 1/6 | neutral (RS +0.4) |
| Thebuildout Lithography Equipment | -3.1% | 1/6 | neutral (RS +1.1) |
| WFE Test Metrology | -3.2% | 1/13 | neutral (RS +1.2) |
| Thebuildout Deposition Equipment | -3.3% | 0/3 | neutral (RS +0.5) |
| Thebuildout Etch Equipment | -3.3% | 0/6 | neutral (RS +0.4) |
| Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects | -3.6% | 2/7 | neutral (RS +1.6) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment | -4.5% | 0/3 | fading (RS +7.3) |
What moved together
- Quantum Computing +4.4% median, 13 of 13 up; the 30-day rank still reads lagging — a one-day re-rate the month-scale rank cannot see.
- Consumer +3.9% median, 16 of 16 up, 3.6 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Etch Equipment -3.3% median, 0 of 6 up, 3.6 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- WFE Test Metrology -3.2% median, 1 of 13 up, 3.5 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Adtech +3.7% median, 10 of 10 up, 3.5 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Lazarus +3.7% median, 9 of 10 up, 3.5 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Travel Leisure +3.5% median, 9 of 9 up, 3.2 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging -2.6% median, 0 of 8 up, 2.9 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO -2.5% median, 2 of 34 up, 2.8 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Retail +2.9% median, 20 of 22 up, 2.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $FMC -30.5% on 6.8× volume — attribution: watched; Food Security -0.4% (3/11)
- $322310.KS -17.0% on 2.2× volume — attribution: watched; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $MAN -15.8% on 4.2× volume — attribution: blindside; no lane on file
- $009150.KS -15.4% on 2.0× volume — attribution: watched; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $APPN +14.0% — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $3436.T -13.8% — attribution: watched; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $6920.T -13.6% — attribution: watched; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $5803.T -12.7% — attribution: watched; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $KRMN +12.5% — attribution: blindside; Watching +2.1% (11/15)
- $6315.T -12.4% — attribution: unavailable; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
- $ERIC +11.8% on 4.7× volume — attribution: blindside; AI Infrastructure -0.1% (27/54)
- $6324.T -11.6% — attribution: unavailable; AI Bottlenecks -1.8% (58/214)
9 more movers past the cap.
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 16.46 (NORMAL) · 1d -2.4%. • VIX NORMAL — 16.46 (16-20). Baseline vol; no gate either way.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.0% · LQD +1.0% · IEF +1.0% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-08-24)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-09-16)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — RESOLVED NO (Kalshi, settled 2026-09-16)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — RESOLVED NO (Polymarket, settled 2026-10-02)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — RESOLVED NO (Kalshi, settled 2026-10-01)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 69% (Polymarket, as of 10-15; wk -14pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 8% (Polymarket, as of 10-15; wk +1pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 5% (Kalshi, as of 10-15; wk -1pt)
The Prints
- $TSM — Reported EPS $4.60 versus analyst consensus of $4.52 (+1.7%).
- $UNH — Reported EPS $4.69 versus analyst consensus of $4.14 (+13.3%).
- $ASML — Reported EPS $11.82 versus analyst consensus of $10.76 (+9.9%).
- $JPM — Reported EPS $5.75 versus analyst consensus of $5.94 (-3.2%).
- $BAC — Reported EPS $0.91 versus analyst consensus of $1.11 (-17.8%).
- $JNJ — Reported EPS $2.59 versus analyst consensus of $2.52 (+2.7%).
- $GS — Reported EPS $17.01 versus analyst consensus of $13.09 (+30.0%).
- $SCHW — Reported EPS $1.69 versus analyst consensus of $1.66 (+2.1%).
- $WFC — Reported EPS $1.87 versus analyst consensus of $1.86 (+0.8%).
- $MS — Reported EPS $3.03 versus analyst consensus of $2.92 (+3.9%).
- $C — Reported EPS $2.83 versus analyst consensus of $2.62 (+7.9%).
- $BLK — Reported EPS $15.93 versus analyst consensus of $14.30 (+11.4%).
