Retail Scan
Retail Scan
Retail deteriorating broadly — HD and LOW weakening (RSI 46/41, both below SMA), WMT and COST neutral at SMA, TGT surging to RSI 70. Dollar stores DG/DLTR/FIVE have no data. ANF stale but -15% 30D still showing.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 MIXED/WEAKENING — Home improvement pulling back, discount retail (WMT/COST) holding but neutral, TGT breakout. Dollar stores missing data. |
| Leaders | TGT ($115.76, RSI 70), COST ($988.33, RSI 50) — Momentum or holding |
| Laggards | LOW ($264.70, RSI 41, -4.3% vs SMA), ANF ($105.56, RSI 56 stale, -15% 30D) — Weakness or stale |
| No Data | DG, DLTR, FIVE — files not found, cannot assess |
Price Table (Validated 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | $377.62 | -0.3% | -2.3% | 46.0 | $382.25 | -1.2% | 🟡 Below SMA, softening | 🔍 Watch |
| LOW | $264.70 | -4.8% | -4.8% | 41.4 | $276.54 | -4.3% | 🟡 Approaching oversold | 📈 Accumulate |
| ANF | $105.56 | +9.4% | -15.1% | 56.2 | $104.20 | +1.3% | 🟡 Stale data (last 02/04) | 🔍 Watch |
| WMT | $124.73 | -0.1% | +6.0% | 46.6 | $126.64 | -1.5% | 🟡 Neutral, slightly below SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| COST | $988.33 | +0.1% | +1.2% | 49.7 | $986.00 | +0.2% | 🟡 Neutral, at SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| TGT | $115.76 | +1.2% | +6.5% | 69.8 | $108.70 | +6.5% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| DG | — | — | — | — | — | — | ⚠️ No data | — |
| DLTR | — | — | — | — | — | — | ⚠️ No data | — |
| FIVE | — | — | — | — | — | — | ⚠️ No data | — |
Sub-Sector Analysis
Home Improvement (HD, LOW): Deteriorating. HD is below SMA with RSI 46 — no longer the strength signal it showed in Feb. LOW is down 4.8% in 7 days and 4.3% below SMA with RSI 41. Approaching oversold territory — watch for RSI < 35 as a cleaner entry. Housing data weakness likely driving.
Mass Retail / Warehouse (WMT, COST): Neutral and resilient. WMT slightly below SMA but +6% 30D — best 30D performer of the group. COST nearly flat at SMA with RSI 50 — textbook neutral. Both are defensive holdings in a choppy market.
Discount Specialty (TGT): TGT is the outlier momentum play — RSI 70 and +6.5% above SMA. This is a near-overbought signal. The +6.5% 30D gain is solid but the RSI 70 means short-term risk/reward is unfavorable.
Specialty Apparel (ANF): Data stale from 02/04. RSI was 56, slightly above SMA. 30D is -15.1% from early January peak. The 7D shown (+9.4%) may reflect a bounce, but without fresh OHLC data this is unreliable. Needs refresh before acting.
Dollar Stores (DG, DLTR, FIVE): No OHLC data files found. Cannot assess. Add to watchlist for data ingestion.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | RSI Trigger | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 LOW | $258-$268 | RSI < 40 | MEDIUM-HIGH — Home improvement leader. -4.3% below SMA, RSI approaching oversold. Structural housing exposure. |
| 🟡 HD | $372-$382 | RSI < 42 | MEDIUM — Sister name to LOW. At/below SMA — quality entry if RSI continues lower. |
| 🟡 WMT | $122-$126 | RSI < 43 | LOW-MEDIUM — Defensive compounder. Slightly below SMA. Add if broader market sells off. |
| 🔍 ANF | $95-$105 | Fresh data needed | LOW — Stale data. Await updated OHLC before acting. -15% 30D suggests opportunity but needs confirmation. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 🟡 RSI 46 | 🔍 Watch | Below SMA and softening. Wait for RSI < 40 — may reach better entry soon. |
| LOW | 🟡 RSI 41 | 📈 Accumulate | Approaching oversold with -4.3% vs SMA. Best home improvement entry in months. Start small. |
| ANF | 🟡 RSI 56 (stale) | 🔍 Watch | Data from 02/04 — refresh before acting. -15% from Jan peak may create opportunity. |
| WMT | 🟡 RSI 47 | 🔒 Hold | Defensive winner. +6% 30D. No action needed — just hold. |
| COST | 🟡 RSI 50 | 🔒 Hold | Flat and at SMA. Core compounder — no change. |
| TGT | 🟠 RSI 70 | ⚠️ Avoid | Near overbought at +6.5% above SMA. +6.5% 30D — don't chase at these levels. |
| DG | — | 🔍 Watch | No data — need to add OHLC file. Dollar store thesis relevant in weak consumer environment. |
| DLTR | — | 🔍 Watch | No data — same as DG. Dollar stores could be strong in current macro. |
| FIVE | — | 🔍 Watch | No data — Five Below targeting price-sensitive consumer. Needs data. |
What Changed (vs 2026-02-22)
| Stock | Feb-22 RSI | Feb-26 RSI | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 57 | 46.0 | Deteriorated | Dropped 11 RSI points — now below SMA |
| LOW | 66 | 41.4 | Major deterioration | RSI fell 25 points in 4 days — approaching oversold |
| ANF | 56 (stale) | 56.2 (stale) | No change | Data still stale from 02/04 |
| WMT | N/A (new) | 46.6 | New add | Neutral — slightly below SMA |
| COST | N/A (new) | 49.7 | New add | Neutral — at SMA |
| TGT | N/A (new) | 69.8 | New add | Near overbought — approaching RSI 70 |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| LOW fell from RSI 66 to RSI 41 in 4 days | Dramatic reversal — home improvement now approaching oversold, potential contrarian entry |
| HD also fell from RSI 57 to RSI 46 | Sector-wide home improvement weakness, not stock-specific — housing data driving |
| TGT RSI 70 while peers weaken | TGT is bucking the trend — could be earnings catalyst or defensive rotation into discount |
| DG/DLTR/FIVE have no data files | Dollar store thesis is compelling in weak consumer environment — need to add data |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Missing LOW's rapid RSI collapse from 66 to 41 | Fast RSI drops in quality names = opportunity; need daily monitoring not weekly |
| No data for dollar stores | Dollar stores (DG/DLTR/FIVE) are important consumer health indicators — add to data pipeline |
Open Questions
- Is LOW's RSI 41 a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper breakdown? Housing starts data is key.
- TGT at RSI 70 — is this an earnings beat reaction or sector rotation? Need to check recent news.
- Dollar stores: in a consumer-pressured environment, DG/DLTR typically outperform — need fresh data urgently.
- ANF: what is the current price? Data is 22 days stale and unreliable.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.