Retail Candidates

Update

Retail Candidates

Retail Candidates — March 31, 2026

Overview

Retail remains bifurcated but the defensive names are holding better. TJX RSI 56.9, strong-up, golden cross — still the standout. TGT RSI 62, strong-up, +2.5% vs SMA20 and +3.0% 7D — momentum building. COST flipped from weak-down to strong-up at RSI 55.2, +0.5% vs SMA20. WMT holding with +0.5% 7D and golden cross. MCD approaching oversold: RSI 38.8, golden cross intact, -2.7% below SMA20. DECK bounced from extreme to RSI 41.3 — the entry zone is gone but structure improved. HD and SHOP both remain broken.

Candidates

Ticker Price RSI Trend 7D 30D Signal Take
TGT $120.64 62.0 strong-up +3.0% +6.6% GC Target breaking out. Strong-up, +2.5% vs SMA20. Best momentum in retail.
TJX $159.68 56.9 strong-up -1.2% -0.2% GC Discount retail king. Strong-up + golden cross. +1.5% vs SMA20.
COST $994.76 55.2 strong-up +2.2% -0.8% GC Costco flipped to strong-up. +0.5% vs SMA20. Recovering.
WMT $124.15 52.3 strong-up +0.5% -2.1% GC Walmart golden cross + strong-up. Defensive hold. +0.6% vs SMA20.
MCD $309.78 38.8 weak-down -0.6% -7.0% GC McDonald's approaching oversold. -2.7% vs SMA20. Golden cross intact. Watch.
DECK $98.91 41.3 down -5.8% -13.6% GC Recovered from RSI 28 extreme to 41. Golden cross intact. Not yet buyable.
HD $328.70 38.1 strong-down -1.4% -10.8% DC Home Depot death cross. -3.0% vs SMA20. Approaching oversold but broken.
SHOP $117.72 45.5 strong-down -3.4% -1.4% DC Shopify. Death cross. -4.5% vs SMA20. Structurally broken.

Action Items

  • TGT: Best risk/reward in retail. Strong-up + golden cross + +3.0% 7D. Breaking out.
  • TJX: Steady hold. Discount retail is the tariff-proof trade. Strong-up intact.
  • COST: Upgraded from weak-down to strong-up. Defensive play rounding out the portfolio.
  • MCD: RSI 38.8 approaching entry. Golden cross + above SMA200 = quality setup. Watch RSI 35.
  • DECK: RSI bounce to 41 is constructive but golden cross needs to clear the down trend first.
  • HD/SHOP: Avoid. Death crosses with no recovery catalyst.

Key Changes vs 03/26

Ticker Price 03/26 Price 03/31 Move Note
TGT $117.00 $120.64 +3.1% Strong-up intensifying. +6.6% 30D. Building momentum.
TJX $157.62 $159.68 +1.3% Steady. Still the defensive anchor.
COST $979.65 $994.76 +1.5% Flipped from weak-down to strong-up. Upgraded.
WMT $122.18 $124.15 +1.6% Recovering. Strong-up now.
MCD $308.96 $309.78 +0.3% Holding. RSI 34.5 → 38.8.
DECK $93.71 $98.91 +5.6% RSI bounced from extreme 28.3 → 41.3. Structure improved.
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Mar 31 ScanRetail Scan Apr 3 UpdateRetail Candidates Apr 3 ScanRetail Scan Mar 26 UpdateRetail Candidates Mar 26 ScanRetail Scan Mar 24 ScanRetail Scan Apr 10 UpdateRetail Candidates Apr 10 ScanRetail Scan Mar 20 ScanRetail Scan Apr 13 ScanRetail Scan

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