- …and 6 more filled prints in the calendar.
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
Tripwires
- Tripwires: 3 change(s) since the 2026-10-15 duty pass — call-flag ×3. Triage before reading as signal.
- 3 wire change(s) pending review.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Called | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ASTS | 2026-10-09 | pass | None; a broken long trend that lost a reported spectrum source. Revisit after a base… | 2026-11-13 | pending |
| $CEG | 2026-10-09 | watch | A pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while… | 2026-11-13 | pending |
| $LITE | 2026-10-02 | watch | A flag that holds above the 20-day average ($941.73 at the Oct 2 close) while RSI… | 2026-11-06 | pending |
| $ARKX | 2026-09-30 | watch | after a close back above the 200-day (about $32.41 on 2026-09-29), a close through… | 2026-12-15 | pending |
| $DRNZ | 2026-09-30 | watch (invalidation?) | a close above both the 200-day (about $24.00 on 2026-09-29) and the $25.32… | 2026-12-11 | pending |
| $ACN | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | after the report scheduled for October 1, a close above $197.63, the top of its… | 2026-10-23 | pending |
| $ADBE | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit on a base and a close above the 200-day (about $262.68 on 2026-09-25) | 2026-12-18 | pending |
| $AKAM | 2026-09-25 | watch (invalidation?) | a flag that holds the $108.28 support shelf, then a close above $126.02 (top of the… | 2026-11-13 | pending |
| $AVGO | 2026-09-25 | watch (invalidation?) | a close above the 200-day (about $368.35 on 2026-09-25) that holds for a week | 2026-12-18 | pending |
| $CDNS | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | a pullback that holds the $317.27 support shelf, then a close above $352.55 (top of… | 2026-11-06 | pending |
| $CRWV | 2026-09-25 | watch (invalidation?) | a close above the 200-day (about $92.18 on 2026-09-25) with the $85.64 support shelf… | 2026-11-20 | pending |
| $FLY | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; down on the year and under the 200-day (about $27.79 on 2026-09-25); revisit… | 2026-11-27 | pending |
| $GSAT | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; priced off Amazon's pending merger terms, not a trend | 2026-11-20 | pending |
| $HUBS | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit on a base and a close above the 200-day (about $250.71 on 2026-09-25) | 2026-11-13 | pending |
| $INTU | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit after weeks of basing above the $262.24 shelf and a close above the… | 2026-11-27 | pending |
| $IRDM | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; a merger-arbitrage price set by $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock, not a trend | 2026-11-20 | pending |
| $NOW | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | after the pullback holds the 50-day (about $125.79 on 2026-09-25), a close back… | 2026-11-06 | pending |
| $ORCL | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit on a base that reclaims the 200-day (about $164.54 on 2026-09-25) with… | 2026-12-18 | pending |
| $PL | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit on a close above the 50-day (about $20.40 on 2026-09-25) that holds a… | 2026-12-18 | pending |
| $RKLB | 2026-09-25 | watch (invalidation?) | a close above both the 200-day (about $81.09 on 2026-09-25) and the anchored VWAP… | 2026-11-20 | pending |
| $SPCX | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | a confirmed close above the $156.87 range high | 2026-12-18 | pending |
| $TTD | 2026-09-25 | pass | none; revisit on a close above the 50-day (about $15.11 on 2026-09-25) after the… | 2026-11-13 | pending |
| $VSAT | 2026-09-25 | watch (invalidation?) | pullback in an intact trend: a close back above the 50-day (about $75.29 on… | 2026-11-20 | pending |
| $WDAY | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | a close back above the 20-day (about $193.30 on 2026-09-25) with the 50-day (about… | 2026-12-11 | pending |
| $ZS | 2026-09-25 | watch (in zone) | the pullback holds $188 and closes back above $198 (the September breakout zone) on… | 2026-12-04 | pending |
| $RSP | 2026-09-23 | watch (in zone) | RSP closes back above its 20-day average ($216.10 on the Sept 23 close) on a session… | 2026-10-23 | pending |
| $DBA | 2026-09-18 | watch (invalidation?) | DBA back over its 50-day with RSI above 50 (Sept 18 close $28.15, RSI 41.4, 0.3%… | 2026-10-14 | pending |
| $MSTR | 2026-09-18 | watch | Not this print. Strategy would have to hold $137.04 (its 200-day) and $134.95 (its… | 2026-10-02 | pending |
| $SNDK | 2026-09-07 | watch | A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close… | 2026-09-30 | -4.1% |
| $AMAT | 2026-09-06 | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders,… | 2026-09-11 | +10.4% |
| $LRCX | 2026-09-06 | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory… | 2026-09-11 | +2.5% |
