Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
The autonomous-trace discoveries are CRUSHING IT — ATEYY +43% 30D, AMKR +73% 30D, ASX +44% 30D, KLIC +34% 30D, WOLF +32% 30D, MP +35% 30D. The semiconductor packaging/back-end + rare earths cluster is the alpha pocket of the year.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Parabolic — 6 of 9 tracked names up 30%+ in 30 days |
| Key insight | Back-end semi (AMKR, ASX, ATEYY, KLIC) running on AI-packaging demand; the trace called this 6 weeks early |
| Method validated | Convergence-scored autonomous traces are surfacing real winners well before our standard scans pick them up |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi | Trend | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMT | $39.24 | 56.7 | +2.6% | +1.23% | +12.86% | +13.28% | -6.6% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| CRS | $428.14 | 55.5 | +1.0% | -4.76% | +15.49% | +37.94% | -6.8% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| MP | $61.70 | 53.6 | +6.4% | -4.86% | +35.34% | -0.74% | -38.5% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| TDY | $655.99 | 58.4 | +4.4% | +3.01% | +1.60% | +16.61% | -5.4% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| WOLF | $24.15 | 67.3 | +32.4% | +25.30% | +31.68% | +23.91% | -34.0% | neutral | ⚠️ Overbought |
| ATEYY | $181.89 | 57.7 | +10.0% | +14.41% | +43.38% | +4.22% | -7.9% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| KLIC | $82.98 | 63.4 | +7.1% | +1.46% | +34.29% | +41.44% | -7.4% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| AMKR | $71.36 | 67.0 | +17.0% | +4.55% | +72.99% | +43.01% | -9.9% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| ASX | $30.08 | 69.6 | +12.9% | +3.56% | +43.99% | +52.07% | -6.9% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
ALMTF and BESI: no price data — illiquid foreign listings, monitor only
Tier Analysis
Parabolic Cluster (semi back-end + materials): AMKR (RSI 67, +85% above SMA200), ASX (RSI 70, +83% above SMA200), ATEYY (RSI 58, +44% above SMA200), KLIC (RSI 63, +65% above SMA200). All four golden cross + strong-up + huge YoY alpha (AMKR +265, ASX +210, ATEYY +278, KLIC +122). The AI-packaging/CoWoS-adjacent thesis is delivering.
Compounders Holding Up: CRS (+1110% 5Y), KMT (+101% 1Y), TDY (+42% 1Y). All strong-up with golden cross. CRS especially absurd — specialty alloys for jet engines.
Volatile/Watch: MP +35% month but still weak-up trend (death cross), -38.5% from high. Rare earths political-trade with whippy price action. WOLF up huge (+32% month) but RSI 67 with no SMA200 reading — still in technical recovery, treat as speculative bounce.
No data: ALMTF, BESI — foreign listings without good US OHLC. Names worth tracking via news.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY | $655.99 | 58.4 | +1.6% | Best risk/reward — strong-up, only -5.4% from high, hasn't ripped yet |
| KMT | $39.24 | 56.7 | +12.9% | Tooling supplier with +101% 1Y alpha, modest extension above SMA20 |
| MP | $61.70 | 53.6 | +35.3% | Rare earths, but still -38% from high — wait for trend confirmation |
| CRS | $428.14 | 55.5 | +15.5% | Specialty alloys, multi-year compounder; some pullback acceptable |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | ATEYY, KLIC, KMT, CRS, TDY | Strong-up + golden cross, structural AI-packaging/specialty thesis intact |
| ⚠️ OVERBOUGHT | AMKR (RSI 67, +73% 30D), ASX (RSI 70, +44% 30D), WOLF (RSI 67, +32% 30D) | Don't chase — wait for pullback to SMA20 |
| 🔍 WATCH | MP | +35% bounce but death cross still present; needs SMA200 reclaim |
| 📊 MONITOR | ALMTF, BESI | Foreign listings, no clean OHLC — track via news + earnings |
Trace Methodology Read-Through
The autonomous research trace called these names 6+ weeks ago when most were not in standard watchlists. Six of nine tickers now show 30%+ 30-day moves — far above any other watchlist surfaced this scan. Paradigm validation:
- Supply-chain tracing works when you start with physics (advanced packaging, rare earths, specialty alloys for AI/defense) and trace down to choke-point suppliers.
- Convergence-scoring matters: AMKR + ASX + ATEYY + KLIC all surfaced from the same advanced-packaging trace — and they all moved together. The cluster is the signal.
- MP rare earths is the political-trade leg — convergent with multiple Chinese export-restriction theses but still trades like a meme name.
This scan should reinforce the case for paradigm-scoreboard tracking and for keeping these autonomously-discovered tickers as a permanent watchlist (vs. ad-hoc).
What Changed vs Apr 10
- AMKR up +72.99% 30D — that's a once-a-year move. Trace was right, way before standard ai-infra picks rotated.
- ASX +44% 30D, ATEYY +43% 30D, KLIC +34% 30D — the back-end semi cluster moved as a block.
- WOLF awoke: +25% week, +32% month after long death-cross slump. SMA200 still missing — treat as bounce, not trend yet.
- MP +35% month on rare-earth headlines — but technicals (-38% from high, death cross) say not confirmed.
- CRS continues to compound: +15.5% month on the long-running specialty-alloy thesis.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| 4 of 4 advanced-packaging picks (AMKR, ASX, ATEYY, KLIC) up 34-73% in 30 days | The trace methodology surfaces real cluster moves — methodology pays |
| AMKR +85% above SMA200 + RSI 67 | Don't chase here, but don't sell either; this is mid-cycle of a longer move |
| MP up 35% month but still death-cross + 38% from high | Bouncy headline-trade — only enter on SMA200 reclaim |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Could have leaned harder on AMKR/ASX/ATEYY when they first hit watchlist | When 4 names from same trace cluster all show strong-up + golden cross, position-size accordingly |
Open Questions
- Does the back-end semi cluster keep running into earnings, or does +43-73% 30D moves invite a 15-20% drawdown?
- ALMTF/BESI: how do we get tradeable exposure to the European/foreign back-end names without OHLC? (BESI ADR? Direct broker?)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.