ETF Universe Scan
ETF Universe Scan
Defensive sectors (XLP, XLE, XLI) are overbought while tech-heavy ETFs drift lower — the risk-off rotation persists but is maturing, with energy and staples now at extreme RSI levels that historically precede mean reversion.
Quick Snapshot
| Overall Signal | 🟡 Defensive Rotation Maturing — risk-off still dominant but overbought pockets forming in defensives |
| Leaders | XLP 🟢 (RSI 80), XLE 🟢 (RSI 79), XLI 🟢 (RSI 64), EEM 🟢 (RSI 69), SLV 🟢 |
| Laggards | ARKK 🔴 (RSI 24), SMH 🔴, QQQ 🟡, VOO 🟡 |
| Surprise | ARKK RSI 24 — deep capitulation territory for the innovation ETF |
| Absent Data | TAN, ICLN, URA, JETS, KWEB, EWZ, FXI, INDA, HYG, LQD — no OHLC data available |
| Data Freshness | VOO/QQQ/SMH/XBI/SLV updated 03/09; many sector ETFs last bar 02/03–02/09 (stale 4-5 weeks) |
Price Table — All Tickers by Category
Signal key: 🟢 Bullish | 🟡 Neutral/Watch | 🔴 Bearish
Broad Market Index ETFs
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOO | $623.80 | — | — | — | -1.2% | -2.0% | 🟡 |
| QQQ | $607.76 | — | — | — | -0.1% | -0.6% | 🟡 |
| IWM | $263.99 | 62.6 | $262.92 | +0.4% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 🟢 |
| DIA | $493.70 | 52.5 | $492.00 | +0.4% | +0.7% | +0.8% | 🟡 |
VOO and QQQ both drifting lower — not oversold, just grinding down. IWM continues to outperform with RSI 62.6 above SMA20, confirming the small-cap rotation is intact. DIA is the steadiest of the bunch at RSI 53, Dow names holding better than Nasdaq.
Innovation / Thematic ETFs
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | $74.36 | 24 | $80.28 | -7.4% | -7.0% | -8.6% | 🔴 |
| ARKG | $30.62 | 42.9 | $31.74 | -3.5% | -5.7% | +2.1% | 🟡 |
ARKK at RSI 24 is in capitulation territory. Down 8.6% over 30D with price 7.4% below SMA20. This is the deepest oversold reading in the entire scan. Innovation/disruptive growth is getting demolished. ARKG (biotech innovation) holding up marginally better at RSI 43 but still below SMA.
Sector ETFs
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $143.69 | 52.9 | $144.23 | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.7% | 🟡 |
| XLF | $53.72 | 45.2 | $54.19 | -0.9% | +1.4% | -4.3% | 🟡 |
| XLE | $51.15 | 78.7 | $48.34 | +5.8% | +3.0% | +9.1% | 🟠 |
| XLV | $155.55 | 45.8 | $156.75 | -0.8% | +0.1% | +0.3% | 🟡 |
| XLI | $169.10 | 63.5 | $164.42 | +2.8% | +2.4% | +5.8% | 🟢 |
| XLP | $85.96 | 80.2 | $81.71 | +5.2% | +3.4% | +11.1% | 🟠 |
| XLU | $43.26 | 54.8 | $42.91 | +0.8% | -0.4% | +1.3% | 🟡 |
| XLRE | $40.64 | 46.8 | $41.08 | -1.1% | -1.5% | +0.5% | 🟡 |
| XBI | $127.12 | — | — | — | +0.5% | +1.4% | 🟡 |
| SMH | $394.37 | — | — | — | -3.0% | -2.6% | 🔴 |
| SOXX | $352.69 | 64.7 | $339.43 | +3.9% | +2.8% | +10.9% | 🟢 |
XLP (Consumer Staples) at RSI 80 and XLE (Energy) at RSI 79 are the most overbought sectors. Both are 5%+ above SMA20 — classic defensive hiding. XLI (Industrials) quietly strong at RSI 64. XLF (Financials) dipping to RSI 45, down 4.3% over 30D — banks feeling macro headwinds. SMH still bleeding, -3% on the week.
