Investigations

121 events · latest Oct 9, 2026

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Oct 9 investigation Dispersion re-measure, 2026-Q3: single-name moves eased, the index eased more

Oct 9 investigation Investigation — blind rederivation spot check week ending 2026-10-09 MPWR POWI TSM +7

Oct 5 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-10-02: the same names, passed by the same rules AMD P MXL +22

Sep 30 investigation Rates fired two of the September 6 risk rows; the tape never crossed its own lines

Sep 28 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-09-25 LINK-USD AVAX-USD DOT-USD +17

Sep 27 investigation Oracle and Project Jupiter: a cash-timing risk, with first loss still conditional ORCL

Sep 21 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-09-18: we saw both, and our rules sent us home MU SNDK DRAM +10

Sep 8 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-09-04 (written on the Sept 8 corpus) MU SIL COHR +7

Sep 6 investigation Memory and electricity remain primary; commercial proof decides the bench

Sep 6 investigation Names read — Campaign 1 MU NBIS IREN +13

Sep 6 investigation Index bases hold; memory rebounds while financing stays costly

Sep 6 investigation Campaign scope review: a smaller working set

Sep 6 investigation Tuesday September 8 flagship — prepared Read

Sep 6 investigation Campaign 1 — execution report and procedure review

Aug 31 investigation Investigation — Why SIVEF broke after its August 27 Q2 report SIVEF

Aug 31 investigation Investigation — Why NOW rallied during the August 27-28 software re-rate NOW CRM

Aug 25 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-08-21 (written on the Aug 25 corpus) TEAM U PATH +11

Aug 17 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-08-14 (written on the Aug 17 corpus) CBRS SMCI AAOI +5

Aug 11 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-08-08 (written on the Aug 11 corpus) ATKR IOVA ERO +6

Jul 31 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-07-31 SOXS LAD SSPC +7

Jul 26 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-07-24 TXG CERT VG +6

Jul 19 investigation Thesis-tag reopen sweep + omission-loop backfill (overnight build, 2026-07-19) MU ARM BRBR +4

Jul 19 investigation Stopped-out June verdicts re-examined + the HUBS flip EWY PL RKLB +2

Jul 19 investigation Optical-lane filing reads (2026-07-19): three standing questions answered from the documents KLIC AXTI COHR +1

Jul 19 investigation ARM — Reopen Re-Examination (July 2026) ARM

Jul 18 investigation Investigation — sell-side regime read: is the AI melt-up real demand or a bubble top MU SNDK STX +10

Jul 18 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-07-17 PYPL MPC DK +4

Jul 13 investigation Miss Autopsy — week ending 2026-07-10 TXG ABSI LABU +6

Jul 13 investigation The memory selloff is an ASP repricing — and the $26.5B raise is the tell SNDK MU SKHY +5

Jul 13 investigation The Hormuz toll: the market is pricing a fee Washington calls illegal USO BNO XOM +7

Jul 6 investigation Investigation — Zoom (ZM): Anthropic-stake re-rating vs a flat-revenue cash cow — decomposing the 2026 round-trip ZM

Jul 6 investigation Investigation — SK Hynix debuts on Nasdaq as SKHY (~Jul 10): what a record $29.4B ADR means, the wonky Seoul tape, and why the HBM monopoly is US-listing at all MU ASML

Jul 6 investigation Investigation — Neoclouds: the official desk stance CRWV NBIS IREN +4

Jul 6 investigation Investigation — the AI buildout has two physical layers, and the market prices them very differently GEV ETN NEE +8

Jul 5 investigation Investigation — Miss autopsy #1: the 30-day movers we didn't own KLAC MKSI ICHR +7

Jul 3 investigation Investigation — Rederivation RL round 1: blind agents rederive 5 of 9 influencer calls from our own data AMZN CRWD HLIT +5

Jul 3 investigation Investigation — Rederivation benchmark: can the engine re-derive our follows' best calls? MU SNDK STX +7

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Post-beat-decline pattern across optical-supercycle Wave 1 COHR LITE FN +4

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — NVDL MSTU spread structural tell wrapper-collapse terminal NVDL MSTU MSTX +1

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Neocloud demand absorption vs AI capex digestion NBIS IREN CRWV +3

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — LNG supply chain beyond oil liquefaction shipping regas GTLS BKR APD +3

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Iran war second and third order effects beyond oil FRO INSW DHT +3

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Helium supply chain for semiconductor fabs LIN APD GTLS +5

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Cross-thematic-basket RSI-breadth standing-watch trigger refinement HACK BUG XBI +2

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — Copper supply chain electrification bottleneck FCX SCCO TECK +4

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — aibottlenecks 113-name book coverage diff vs watchlists JCI NTAP

Jul 1 investigation Investigation — AI power infrastructure beyond generation grid buildout MTZ PRIM EME +1