| $NVDA | 2026-09-06 | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled… | 2026-09-11 | +4.3% |
| $TSM | 2026-09-06 | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout… | 2026-09-11 | +8.2% |
| $WDC | 2026-09-06 | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | -15.6% |
| $BE | 2026-08-28 | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | +25.2% |
| $GDX | 2026-08-28 | watch (invalidation?) | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | -11.3% |
| $GLD | 2026-08-28 | watch (invalidation?) | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 | -7.1% |
| $MKSI | 2026-08-28 | watch (in zone) | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | +1.5% |
| $SIL | 2026-08-28 | watch (invalidation?) | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | -11.8% |
| $SLV | 2026-08-28 | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | -8.0% |
| $AGIO | 2026-08-24 | watch (invalidation?) | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | +4.2% |
| $DHR | 2026-08-24 | watch (in zone) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | +2.4% |
| $GDX | 2026-08-19 | watch (invalidation?) | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 | -0.9% |
| $KRE | 2026-08-19 | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 | -2.0% |
| $HYG | 2026-08-18 | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 | -0.4% |
| $SPY | 2026-08-18 | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 | 0.0% |
| $TLT | 2026-08-18 | watch (invalidation?) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 | +0.8% |
| $AXON | 2026-08-15 | watch (invalidation?) | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | -17.4% |
| $ITA | 2026-08-15 | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | -12.2% |
| $KTOS | 2026-08-15 | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | -23.3% |
| $RCAT | 2026-08-15 | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | -23.8% |
| $UMAC | 2026-08-15 | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | -23.3% |
| $SLV | 2026-08-08 | watch (invalidation?) | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $CVX | 2026-07-31 | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | +2.0% |
| $HAL | 2026-07-31 | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | +11.6% |
| $USO | 2026-07-31 | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $LEU | 2026-07-19 | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | 2026-07-18 | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 | +7.2% |
| $DK | 2026-07-18 | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 | -0.1% |
| $MPC | 2026-07-18 | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 | +9.5% |
| $PANW | 2026-07-18 | watch (invalidation?) | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 | +3.6% |
| $S | 2026-07-18 | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | +8.0% |
| $SMH | 2026-07-18 | watch (in zone) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 | +2.2% |
| $CCJ | 2026-07-17 | watch (invalidation?) | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | +11.2% |
| $LEU | 2026-07-17 | watch (invalidation?) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $CBRS | 2026-07-09 | watch (invalidation?) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 | +13.0% |
| $MSFT | 2026-07-09 | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $ORCL | 2026-07-09 | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | 2026-07-08 | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | 2026-07-08 | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | 2026-07-08 | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | 2026-07-08 | buy (invalidation?) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | 2026-07-08 | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | 2026-07-08 | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | 2026-07-08 | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $MXL | 2026-07-08 | watch | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | 2026-07-08 | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $WDAY | 2026-07-08 | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $ZM | 2026-07-06 | watch | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 | +16.0% |
| $STX | 2026-07-05 | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — Seagate's company-wide GAAP operating margin… | 2026-09-01 | -5.3% |
Resolved this week: $GEV watch (2026-10-09).
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
webSemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) — SemiAnalysis — ASML is building a hybrid bonding tool $ASML · link- SemiAnalysis (Oct 15) says ASML is building a hybrid bonding tool, the chip-stacking step in advanced packaging. ASML has not announced anything; the evidence it cites is patent filings, a news report and ASML's own roadmap. Only the headline and summary are on file; the full article is behind SemiAnalysis's paywall.