Commodities / Alternatives
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDX | $92.44 | 45.0 | $99.92 | -7.5% | -14.4% | +0.3% | 🔴 |
| SLV | $78.26 | — | — | — | -4.1% | +6.6% | 🟡 |
| EEM | $60.55 | 68.7 | $58.96 | +2.7% | +2.1% | +6.0% | 🟢 |
GDX is the biggest laggard relative to its commodity — gold miners still 7.5% below SMA with RSI 45 while gold spot holds up. SLV pulled back 4% on the week but still up 6.6% over 30D. EEM (emerging markets) is the stealth winner at RSI 69, up 6% over 30D — China/EM rally is real.
Bonds / Fixed Income
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $89.43 | — | — | — | -0.2% | +3.7% | 🟡 |
| VNQ | $92.41 | 59.4 | $90.77 | +1.8% | +2.8% | +3.3% | 🟢 |
TLT up 3.7% over 30D — flight to safety in long-duration Treasuries is working. VNQ (REITs) quietly above SMA at RSI 59, benefiting from the rate-cut narrative. Both are steady defensive plays.
Tier Analysis — RSI Buckets
🚨 Capitulation Zone (RSI < 25)
| Ticker | RSI | 30D% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | 24 | -8.6% | Innovation ETF in freefall; Cathie Wood names getting crushed |
ARKK is the only ETF in full capitulation. At RSI 24, it's approaching the kind of levels that preceded 15-25% bounces in 2022 and 2024. The question is whether this is structural (AI replacing disruptive growth narrative) or cyclical.
🟡 Oversold (RSI 25–40)
| Ticker | RSI | Category | 30D% | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKG | 42.9 | Biotech Innovation | +2.1% | Genomics still out of favor but not cratering |
| XLF | 45.2 | Financials | -4.3% | Banks weakening — rate uncertainty |
| GDX | 45.0 | Gold Miners | +0.3% | Lagging gold spot badly |
| XLV | 45.8 | Healthcare | +0.3% | Defensive but not benefiting from rotation |
| XLRE | 46.8 | Real Estate | +0.5% | Neutral, waiting on rate direction |
🟡 Neutral Zone (RSI 40–60)
| Ticker | RSI | Category | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | 52.5 | Broad Market | Steady, unremarkable |
| XLK | 52.9 | Technology | Holding SMA20, no momentum |
| XLU | 54.8 | Utilities | Quiet, slightly above SMA |
| VNQ | 59.4 | REITs | Above SMA, rate-sensitive |
🟠 Overbought (RSI > 60)
| Ticker | RSI | Category | 30D% | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | 62.6 | Small-Caps | 0.0% | Healthy RSI, not overextended |
| XLI | 63.5 | Industrials | +5.8% | Infrastructure/defense spending narrative |
| SOXX | 64.7 | Semiconductors | +10.9% | Stale data — treat with caution |
| EEM | 68.7 | Emerging Markets | +6.0% | EM rally intact but getting stretched |
| XLE | 78.7 | Energy | +9.1% | Energy overbought — mean reversion likely |
| XLP | 80.2 | Consumer Staples | +11.1% | Most overbought sector — don't chase |
XLP at RSI 80 after an 11% monthly gain is the single most stretched trade in the ETF universe. Historically this kind of RSI on a defensive sector ETF leads to 3-5% pullbacks within 2 weeks. Same logic applies to XLE at 79.
