Reason: All four names remain flat-to-negative on 1-year change with negative 1-year alpha - still the genuinely broken cohort on the desk. COST has newly deteriorated: 1-year change flipped negative at -4.2% (was +0.05%) and it now sits 4.6% below its 200-day (was -1.5%). TJX remains the most oversold (RSI 22.3, was 22.7) and has worsened further across every window - 1-year change -6.34% (was -1.46%), alpha -24.99 (was -21.33). WMT bounced off its RSI low but stays 9.7% below its 200-day. YUM's trend was downgraded to strong-down.

Tape Read

$TJX: price $132.08, RSI 22.3 (still deeply oversold, roughly unchanged from 22.7), death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 1D -0.08%, 7D -2.26% (roughly flat), 30D -17.41% (roughly flat vs -16.4%), -22.31% off its 52-week high (worse than -20.52%) — 14.6% below its 200-day average (vs 200-day -14.6, worse than -12.9%), 1-year change -6.34% (worse than -1.46%), 1-year alpha -24.99 (worse than -21.33): the deterioration flagged last cycle has continued; the level to watch remains its 200-day. $COST is this cycle's new deterioration: price $915.74, RSI 38.1, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime basing, thesis unrated, 1D -1.04%, 7D -3.21% (worse than -0.21%), 30D -2.79%, -16.49% off its high (worse than -13.77%) — 1-year change has flipped negative at -4.2% (was +0.05%), 1-year alpha -22.85 (worse than -19.82), and it now sits 4.6% below its 200-day (vs 200-day -4.6, worse than -1.5%): a genuinely flat-to-negative year has turned into a confirmed negative one. $WMT: price $107.14, RSI 45.7 (bounced off 33.2), death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 1D -1.18%, 7D +3.91% (up from -0.58%), -20.73% off its high (improved from -23.73%) — 9.7% below its 200-day (improved from -13.1%), 1-year change +6.15% (roughly flat vs +7.26%), 1-year alpha -12.5 (roughly flat vs -12.61): a short-window bounce off oversold, still below its 200-day. $YUM: price $150.71, RSI 48.2, death-crossed, trend strong-down (downgraded from weak-up), regime basing, thesis unrated, 1D -1.2%, 7D -2.03% (down from +0.56%), -11.42% off its high (worse than -9.57%) — 2.7% below its 200-day (worse than -0.6%), 1-year change +4.9% (roughly flat vs +5.77%), 1-year alpha -13.75 (roughly flat vs -14.1): near-flat and lagging the market, its trend tag downgraded this cycle. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — retail.

• $TJX — PASS: RSI 22.3 (still deeply oversold), 14.6% below its 200-day, 1-year change -6.34%, 1-year alpha -24.99 — the deterioration has continued.
• $COST — PASS (newly worse): 1-year change flipped negative at -4.2% (was +0.05%), 1-year alpha -22.85, now 4.6% below its 200-day (was -1.5%) — a genuine new deterioration.
• $WMT — PASS: 9.7% below its 200-day, 1-year change +6.15%, 1-year alpha -12.5 — a short-window bounce, but still below the line.
• $YUM — PASS: trend downgraded to strong-down, 2.7% below its 200-day, 1-year alpha -13.75 — near-flat and lagging, the least-bad print but weaker than last cycle.

Lead pick: No name in this basket clears a promote, and the cohort has gotten worse, not better. $COST is this cycle's clearest new deterioration — its 1-year change flipped from roughly flat to genuinely negative, and it now sits below its 200-day where it was previously right at the line. $TJX remains the desk's most oversold and structurally worst name in the group, worsening again across every window.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — retail.