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Previous version: [2026-03-13-war-perspective.md]

Status: ACTIVE — Thesis intensifying

The Iran conflict remains the single most important driver of global markets. Everything else — tech selloff, gold crash, housing collapse — is downstream of this.

What Changed Since March 13

The war thesis has intensified, not resolved. Key developments:

1. Oil stayed elevated but cooled from peak — USO RSI dropped from 85.9 to 66.1. Still strong-up but no longer parabolic. The extreme overbought has moderated, but prices haven't fallen — they've consolidated at high levels. This is the market digesting the supply shock, not the supply shock ending.

2. Gold crashed — the anomaly — GLD went from RSI ~60 to RSI 15.1 (extreme capitulation). Down -14.5% in 30 days. In a war-driven, stagflationary environment, gold should be rallying. Instead it's in freefall. Three possible explanations:

   • Forced liquidation: Margin calls from equity losses forcing gold sales
   • Dollar squeeze: UUP (dollar) at RSI 61.6, strong-up trend. Dollar strength crushes gold
   • Regime change: The "safe haven" thesis is broken — only the dollar works as safety

3. Equity damage broadened — DIA RSI 25, XLB RSI 24, XLY RSI 28. The selloff has moved beyond tech into industrials, materials, and consumer. This is no longer a sector rotation — it's a broad risk-off event driven by stagflation fears.

4. Housing coll...