Entry Zones
| Setup | Ticker(s) | Trigger | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capitulation Bounce | ARKK | RSI holds 20-24, price stabilizes near $72-74 | Innovation ETF at multi-month oversold extreme; high-risk bounce trade |
| Financials Mean Reversion | XLF | RSI < 40 or price near $52 | Banks overcorrecting; if macro stabilizes, financials snap back first |
| Gold Miner Catch-Up | GDX | RSI < 40 near $88-90 | Miners still massively lagging gold spot — gap closure trade |
| EM Continuation | EEM | Pullback to RSI 55-60 or price near $59 | EM rally has legs if China stimulus continues; don't chase at RSI 69 |
| Defensive Trim | XLP, XLE | RSI > 78; wait for pullback to SMA20 | Overbought defensives — take partial profits, reload lower |
| Small-Cap Ride | IWM | Hold above SMA20 on next dip | Best risk-adjusted index play; RSI healthy, rotation tailwind |
| Bond Duration Play | TLT | Dip to $87-88 | Flight to safety working; add on any pullback |
Action Matrix
| Ticker | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| VOO | 🟡 Hold | Grinding lower, -2% 30D. Hold, no add yet |
| QQQ | 🟡 Watch | Slightly negative, not oversold. Wait for RSI < 35 |
| IWM | 🟢 Hold/Add | Best index play — above SMA, RSI healthy, rotation beneficiary |
| DIA | 🟡 Hold | Dow stability, RSI 53. Unremarkable. |
| ARKK | 🔍 Watch (trade) | RSI 24 = capitulation. Set alert for bounce at $72 |
| ARKG | 🟡 Watch | Below SMA, RSI 43. Genomics thesis needs catalyst |
| XLK | 🟡 Hold | Tech sector neutral; no strong signal either way |
| XLF | 🔍 Watch | Banks dipping, RSI 45. Could become entry if macro worsens |
| XLE | ⚠️ Trim | RSI 79, +9% 30D — overbought, take partial profits |
| XLV | 🟡 Hold | Healthcare flat, RSI 46. Boring = fine |
| XLI | 🟢 Hold | Industrials strong, RSI 64. Ride the infrastructure narrative |
| XLP | ⚠️ Trim | RSI 80, +11% 30D — most overbought ETF, don't chase |
| XLU | 🟡 Hold | Utilities neutral, RSI 55 |
| XLRE | 🟡 Watch | REITs neutral, rate-sensitive |
| XBI | 🟡 Watch | Biotech flat, insufficient RSI data |
| SMH | 🔴 Avoid | Semis still bleeding, -3% weekly |
| SOXX | 🟡 Watch | RSI 65 but stale data — verify before acting |
| GDX | 🔍 Watch (recovery) | Lagging gold by 7.5% — gap closure trade if gold holds |
| SLV | 🟡 Hold | Silver up 6.6% 30D but pulled back on the week |
| EEM | 🟢 Hold | EM rally strong, RSI 69 — don't add, hold existing |
| VNQ | 🟢 Hold | REITs above SMA, RSI 59. Quiet strength |
| TLT | 🟢 Hold/Add | Flight to safety, +3.7% 30D. Treasury rally intact |
What Changed (vs 03/04 scan)
| Signal | 03/04 | 03/10 | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | Not in prior scan | RSI 24 — capitulation | NEW: deepest oversold in universe |
| XLP | Not tracked individually | RSI 80 — most overbought | NEW: defensive melt-up extreme |
| XLE | Not tracked individually | RSI 79 — overbought | NEW: energy overbought |
| IWM | RSI 62.6, 🟢 | RSI 62.6, 🟢 | Unchanged — still the best index |
| SMH | -6.7% weekly | -3.0% weekly | Improved but still negative |
| GDX | RSI 45, -14.4% 7D | RSI 45, -14.4% 7D | Stale data — no change |
| QQQ | RSI 42.6, 🔴 | Drifting, -0.6% 30D | Slightly better, still weak |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| ARKK RSI 24 is the deepest capitulation in the ETF universe | Innovation/disruption narrative is broken short-term; contrarian bounce potential |
| XLP RSI 80 and XLE RSI 79 are historically extreme for defensive sectors | Mean reversion incoming — trim overbought defensives |
| EEM quietly up 6% with RSI 69 | EM/China rally is real and under-owned by most |
| IWM continues to be the best risk-adjusted index play | Small-cap rotation is durable, not noise |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing defensive ETFs at RSI 80+ | Overbought is overbought regardless of "safety" narrative |
Open Questions
Related
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