TGT — candidate.roundup
TGT — candidate.roundup
Reason: TGT extended to near-ATH (+5.89% week); quality defensives (WMT/COST/TJX) basing at SMA200; HD approaching SMA200 reclaim (-0.9%); brands still collapsing.
Tape-read: One continued breakout (TGT, -1.7% from high after +5.89% week), three quality defensives still basing at/near SMA200, and a pile of broken brand names that remain death-crossed. HD is the watch: at -0.9% below SMA200 after +4.35% this week it's one good session from a reclaim — but the death cross holds until it actually crosses. ANF is the surprise: RSI 62 with a bounce above SMA200 despite the death cross.
- TGT — CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT/EXTENDED: RSI 65.4, strong-up, golden cross, +31.2% vs SMA200; +5.89% 7d, only -1.7% from 52wk high — cleanest retail trend, holding at near-ATH.
- WMT — OVERSOLD-QUALITY/BASING: RSI 37.5, golden cross, -0.7% vs SMA200; -1.71% 7d — basing just below SMA200, +167% 5y structural trend intact.
- COST — OVERSOLD-QUALITY/BASING: RSI 41.2, golden cross, -0.3% vs SMA200; -0.54% 7d — sitting right at SMA200, -13.1% from high.
- TJX — OVERSOLD-QUALITY/BASING: RSI 39.9, golden cross, +2.2% vs SMA200; -6.32% 7d — rested hardest on the week but holding above SMA200.
- HD — WATCH (approaching): RSI 67.1, death cross, -0.9% vs SMA200; +4.35% 7d — rallying into SMA200 from below; if it reclaims and cross flips, becomes a buy setup.
- LOW — MIXED/AVOID: RSI 53.9, death cross, -8.3% vs SMA200; +2.51% 7d — recovering slightly but structure broken.
- ANF — MIXED/WATCH: RSI 62.4, death cross, +2.1% vs SMA200; +5.92% 7d — above SMA200 despite death cross; the cross is the concern, the price action is the positive.
- NKE — BROKEN-AVOID: RSI 35.4, death cross, -28.6% vs SMA200, -41.9% 1y; -7.08% 7d — collapse, no change.
- DPZ / LULU — BROKEN-AVOID: DPZ RSI 43.5 death-cross -21.8% vs SMA200 / LULU RSI 47.4 death-cross -29% vs SMA200 — both falling knives, LULU +4.05% 7d bounce means nothing in this structure.
Lead pick: TGT — only confirmed uptrend in the group; near-ATH after +5.89% week. Don't chase — wait for a flag toward SMA20 (~$130) that holds. HD is the next watch: one SMA200 reclaim + cross flip makes it a setup. WMT/COST/TJX are quality bases; add on a green day that holds SMA200.
Related
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