𝕏Zephyr (@zephyr_z9) — Zephyr — the physics of SK Hynix's HBM4 problem: halving the die gap cuts underfill flow 8x $SKHY $MU $005930.KS · link- A physical explanation for reports that SK Hynix's HBM4 back-end work has stalled (posted Oct 14). Flow between two close surfaces scales with the cube of the gap, so cutting the die gap from 13 to 6.5 microns for a 16-high stack cuts underfill flow about eightfold. He builds on his own earlier post, which cites a Mar…
𝕏dylan ツ (@demian_ai) — dylan (@demian_ai) — ASML's long-term contract liabilities jumped almost €6B in a quarter: demand with money attached $ASML · link- ASML stopped publishing bookings this year, so dylan reads the order book off the balance sheet (posted Oct 14). The long-term part of contract liabilities is cash customers have paid or been billed for tools not yet delivered. By his read it rose by almost €6B in one quarter, and short-term investments rose alongside…
𝕏Markos (@MarkosAAIG) — Markos (AAIG) — neocloud returns now come down to yield on cost vs. 6–9% financing; watch dollar-per-megawatt pricing $CRWV $IREN $NBIS $WYFI · link- The clearest framework for the neocloud credit scare (posted Oct 14). A finished project earns a yield on cost (his example: 12%). Financing now runs about 6% for well-protected facilities and 9%+ for others, and he expects the better projects to pay low-7s. That leaves little cushion once build costs rise. His test f…
𝕏KawzInvests (@KawzInvests) — KawzInvests — CoreWeave pays about 8.4% blended, not 15%; the real risk is the next financing $CRWV · link- A line-by-line read of CoreWeave's Q2 10-Q (posted Oct 14). By his count, one $1.3B loan out of roughly $35B of debt carries 15%, and the blended cost is about 8.4%. The 15% figure going around is the market yield on the 2032 bond, not what the company pays. His follow-up post names the real risk: if the next ~$20B ha…
𝕏Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) — Eric Nuttall — energy fund ends two months of defense and deploys cash on an $84 2027 WTI strip · link- A Ninepoint energy portfolio manager publicly turns from defense to deploying cash (posted Oct 14). He says the US policy risk he feared before the midterms, such as a diesel export ban, has largely passed. He cites a 2027 WTI strip of $84 and says some energy names are cheaper than on January 1 despite 70%+ gains. It…
𝕏dylan (@demian_ai) — dylan — AI's silicon interposers are pulling in the older fabs that make power and analog chips $GFS · link- One chain from three items: GlobalFoundries' five-year, $2 billion deal to make silicon interposers for TSMC in New York (volume from the first half of 2028; REX Shares' October 12 chipmaking update carries the same $2 billion figure), the Vanguard–NXP Singapore fab cutting its planned output by a fifth to make room f…
𝕏Paradis (@ParadisLabs) — Paradis — GS and JPM: Tuesday's KOSPI selling was about 95% tech, foreign sellers against Korean dip-buyers $EWY · link- Paradis says Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan confirm that Tuesday's KOSPI selling was about 95% concentrated in tech, mainly SK hynix and Samsung, with foreign investors selling while Korean institutions and retail bought. For the memory case that reads as foreign de-risking, not local capitulation. The quoted post adds th…
𝕏M. V. Cunha (@mvcinvesting) — M. V. Cunha — Nebius reportedly signs an LOI for a big share of a planned 600 MW AI campus in Rotterdam $NBIS · link- M. V. Cunha relays a De Telegraaf report that Nebius signed a letter of intent for a significant share of VOLT's planned 600 MW Rotterdam campus, whose first 200 MW phase alone is put at €7 billion. It is one newspaper report and an LOI is not a contract, but it would extend Nebius's European pipeline at a time when t…
𝕏KawzInvests (@KawzInvests) — KawzInvests — Celestica's OCP data: transceiver qualification windows shrink to 18 months while GPUs refresh every 12 $CLS $VIAV $AEHR $FORM $TER · link- Celestica's numbers, shown at the OCP Global Summit: qualification and testing windows for optical transceivers fell from 36 months at 400G to 24 at 800G and 18 at 1.6T, while GPU platforms refresh every 12 months. If validation rather than laser output sets the pace, test and qualification suppliers sit on the optics…
𝕏Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — Serenity — Asian coverage of Hock Tan's DBS remarks has him defending OpenAI, not calling AI a casino $AVGO · link- Serenity collects Hong Kong Economic Journal and Business Times coverage of Broadcom CEO Hock Tan at the DBS conference. In that coverage Tan called OpenAI's roughly $50 billion run-rate "by itself, not that bad", rejected the idea that OpenAI is overvalued, aimed the casino line at investors selling on one data point…