Jun 30 investigation Investigation — BOT (RoboStrategy) primary-source holdings verification — N-2 + N-CSRS confirm the humanoid basket, but a 434% premium to $7.34 NAV is the real signal BOT

Jun 29 investigation Investigation — Memory supercycle first-principles validation MU SNDK STX +4

Jun 29 investigation Investigation — IBB at all-time highs: breadth decomposition GILD VRTX AMGN +7

Jun 28 investigation Investigation — Is quantum computing actually working yet? IONQ RGTI QBTS +4

Jun 28 investigation Investigation — MMMTwealth 20-longs list triage AAOI LLY OUST +13

Jun 25 investigation Investigation — Quantum-compute cohort first-pass triage — real-vs-vaporware across the 7 pure-plays (IONQ RGTI QBTS QUBT INFQ ARQQ LAES) IONQ RGTI QBTS +4

Jun 25 investigation Investigation — AI-compute-shortage flagship cohort EDGAR financial audit — 13 names across 4 layers (chips/CPU, optical, power, nuclear) AVGO MRVL ALAB +10

Jun 18 investigation Investigation — FAU / CPO bottleneck layer — FOCI / HIMX / Nextronics coverage + Serenity forward-call calibration

Jun 18 investigation Investigation — China structural-discount — VIE/CCP/macro triptych: a multiple problem, not an earnings problem KWEB FXI

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — SpaceX post-IPO study — 4% float melt-up vs the dated staggered-lockup overhang SPCX ARKX

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — SpaceX deal-confirmed forced-flow reconciliation + June-18 index-inclusion pre-position SPCX

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — OpenAI IPO net-flow scaffold (parametric, pre-S-1) MSFT

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — memory-tier bifurcation: NVIDIA halving a mid memory tier MU SNDK STX +2

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — Government-compute / federal-AI integrators — Aschenbrenner Ch. IV coverage gap + dossier-urgency correction PLTR GD

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — DRAM parabolic-launch monitor — status update 2 (4 refined triggers re-evaluated) DRAM MU STX +4

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — Confidential-compute / secure-datacenter hardware — Aschenbrenner Ch. IIIb coverage-gap map NVDA INTC AMD +4

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — Anthropic IPO net-flow scaffold (parametric, pre-S-1) AMZN GOOGL MSFT

Jun 17 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO lane, desk pass #3 (post-IPO drain-vs-halo tell) SPCX NVDA MSFT +17

Jun 16 investigation Investigation — Spruce Pine high-purity quartz (HPQ) monopoly — is the single-point-of-failure thesis real, and is there any listed trade or only a risk map? ENTG

Jun 16 investigation Investigation — HVDC cable-laying vessel bottleneck trace

Jun 5 investigation Investigation — PSIX (Power Solutions Intl) distributed-power-gen leg verify — broken sub-thesis or contaminated proxy? PSIX

Jun 5 investigation Investigation — Aschenbrenner research dossier — essay-mined lanes, the pair-trade put book, 13F track-record calibration, and cross-manager convergence BE SNDK CRWV +23

Jun 5 investigation Investigation — Aschenbrenner essay vs 13F scorecard — what the Situational Awareness predictions have actually done, and the new megacap put overlay BE SNDK CRWV +21

Jun 4 investigation Investigation — SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels / supply-chain investable map SPCX ECHO NVDA +9

Jun 4 investigation Investigation — SpaceX (SPCX) original S-1 full read, section by section SPCX TSLA ECHO +4

Jun 4 investigation Investigation — Screwworm catalyst confirmed — reopening the retired cattle-disease/beef thesis; ELAN is the named-product play ELAN ZTS IDXX +4

Jun 4 investigation Investigation — Beef supply-shock / protein-rotation complex — hurt-vs-alternative map; the rotation is NOT in the tape yet (whole complex sold off together) ELAN ZTS IDXX +17

Jun 4 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO lane desk-pass #2 — T-8 pre-position tape: halo unwinding (sell-the-news), no drain, deal priced RKLB FLY ASTS +13

Jun 3 investigation Investigation — SpaceX net-flow model — forced passive index demand vs staggered lockup supply (parametric) SPCX NVDA MSFT +5

Jun 3 investigation Investigation — Nearline HDD storage chokepoint — demand corroborated, supply chain mapped, durable vs bubble and coverage decision STX WDC MU +8

Jun 3 investigation Investigation — Following the money up Dell's supply chain — where the alpha moved and what's durable vs cyclical bubble DELL MU SNDK +24

Jun 3 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO macro-buffer check — is the system's absorptive capacity actually drained? SPCX SPY QQQ +2

Jun 2 investigation Investigation — xAI (SpaceX AI segment) S-1/A crosswalk read — first application of the AI-lab S-1 thesis crosswalk playbook SPCX NVDA MSFT +7

Jun 2 investigation Investigation — Large IPO winners — the positive base rate: which big IPOs did NOT drop for a decade, and what they shared SPCX NVDA AMZN +3

