Drone Defense Scan
Scan
Drone Defense Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 26 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-04-28-drone-defense.mdscan slugdrone-defensesource typescan-archive
Defense primes deeply oversold (LMT RSI 18.8, NOC RSI 19.6 — capitulation territory) while drone OEMs underperform (AVAV -54% from high, KTOS -54% from high). Counter-drone laser (LASR) is the standout — strong-up +40% 3M. ITA defense ETF basing.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mixed — primes in extreme oversold (LMT/NOC at RSI ~19), drone OEMs in deep drawdown, but laser counter-drone (LASR) and Israeli defense (ESLT) holding up |
| Leaders | LASR (+40% 3M, +677% 1y, strong-up), ESLT (+16% 3M, +106% 1y), RTX (only prime that's strong-up, +59% 1y, near 52wk high), EOPSF (+26% 30D bounce) |
| Laggards | LMT ($512, RSI 18.8 capitulation, -26% from high), NOC ($578, RSI 19.6, -25% from high), KTOS (-43% 3M, RSI 33.9), AVAV (-34% 3M, -54% from high), DFEN (-25.4% 3M leveraged ETF) |
| Key insight | The defense reset is two stories — primes are being repriced (budget pressures, contract delays — RSI 18-19 is rare capitulation territory) while drone-specific names are in their own bear (KTOS, AVAV both -54% from high). Counter-drone laser stands alone with LASR up +677% 1y. ITA ETF (-13.7% from high) just sleepy. |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | $192.34 | 44.4 | -0.2% | -9.59% | +8.69% | -34.40% | -53.97% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| AVEX | $29.90 | — | — | -9.95% | +11.03% | +11.03% | -29.38% | neutral | 🔍 Research |
| KTOS | $61.66 | 33.9 ↓ | -11.3% | -9.83% | -5.55% | -42.99% | -53.99% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| EOPSF | $6.91 | 49.4 | -0.3% | -1.37% | +25.87% | +10.74% | -17.64% | neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| LASR | $65.78 | 48.4 | -0.6% | -4.85% | +21.81% | +39.63% | -18.05% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| ESLT | $834.05 | 41.9 | -5.6% | -4.55% | +2.23% | +15.68% | -17.91% | weak-down | 🔒 Hold |
| LMT | $512.29 | 18.8 ↓ | -13.1% | -10.38% | -14.41% | -17.27% | -25.97% | down | 🔍 Research |
| RTX | $201.41 | 53.7 | +1.8% | +2.36% | -2.26% | +1.63% | -6.10% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| NOC | $577.82 | 19.6 ↓ | -11.6% | -7.26% | -13.96% | -16.64% | -25.35% | down | 🔍 Research |
| DFEN | $59.50 | 36.4 ↓ | -13.2% | -14.22% | +4.85% | -25.44% | -39.13% | down | ⚠️ Avoid (3x lev) |
| ITA | $216.21 | 37.4 | -4.1% | -4.77% | +2.57% | -7.06% | -13.74% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| KRKNF | $5.67 | 40.2 | -7.1% | -6.22% | +4.04% | -9.71% | -30.26% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Strong-Up (Working)
- LASR ($65.78, RSI 48.4, +40% 3M, +677% 1y) — counter-drone laser leader. nLight is the standout name in this cohort. +61.5% above SMA200, golden cross. The cohort's only strong-up offensive name.
- RTX ($201.41, RSI 53.7, near 52wk high) — Raytheon, only prime in strong-up. Diversified missile/munitions. +59% 1y.
Tier 2 — Holding Steady
- ESLT ($834.05, +106% 1y, +318% 2y) — Elbit Systems (Israel). Weak-down on the daily but big multi-year monster. Geopolitical premium baked in.
Tier 3 — Capitulation Candidates (Primes at RSI ~19)
- LMT ($512.29, RSI 18.8, -25.97% from high) — Lockheed at extreme oversold. Down -10.38% in last 7D, -14.4% 30D. RSI <20 is rare capitulation territory.
