Portfolio - AI Infrastructure
Update
Portfolio - AI Infrastructure
AI needs compute. These companies provide it. ASML ran without us.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mixed - AMZN/TAC entry, ASML FOMO, NVDA hold |
| Key insight | ASML +33% = missed. TAC is the sleeper. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | TAC | Cheap, Alberta catalyst coming |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMZN | Sideways = DCA opportunity |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA | Already heavy, consider trimming |
| 🔍 WATCH | TSM | Foundry monopoly, geopolitical risk |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ASML | +33% run, wait for pullback |
Legend
- RSI
↓= Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity - RSI
↑= Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback - 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Data
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $242.94 | +1% | +0% | +4% | -4% | -6% | 46 | 🟡 Sideways | 📈 Accumulate |
| NVDA | $185.69 | -1% | +2% | -1% | -10% | -13% | 51 | 🟡 Consolidating | 🔒 Hold |
| ASML | $1,441.40 | +1% | +2% | +17% | +35% | -3% | 70↑ | 🔴 Ran | ⚠️ Avoid |
| TAC | $12.77 | -0% | -1% | -1% | -28% | -29% | 57 | 🟢 Pullback | ✅ Strong Buy |
| TSM | $341.37 | +3% | -1% | +6% | +12% | -3% | 56 | 🟡 Steady | 🔍 Watch |
Analysis
AMZN - Amazon
Thesis: AWS + Anthropic investment. 10yr compounder.
- Sideways is accumulation zone
- Not exciting short-term
- Long-term: still THE cloud/AI backbone
Verdict: 📈 DCA on schedule
NVDA - Nvidia
Thesis: THE AI chip. GPU monopoly.
- Already significant exposure
- Consolidating after massive run
- AI demand still real
Verdict: 🔒 Hold core, consider trimming if overweight
ASML - ASML Holding
Thesis: EUV monopoly. Only company making these machines.
- +33% run without you
- Thesis is unbreakable
- Price is premium ($1,400+)
Verdict: ⚠️ FOMO trap. Wait for $1,200-1,300 pullback.
TAC - TransAlta
Thesis: Alberta energy + data center power demand.
- Local knowledge: data centers being built
- Market hasn't caught on yet
- Either opportunity or wrong
Verdict: ✅ Entry zone. Cheap sleeper.
TSM - TSMC
Thesis: Foundry monopoly. Makes all the chips.
- Geopolitical risk (Taiwan)
- Trades as ADR on NYSE
- New addition to track
Verdict: 🔍 Watch, research geopolitical angle
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| ASML monopoly is real | But +33% = wait for dip |
| TAC hasn't moved | Sleeper opportunity |
| TSM is tradeable | ADR on NYSE |
Mistakes
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Missed ASML run | Should have bought at $1,100 |
Open Questions
- When does ASML pull back to entry?
- Is TAC thesis playing out (Alberta data centers)?
- TSM geopolitical risk - deal breaker?
Next Actions
Related
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