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Previous version: [2026-03-24-iran-war-oil.md]

Status: ACTIVE — Thesis grinding on, market fatigue setting in

Narrative arc: Escalation → Grinding stalemate

The Iran conflict remains the dominant macro driver, but the market's response is evolving. We're past the initial shock phase and into the grind — oil stays elevated, equities keep leaking, and the pain is becoming structural rather than acute.

What Changed Since March 24

1. Oil consolidated at extreme levels — USO $117.26, RSI 64 (was 66.1). It's actually cooled slightly from two days ago, but the absolute price level hasn't budged. The Hormuz premium is fully embedded. The market has stopped panicking about oil and started pricing it in — which is almost worse for the broader economy.

2. Gold is recovering from capitulation — GLD $400.64, RSI 30.8 (was 15.1 on Mar 24). This is a massive move — RSI nearly doubled. The extreme forced liquidation is easing. Still deeply oversold vs SMA20 (-11.3%), but the bleeding has slowed. Silver SLV $60.77, RSI 35.6 (was 28.5). GDX $82.36, RSI 33.7 (was 25.5). The precious metals complex is stabilizing after the capitulation event.

3. Energy producers even MORE overbought — EOG RSI 84.2, XOP RSI 82.8, XLE RSI 81.2, COP RSI 81.0, OXY RSI 80.7. These are pushing further into extreme territory. This is where it gets dangerous — the longer they stay this overbought, the more violent...