- NOC ($577.82, RSI 19.6, -25.35% from high) — Northrop also extreme oversold. -14% 30D.
- Note: both still in "down" trend with golden cross intact, so this is oversold within a longer up-cycle, not a broken thesis.
Tier 4 — Drone OEM Bear
- AVAV ($192.34, RSI 44.4, -54% from high, -34.4% 3M) — AeroVironment, drone leader. Strong-down with deathcross.
- KTOS ($61.66, RSI 33.9, -54% from high, -43% 3M) — Kratos. Strong-down with deathcross. 3-month decline is the worst in the cohort.
- EOPSF ($6.91, +25.9% 30D bounce) — Israeli drone OEM (Elbit-adjacent). Rebounding off lows.
- AVEX ($29.90, +11% 30D) — too new for technicals, neutral trend.
- KRKNF ($5.67, weak-down) — Kraken, +1011% 5y but currently -30% from high.
Tier 5 — Defense ETFs
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | $512.29 | <$520 | 18.8 ↓ | -14.41% | Extreme oversold prime, multi-year compounder, dividend payer. Best contrarian entry in the cohort. |
| NOC | $577.82 | <$590 | 19.6 ↓ | -13.96% | Same setup as LMT — capitulation oversold, not broken thesis. |
| ITA | $216.21 | $210-220 | 37.4 | +2.57% | Defense ETF cooling, hold-of-cohort exposure trade. |
| KTOS | $61.66 | wait for $55 | 33.9 ↓ | -5.55% | Strong-down + deathcross — wait for trend reversal, don't catch falling knife. |
| AVAV | $192.34 | wait for $180 | 44.4 | +8.69% | Strong-down + deathcross — bounced 30D but broader downtrend. |
| EOPSF | $6.91 | $6.50-7.00 | 49.4 | +25.87% | Bouncing off lows; drone OEM with Israeli exposure. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | LASR, RTX, ESLT | Strong-up or near-highs, thesis intact |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | LMT, NOC | RSI 18-19 capitulation in primes — historic entry zones if thesis holds |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVAV, KTOS, ITA, EOPSF, KRKNF, AVEX | Drone OEM bear; need stabilization or trend reversal |
| ⚠️ AVOID | DFEN | 3x leveraged ETF in deep drawdown — leverage decay risk |
What Changed (vs March/April defense scans)
- Primes capitulated — LMT and NOC both fell into RSI <20 territory. -14% 30D each. This is the deepest defensive sector pullback in months.
- RTX broke away from primes — only prime in strong-up. -2.3% 30D vs LMT/NOC -14%. Diversification (commercial aerospace + defense) paying off.
- Drone OEM bear continues — KTOS and AVAV both at -54% from high. KTOS's -43% 3M is the worst in cohort. The drone-pure-play thesis is being tested.
- LASR keeps running — +40% 3M, +677% 1y. Counter-drone laser is the premium pricing within the broader defense pullback.
- EOPSF bouncing — +26% 30D off lows. Israeli drone OEM benefits from Middle East tension.
- ESLT cooling but intact — Israeli defense leader weak-down (-4.55% 7D) but still +106% 1y. Geopolitical premium digesting.
- DFEN leveraged ETF in trouble — -25.4% 3M and -39% from high. The 3x leverage's drawdown decay is showing.
- ITA basing — broad defense ETF -7% 3M, RSI 37, but only -13.7% from high. Probably the cleanest sector exposure trade right now.
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanDrone & Defense Scan May 29 ScanDrone & Defense Scan Apr 13 ScanDrone Defense Jun 16 ScanDrone & Defense Scan Jun 20 ScanDrone / Defense Scan Jun 25 ScanDrone Defense Scan Jun 26 ScanDrone Defense Scan Jul 7 ScanDrone Defense Scan Jul 11 ScanDrone Defense Scan Jul 17 ScanDrone Defense Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.