𝕏Satya Nadella (@satyanadella) — Satya Nadella — Maia becomes Microsoft's primary inference system at multi-gigawatt scale starting next calendar year $MSFT · link- Microsoft's chief executive in his own words: Maia scales to multi-gigawatt deployments from next calendar year as the primary inference system for Microsoft's products, and Maia 300 claims 40% more tokens per watt than leading GPU systems. This is the source behind Monday's reports that Microsoft will lean more on it…
webBloomberg — asset managers are dumping long-duration Treasury futures, a sign of forced selling $TLT · link- Bloomberg reports asset managers offloading long-duration Treasury futures, which it reads as forced deleveraging with cash yields just off multiyear highs. That puts a positioning unwind under this week's long-end selloff, worth separating from a repricing of inflation or deficits when judging whether the move has fu…
webSemafor — a large tanker from the US to Asia now costs up to $77M to hire, from under $10M last year $FRO $DHT $BWET · link- Semafor reports charter rates for large crude tankers at a record, up to $77 million for a US-to-Asia crude voyage against less than $10 million a year ago, as more crude moves through a Hormuz under attack. Freight is where the war's cost lands first for importers, and this is the hard number behind the tanker-owner…
𝕏Aakash Gupta (@aakashgupta) — Aakash Gupta — SpaceX's 800 MHz buy is the indoor layer satellites were missing $VZ $T $TMUS $SPCX · link- The low-band licenses SpaceX agreed to buy on October 8 are Sprint's old Nextel block, which T-Mobile was forced to sell after the Sprint merger. Gupta's point is the physics: a 2 GHz satellite signal stops at the first wall, 800 MHz gets indoors and most phones already support it, which is why the carriers repriced t…
𝕏SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) — SemiAnalysis — rising H100 rents break the depreciation curve lenders underwrite, with $7T of debt coming $CRWV $NBIS · link- SemiAnalysis opened a group on how GPU clusters get financed, starting from an odd fact: H100 rental prices rose on a chip lenders model as losing value, and that depreciation curve sets how much a neocloud can borrow against its fleet. After the October 8 OpenAI revenue scare this is the credit-side view of the same…
𝕏Eric Nuttall (@ericnuttall) — Eric Nuttall — $80-plus WTI for 2027 is now on the table, with free-cash-flow yields up about half $XLE $XOP · link- Nuttall, a Canadian energy fund manager, has underwritten $70 WTI for 2027 as a floor rather than a forecast; he now puts $80-plus on the table if the status quo holds, worth roughly a 50% lift in producers' average free-cash-flow yields. A companion post the same morning ties it to IRGC strikes hitting about two ship…
𝕏Convequity (@convequity) — Convequity — Lumentum's laser demand rides on CPO design choices that are still open $LITE · link- The same week Lumentum's CEO told Bloomberg the company is effectively sold out to nearly 2029, Convequity laid out why it stayed out of the stock: its external lasers and MEMS optical switches win only in the co-packaged-optics and switching designs that keep them, while light sources moved onto the package, micro-LE…
Filings
- NEW: $MSFT 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-15)
- NEW: $ARQQ 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-13)
- NEW: $AA 8-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-15)
- NEW: $RDDT 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-13)
- NEW: $HOOD 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-13)
- NEW: $SMCI 8-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-14)
- NEW: $TSM 6-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-09-30)
- NEW: $AMKR 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-13)
- NEW: $NVMI 6-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-15)
- NEW: $KLIC 4 filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-13)
- NEW: $NOK 6-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-15)
- NEW: $PLUG 8-K filed 2026-10-15 (period 2026-10-15)
- …and 112 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $MSFT 4 (2026-10-15); $ARQQ 4 (2026-10-15); $AA 8-K (2026-10-15); $RDDT 4 (2026-10-15); $HOOD 4 (2026-10-15); $SMCI 8-K (2026-10-15); $TSM 6-K (2026-10-15); $AMKR 4 (2026-10-15); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-10-15. Row dates: 2026-10-15: 2844, 2026-10-14: 18.
