Classic bifurcation: defense primes (LMT, NOC) are getting crushed on budget concerns while pure-play drone/counter-drone names (LASR, EOPSF, AVAV) show relative strength. The thesis pivot is clear — away from legacy defense contractors, toward autonomous systems and directed energy. LMT and NOC are at extreme oversold (RSI 19-18) but these are value traps, not bounces, until contract clarity improves. KTOS at RSI 32 is the most interesting contrarian setup.

LASR ($75.79, RSI 65.5, +74% 3M)

nLIGHT is the standout. Defense-focused fiber laser manufacturer — counter-drone directed energy is the thesis. +74% 3M with RSI 65 = strong but not extended. Still 88% above SMA200. This is the one name in the basket that's actually working as a pure-play autonomous systems winner. Hold.

LMT ($513.45, RSI 19), NOC ($575.11, RSI 18)

Both at extreme oversold. Both down 12-14% this week alone, -17-18% on 30D. The RSI levels scream "bounce imminent" from a technical standpoint, but the fundamental narrative is hostile: defense budget cuts, program delays, F-35 scrutiny, DOGE-related procurement uncertainty. Neither stock has broken below SMA200 yet (LMT -1% vs SMA200, NOC -7%), but if they do, the next support is materially lower.

Thesis: Do NOT buy the bounce blindly. If you're a contrarian, WAIT for confirmation of a floor — two consecutive green weeks or news of contract acceleration. RSI 18-19 is extreme but these are fallen-angel defense primes, not oversold growth stocks.

KTOS ($61.26, RSI 32), ESLT ($821.96, RSI 39), AVAV ($196.28, RSI 47)

KTOS is the most interesting setup. RSI 32, -45% 3M, but still on golden cross. Kratos specializes in drone targets and autonomous combat aircraft — this is the long-term winner. The selloff is macro/budget noise, not thesis destruction. Entry zone in sight.

ESLT (Elbit Systems, Israeli defense) fell -10% 30D as ceasefire talks reduce urgency pricing. Still golden cross, RSI 39 approaching oversold. Watch for RSI <35 as reload zone.

AVAV (AeroVironment) in death cross, -35% 3M, -53% from 52wk high. The selloff is severe. Needs RSI under 35 and SMA trend reversal before entry is warranted.

EOPSF ($7.47, RSI 57), AVEX ($29.70), KRKNF ($5.91)

EOPSF (Epirus — counter-drone directed energy) +17% 30D, no long-term data. The product story is compelling (microwave weapons) but this is pre-revenue. Watch only.

DFEN ($59.15, RSI 36) — the defense leveraged ETF is down -27% 3M and -40% from 52wk high. This is the clearest signal the sector is in macro downtrend. Do not use as a "cheap defense entry" — it's a decay vehicle.

• Is the LMT/NOC selloff budget-cut driven (temporary) or reflects a structural shift away from legacy platforms (permanent)?
• AVEX — what is this ticker? Need to identify the company before sizing.
• When does DOGE/budget clarity come? That's the single trigger for LMT/NOC bounce.