Retail Candidates

Update

Retail Candidates

Retail Candidates — April 3, 2026

Overview

Retail bifurcation intact. Defensive names holding strong: COST RSI 63.6, strong-up, +2.5% above SMA20, +7.2% vs SMA200 — the defensive anchor. TGT RSI 60.4, strong-up, +2.3% above SMA20, +21.3% vs SMA200. TJX RSI 59.1, strong-up, near 52-week high (-0.9%). WMT RSI 56.6, strong-up, golden cross. Discretionary names struggling: NKE extreme oversold at RSI 20.1, -14.5% 7D. HD death cross RSI 34.3, -1.2% 7D. LULU death cross RSI 41.8. SHOP death cross RSI 45.7.

Candidates

Ticker Price RSI Trend 7D 30D Signal Take
COST $1,014.96 63.6 strong-up +3.4% +0.7% GC Costco. +2.5% vs SMA20. +7.2% vs SMA200. Strong-up. Defensive anchor.
TGT $120.45 60.4 strong-up +1.2% -0.3% GC Target. +2.3% vs SMA20. +21.3% vs SMA200. Strong momentum.
TJX $161.29 59.1 strong-up +2.6% +1.0% GC Discount retail king. +2.5% vs SMA20. Near 52wk high (-0.9%).
WMT $125.79 56.6 strong-up +1.7% -1.5% GC Walmart. +1.9% vs SMA20. +15.5% vs SMA200. Steady.
ANF $92.25 52.3 weak-down +4.4% -7.0% GC Abercrombie. +5.2% above SMA20. Golden cross. Recovered.
MCD $307.14 36.8 weak-down -0.1% -7.5% GC McDonald's approaching oversold. -2.9% vs SMA20. Golden cross. +0.5% vs SMA200.
DECK $98.31 41.0 down +5.1% -10.5% GC Bounced from extreme. -2.7% vs SMA20. Golden cross. -4.7% vs SMA200.
SBUX $90.37 42.4 weak-down +3.2% -6.5% GC Golden cross holds. -4.4% below SMA20. +2.0% vs SMA200.
YUM $156.09 46.0 weak-down +0.5% -2.7% GC YUM Brands flat. -1.2% vs SMA20. +4.3% vs SMA200. Golden cross.
NKE $44.19 20.1 strong-down -14.5% -25.6% DC EXTREME OVERSOLD. -16.5% below SMA20. -32.8% vs SMA200. Capitulation.
HD $321.63 34.3 strong-down -1.2% -11.8% DC Home Depot. -4.0% vs SMA20. -12.9% vs SMA200. Death cross. Broken.
LULU $155.72 41.8 strong-down +7.2% -10.6% DC Bounced but death cross. -2.5% vs SMA20. -17.5% vs SMA200.
SHOP $118.25 45.7 strong-down +5.7% -3.0% DC Shopify. -3.0% vs SMA20. -16.1% vs SMA200. Death cross.

Action Items

  • COST/TGT/TJX/WMT: The defensive retail quartet is the trade. All strong-up with golden crosses. Hold/add.
  • MCD: RSI 36.8 approaching oversold. Golden cross + above SMA200. Quality name for staged entry at RSI 33-35.
  • NKE: RSI 20 is extreme. -14.5% 7D is capitulation. Contrarian watch only — needs stabilization above RSI 25.
  • HD: Death cross + -12.9% vs SMA200. Structural break. Avoid.
  • DECK: Golden cross intact. +5.1% 7D bounce constructive. Watch RSI 50.
  • SHOP/LULU: Death crosses. Bear rallies, not reversals.

Key Changes vs 03/31

Ticker Price 03/31 Price 04/03 Move Note
COST $994.76 $1,014.96 +2.0% RSI 55 -> 64. Upgraded further.
TGT $120.64 $120.45 -0.2% Holding. RSI 62 -> 60.
TJX $159.68 $161.29 +1.0% Near 52wk high.
WMT $124.15 $125.79 +1.3% Steady climb.
MCD $309.78 $307.14 -0.9% RSI 38.8 -> 36.8. Approaching oversold.
NKE $52.61 $44.19 -16.0% Crashed. RSI 35 -> 20. Extreme oversold.
HD $328.70 $321.63 -2.2% Continued decline. Death cross.
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 3 ScanRetail Scan Mar 31 ScanRetail Scan Apr 10 UpdateRetail Candidates Apr 10 ScanRetail Scan Mar 26 ScanRetail Scan Apr 13 ScanRetail Scan Mar 24 ScanRetail Scan Mar 20 ScanRetail Scan Mar 13 ScanRetail Scan Mar 11 ScanRetail Scan

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