- Summary coverage: 2844/2862 rows at 2026-10-15; 1257 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 779 up, 447 down, 11 flat across 1237 names; median 1D change +0.8%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 41 up, 15 down, 0 flat; median 1D change +0.9% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $APPN | +14.0% | +13.3% | +15.6% | 67.5 | Overbought | $43.82 | monster-discoveries |
| $KRMN | +12.5% | +7.0% | -9.5% | 46.6 | strong-down | $33.90 | monster-discoveries |
| $ERIC | +11.8% | +12.7% | +6.7% | 68.6 | Overbought | $10.71 | ai-infrastructure |
| $RXRX | +11.2% | +5.3% | +28.4% | 54.3 | strong-up | $4.16 | biotech-capital-cycle |
| $EOSE | +10.8% | -22.0% | -46.9% | 28.9 | Oversold | $2.16 | ai-bottlenecks |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $FMC | -30.5% | -37.0% | -50.0% | 16.5 | Extreme oversold | $5.62 | food-security |
| $322310.KS | -17.0% | -30.4% | -6.3% | 32.8 | Oversold | $11340.00 | ai-bottlenecks |
| $MAN | -15.8% | -19.5% | -25.2% | 22.4 | Extreme oversold | $43.74 | monster-discoveries |
| $009150.KS | -15.4% | -24.8% | -11.7% | 33.0 | Oversold | $1163000.00 | ai-bottlenecks |
| $3436.T | -13.8% | -23.6% | -8.6% | 32.5 | Oversold | $2652.50 | ai-bottlenecks |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (17): $DUST -8.5%, $NUGT +8.4%, $LABD -6.8%, $LABU +6.2%, $TZA -4.0%, $TNA +4.0%, $SOXL -2.9%, $SOXS +2.6%, … — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF stop-loss — $104 | 2026-10-02 | $CF | HOLDING — $119.77 is 15.2% above the $104 stop | $104 |
| MDT entry-zone — $92-$95 | 2026-10-02 | $MDT | APPROACHING — $95.45 is 0.5% above $92–$95; waiting for the pullback | $92-$95 |
| MDT stop-loss — $85 | 2026-10-02 | $MDT | HOLDING — $95.45 is 12.3% above the $85 stop | $85 |
| NTR stop-loss — $69 | 2026-10-02 | $NTR | NEAR STOP — $69.58 is 0.8% above the $69 stop, trend down | $69 |
| AMD entry-zone — $545-$560 | 2026-09-29 | $AMD | APPROACHING — $562.23 is 0.4% above $545–$560; waiting for the pullback | $545-$560 |
| PANW entry-zone — $362-$378 | 2026-09-29 | $PANW | IN ZONE — $370.27 inside $362–$378, trend weak-down | $362-$378 |
| AMZN entry-zone — $242-$247 | 2026-09-25 | $AMZN | APPROACHING — $254.76 is 3.1% above $242–$247; waiting for the pullback | $242-$247 |
| PLTR entry-zone — $194.68-$199 | 2026-09-25 | $PLTR | APPROACHING — $200.50 is 0.8% above $194.68–$199; waiting for the pullback | $194.68-$199 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 743;
convergentCount0;divergentCount0.