Retail

Update

Retail

LOW entered oversold RSI 25, -7.5% week. HD approaching oversold RSI 31, -4.7% week. DECK reversed -9.1% week from RSI 75 new 52wk high. NKE dropped -6.7% week to $59.40. DPZ resilient +1.7% 30D. LULU -2.9% week.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 BROAD WEAKNESS — Home improvement capitulating (LOW RSI 25, HD RSI 31). Footwear reversing (DECK -9.1% from 52wk high, NKE -6.7%). Only DPZ holding positive momentum.
Key insight LOW RSI 25 after -7.5% week — best entry signal in theme. HD RSI 31 one step behind. DECK reversed from new 52wk high RSI 75 — fell $10 in a week. NKE losing turnaround momentum at $59.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
BUY LOW RSI 25, -6.4% below SMA — oversold home improvement, durable compounder
📈 ACCUMULATE HD RSI 31, -4.0% below SMA — approaching oversold, same home improvement thesis
🔍 WATCH NKE $59.40, -6.7% week, -6.9% 30D — turnaround thesis at risk, verify
🔍 WATCH CMG $36.92, +1.2% week — resilient but -7.5% 30D
🔒 HOLD DPZ $408.38, -1.4% week but near 52wk high — franchise durable
🔒 HOLD ANF RSI 56 (stale 02/04) — verify current price
🔒 HOLD CROX RSI 62 (stale 02/26) — cooling from overbought, confirm
🔒 HOLD LULU $174.27, -2.9% week — athleisure thesis intact
⚠️ AVOID DECK $109.89, -9.1% week — reversed from RSI 75 new 52wk high

Data (Validated 2026-03-03)

Stock Price 7D 30D 52wkHi RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status Action
LOW $257.77 -7.5% -6.2% $287.39 25 $275.36 -6.4% 🔴 Oversold ✅ Buy
HD $366.57 -4.7% -3.8% $391.05 31 $381.80 -4.0% 🟡 Approaching oversold 📈 Accumulate
NKE $59.40 -6.7% -6.9% $65.18 🟡 Declining 🔍 Watch
CMG $36.92 +1.2% -7.5% $39.93 🟡 Near SMA 🔍 Watch
LULU $174.27 -2.9% -2.1% $187.30 🟡 Holding 🔒 Hold
DPZ $408.38 -1.4% +1.7% $414.20 🟢 Near 52wk high 🔒 Hold
ANF $105.56 +9.4% -15.1% $129.85 56 $104.20 +1.3% 🟢 Above SMA (stale 02/04) 🔒 Hold
CROX $93.68 -2.9% +11.6% $100.04 62 $90.90 +3.1% 🟢 Above SMA (stale 02/26) 🔒 Hold
DECK $109.89 -9.1% -2.1% $120.94 🔴 Reversing from 52wk high ⚠️ Avoid

Note: ANF data as of 02/04, CROX as of 02/26 — stale. NKE, CMG, LULU, DPZ, DECK have price only (no RSI/SMA in feed).


Key Changes vs 02/26

Stock 02/26 Price 03/03 Price Move Note
LOW $264.70 $257.77 -2.6% RSI 41→25 — crossed into oversold
HD $377.62 $366.57 -2.9% RSI 46→31 — rapidly weakening
DECK $119.46 $109.89 -8.0% Reversed from RSI 75 new 52wk high — momentum destroyed
NKE $64.16 $59.40 -7.4% Accelerating decline — turnaround in doubt
LULU $185.43 $174.27 -6.0% Gave back RSI 64 gains
CMG $37.92 $36.92 -2.6% Mild softness, -7.5% 30D
DPZ $396.53 $408.38 +3.0% Only retail name in positive territory

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
LOW RSI 25 after -7.5% week Sector-wide home improvement weakness — macro concern (housing/tariffs)
HD RSI 31 trailing LOW by one week Both names at/near oversold — sector entry, not stock-picking
DECK -9.1% week from RSI 75 52wk high Momentum peak was precisely at RSI 75 — textbook trim signal missed

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
No trim target on DECK at RSI 75 / 52wk high Set trim limits at RSI 70+ and 52wk highs proactively
NKE turnaround held too long Turnaround thesis needs price validation — not just RSI

Open Questions

  • LOW RSI 25: is -6.2% 30D home improvement weakness tariff-driven or housing slowdown?
  • HD RSI 31: buy simultaneously with LOW or wait for RSI 28-30?
  • NKE $59 (-6.7% week) — is $55 the next support or does turnaround re-assert?
  • DECK: is $109 a support level or does mean-reversion continue toward $100?
10 events

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