Retail

Update

Retail

LOW continued decline to $250.22 (-2.9%). HD dropped to $353.56 (-3.6%). NKE fell to $56.53 (-4.8%). CMG -4.4% to $35.29. LULU -2.6% to $169.76. DPZ new 52wk high $415.78. DECK stale at $109.89 (03/03). ANF stale 02/04.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 BROAD WEAKNESS DEEPENING — Home improvement still declining (LOW, HD). NKE accelerating breakdown. CMG now weakening. LULU continuing decline. Only DPZ positive at new 52wk high.
Key insight LOW $250.22 deepening from RSI 25 — entering extreme oversold territory. HD $353.56 likely below RSI 30 now. NKE $56.53 breaking key support — turnaround at serious risk. DPZ $415.78 only bright spot at new highs.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
BUY LOW $250.22, likely RSI < 25 — oversold home improvement, durable compounder
📈 ACCUMULATE HD $353.56, likely RSI < 30 — deep oversold, same thesis
🔍 WATCH NKE $56.53, -4.8% vs 03/03 — turnaround thesis at serious risk
🔍 WATCH CMG $35.29, -4.4% vs 03/03 — now weakening
🔒 HOLD DPZ $415.78, new 52wk high — franchise durable
🔒 HOLD ANF RSI 56 (stale 02/04) — verify current price
🔒 HOLD CROX RSI 62 (stale 02/26) — confirm
🔒 HOLD LULU $169.76, -2.6% — athleisure thesis holding but weak
⚠️ AVOID DECK $109.89 (stale 03/03) — momentum broken from RSI 75 highs

Data (Validated 2026-03-10)

Stock Price 7D 30D 52wkHi RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status Action
LOW $250.22 -2.9% $287.39 🔴 Deep oversold ✅ Buy
HD $353.56 -3.6% $391.05 🔴 Continued decline 📈 Accumulate
NKE $56.53 -4.8% $65.18 🔴 Breaking down 🔍 Watch
CMG $35.29 -4.4% $39.93 🟡 Weakening 🔍 Watch
LULU $169.76 -2.6% $187.30 🟡 Declining 🔒 Hold
DPZ $415.78 +1.8% $415.78 🟢 New 52wk high 🔒 Hold
ANF $105.56 -15.1% $129.85 56 $104.20 +1.3% 🟢 Above SMA (stale 02/04) 🔒 Hold
CROX $93.68 +11.6% $100.04 62 $90.90 +3.1% 🟢 Above SMA (stale 02/26) 🔒 Hold
DECK $109.89 $120.94 🔴 Stale 03/03 ⚠️ Avoid

Note: ANF data as of 02/04, CROX as of 02/26, DECK as of 03/03 — stale. Most names price-only.


Key Changes vs 03/03

Stock 03/03 Price 03/10 Price Move Note
LOW $257.77 $250.22 -2.9% Continued decline from RSI 25 — deeper oversold
HD $366.57 $353.56 -3.6% Accelerating weakness — likely RSI < 30
NKE $59.40 $56.53 -4.8% Breaking prior support — worst mover in theme
CMG $36.92 $35.29 -4.4% Joining the weakness — consumer spending concern
LULU $174.27 $169.76 -2.6% Continued decline
DPZ $408.38 $415.78 +1.8% Only positive name — new 52wk high

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
LOW/HD both still declining Home improvement weakness deepening — macro/tariff driven
NKE -4.8% from $59.40 to $56.53 Turnaround thesis breaking — $55 is last major support
DPZ new 52wk high while retail collapses Franchise model defensive — flight to quality in consumer
CMG now -4.4% — joining the weakness Consumer spending weakness broadening beyond home improvement

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Not trimming DECK at RSI 75 / 52wk high Set trim limits at RSI 70+ and 52wk highs proactively
NKE turnaround held too long Turnaround thesis needs price validation, not hope

Open Questions

  • LOW $250 — how deep does oversold go? Is $240 the capitulation level?
  • HD $354 — buy simultaneously with LOW or wait for RSI data?
  • NKE $56.53 — is $55 the last support or does it break?
  • CMG -4.4% — is consumer spending broadly weakening?
10 events

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