Retail Candidates
Update
Retail Candidates
Retail Candidates — March 26, 2026
Overview
Retail bifurcating sharply. Defensive retail (TJX, TGT, WMT, COST) holding or pushing higher with golden crosses and above SMA200. Discretionary retail (HD, LOW, SHOP, NKE, LULU) remains broken or deeply oversold. TGT and TJX are the standouts — TGT strong-up, +18.5% above SMA200. MCD approaching oversold at RSI 34.5, still above SMA200 (+1.2%). DECK enters extreme oversold at RSI 28.3. DPZ and CMG in death cross.
Candidates
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D | 30D | Signal | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | $157.62 | 52.1 | strong-up | +4.4% | -2.5% | GC | Discount retail. Strong-up + golden cross. +10.2% vs SMA200. Best setup. |
| TGT | $117.00 | 54.8 | strong-up | +1.2% | +2.8% | GC | Target. Strong-up, +18.5% vs SMA200. Momentum building. |
| WMT | $122.18 | 46.9 | weak-down | +2.3% | -4.3% | GC | Walmart defensive hold. +13.0% vs SMA200. Golden cross. |
| COST | $979.65 | 48.2 | weak-down | -0.5% | -3.1% | GC | Costco pulling back but +3.5% vs SMA200. Defensive. |
| MCD | $308.96 | 34.5 | weak-down | -0.7% | -8.9% | GC | McDonald's approaching oversold. +1.2% vs SMA200. Golden cross. Watch. |
| DECK | $93.71 | 28.3 | down | -5.0% | -20.1% | GC | HOKA parent extreme oversold. Golden cross intact. Risk entry. |
| HD | $328.45 | 33.8 | strong-down | +1.7% | -13.2% | DC | Home Depot deep in death cross. -11.2% vs SMA200. |
| SHOP | $115.43 | 41.0 | strong-down | -2.7% | -4.4% | DC | Shopify. Death cross. -18.1% vs SMA200. -31% 3M. |
Action Items
- TJX: Best chart in retail. Hold/add. Discount retail is the tariff-proof trade.
- TGT: Emerging strong-up. Watch for continuation above $120.
- MCD: RSI 34.5 approaching entry zone. Golden cross + above SMA200 = quality setup.
- DECK: RSI 28 is extreme. Small entry for a bounce. Golden cross provides structural support.
- HD/SHOP: Avoid. Death cross with no technical recovery signal.
Related
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