Jun 2 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO Fast Entry lane desk pass — methodology gate update and pre-event tape classification SPCX NVDA MSFT +20

Jun 2 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO issuance-surge base rate — does an IPO wave at all-time highs predict a market top SPCX QQQ SPY +6

Jun 2 investigation Investigation — AI mega-IPO Fast Entry liquidity regime parent lane SPCX NVDA MSFT +20

Jun 1 investigation Trump policy / ticker catalyst event study PLTR DELL IBM +2

Jun 1 investigation Nokia networking rerate source check NOK NVDA LMT

May 30 investigation Investigation — R32-D EOW synthesis (2026-05-29 EOW cycle) PSIX MU SNDK +1

May 30 investigation Investigation — BANB.SW × cultural-arbitrage cross-paradigm: does "Looksmaxxing demand" sharpen the GLP-1 peptide supply-chain thesis? BANB.SW LZAGY HIMS

May 29 investigation Investigation — Tungsten APT pricing pass-through and ALMU-Sangdong off-take check KMT ALMU

May 29 investigation Investigation — TER vs ATEYY memory-test comparative — sister deep-dive or stay context? TER ATEYY MU

May 29 investigation Investigation — KMT FY2025 10-K + FY26 Q3 10-Q segment / customer / OCF / capex primary read KMT

May 29 investigation Investigation — BAM-BN carried-interest split — primary filing read BAM BN

May 29 investigation Investigation — AI-data-center → ESS → LFP sub-thesis spike ALB FLNC TSLA

May 28 investigation Investigation — BIGB null-data — Roundhill BIG Bank ETF delisted, removed from etf-monster-universe BIGB

May 28 investigation Investigation — BAM payout-ratio 116% sustainability — primary-filing read BAM

May 28 investigation Investigation — ARM per-chip royalty empirical estimate ARM

May 27 investigation Investigation — KEYS (Keysight) coverage decision — quantum control-electronics / T&M test-layer placement KEYS ATEYY ENTG +3

May 27 investigation Investigation — Coatue Spring 2026 letter — five follow-ups AVGO COHR MRVL +17

May 27 investigation Investigation — BRUN (Boost Run) coverage decision — 5th NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud peer of NBIS/CRWV BRUN WLAC CRWV +2

May 27 investigation Investigation — Anthropic-SpaceX $15B/yr Cloud Services Contract SPCX GOOGL AMZN +9

May 26 investigation Investigation — Weird-ETF desk consolidation MSTU MSTX MSTY +29

May 26 investigation Investigation — SpaceX IPO Deep Dive: Separate Trades + the Oxygen Question SPCX ECHO STM +46

May 26 investigation First-Principles Validation — Quantum Computing as an Investable Thesis (2026) IONQ RGTI QBTS +8

May 26 investigation First-Principles Validation — Asklivermore-Network 4-Layer Nuclear Thesis CCJ UEC UUUU +14

May 26 investigation Investigation — `monster-discover` ALB coverage postmortem ALB SQM LIT +8

May 26 investigation Merck quantum molecular-docking — verify pass IBM IONQ RGTI +4

May 26 investigation Investigation — Theme-tracking coverage audit: $DRAM, $IGV, $HACK, $ARM, $EWY DRAM IGV HACK +4

May 26 investigation Investigation — $DRAM parabolic-launch monitor status update DRAM MU HY9H.F +3

May 26 investigation Investigation — $CRS FY2025 10-K customer-concentration primary-source read CRS ATI HWM

May 26 investigation CPU Shortage Thesis — First-Principles Derivation AMD INTC ARM +12

May 26 investigation Investigation — BOT (RoboStrategy, Inc.) CEF verification + humanoid-robotics coverage decision BOT VPG MOG-A

May 26 investigation Investigation — APR (KRX:278470) K-Beauty cultural-thesis adjacency check APR

May 25 investigation Investigation — Tungsten Supply Chain Blind-Test Verdict ALMU KMT CRS

May 25 investigation Investigation — Quantum computing physical bottlenecks blind-test verdict OXINF LIN KEYS +6

May 25 investigation Investigation — Optical supercycle WHY: what specifically drove the CIEN/COHR demand acceleration CIEN COHR LITE +8

May 25 investigation Investigation — Military drone supply-chain blind-test verdict AVAV KTOS ESLT +11

May 25 investigation Investigation — HBM/Memory Supercycle blind-test verdict BESIY ATEYY KLIC +6

May 25 investigation Investigation — HBM foreign-primary / ADR coverage backfill decision BESIY ATEYY KLIC +2

May 25 investigation Investigation — GLP-1 / peptide-economy manufacturing blind-test verdict WAT DHR WST +7

Apr 13 investigation Investigation: The Three-Market Divergence USO SPY QQQ +2

Apr 13 investigation Investigation: Theo Loveday's Three Theses SPY QQQ DIA +3