Watchlist / trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects

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Watchlist / trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects

current roster plus event stream

symbols 7 events 53 latest

Second- and third-order Iran-war exposures across shipping, insurance, pharmaceutical inputs, rare earths, and fertilizer. Research trace from 2026-04-12 with 1 unanimous and 3 strong-convergence findings.

Cumulative return since Jul 16 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.
1D7D30D3M1Y
cohort -0.2%+4.3%+8.7%+6.0%+71.1%
SPY -0.5%-0.1%+4.0%+4.9%+21.4%
Δ +0.2%+4.3%+4.8%+1.1%+49.7%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 6/7 up

trend: 6 up · 0 flat · 1 down · avg RSI 58 · 100% above SMA200 · covered 7/7

contributors

FRO+2.2pp+15.6%
TEVA+2.0pp+13.8%
INSW+1.9pp+13.4%
DHT+1.2pp+8.6%
ICL+1.2pp+8.1%

detractors

ACGL-0.5pp-3.5%
STNG+0.7pp+5.0%

Holdings

ICL $5.46 +8.1% 30d retreating ACGL $97.81 -3.5% 30d in trend TEVA $36.46 +13.8% 30d coming into play STNG $80.33 +5.0% 30d coming into play FRO $42.18 +15.6% 30d in trend INSW $98.36 +13.4% 30d in trend DHT $18.90 +8.6% 30d in trend
FRO $42.18 +2.4% +15.6% +16.6% +120.7% 64 in trend -2.1%
TEVA $36.46 -0.8% +13.8% +7.1% +97.5% 64 coming into play -2.5%
INSW $98.36 +1.4% +13.4% +22.1% +148.0% 64 in trend -1.1%
DHT $18.90 -3.2% +8.6% +9.4% +72.6% 55 in trend -6.4%
ICL $5.46 -1.6% +8.1% -14.3% -11.8% 58 retreating -21.0%
STNG $80.33 +1.2% +5.0% -1.3% +66.0% 58 coming into play -7.5%
ACGL $97.81 -0.9% -3.5% +2.0% +4.7% 45 in trend -8.7%

Feed generated 2026-08-18.