Friday EOW update — wave-curve rotation; NuttyCLD Part 4 cross-validation

Update

Friday EOW update — wave-curve rotation; NuttyCLD Part 4 cross-validation

  • Type: refresh (subtype: weekly)
  • event_id: 2026-05-01-optical-supercycle-friday-eow
  • Source: Production refresh — 2026-05-01-optical-supercycle
  • Shift: Wave 1 (LITE/COHR/CIEN/FN) consolidating in the way leaders consolidate (5-9% pullbacks, RSI digesting from 60s to 50s) — setting up into COHR May 13 earnings. Wave 3 (TSEM +51% 30D RSI 71, ALAB +83% 30D) running hard. Wave 4 (LWLG +75% 30D) starting to get sniffed. The action rotated up the wave curve — healthy supercycle behavior. NuttyCLD's Part 4 ends with CPO as the power-delivery endgame — independent external voice arriving at our Wave 4 framework from the power-delivery side. Reframes Wave 4 as watt-saving, not just bandwidth.
  • Effect on thesis: HOLD with TILT toward Wave 3+4. Cross-thesis convergence hardening on COHR (4 paradigms now converging). Add NuttyCLD as a corroborating-source affects.
  • Per-ticker: LITE → (consolidating into COHR earnings), COHR → (cooling into May 13 — exactly what we want), CIEN → (still going), FN → (toll-booth holding), TSEM ↑↑ (RSI 71, +51% 30D), ALAB ↑↑ (+83% 30D, monster), LWLG ↑↑ (+75% 30D, Wave 4 sniffing), AXTI ↑ (healthy pullback), VIAV ↑ (testing equipment ripping), ONTO ↑ (inspection equipment, picks-and-shovels)
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 28 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Apr 26 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Apr 26 ScanMonster Scan Apr 13 ScanOptical Supply Chain Apr 12 ArchiveAI Optical Supercycle Apr 28 ScanMonster Scan May 29 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan May 25 InvestigationOptical supercycle WHY: what specifically drove the CIEN/COHR demand acceleration Jun 16 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan

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