Refreshes · Events
Tickers
Sep 4 refresh CRDO and CIEN both beat and both sell off hard; Broadcom's own call gives the InP/laser-capacity read its loudest voice yet, still second-hand CRDOCIEN
Sep 4 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: the hardware-vs-software rotation goes macro; Broadcom's own call reinforces upstream demand even as its stock fell on the print AMATLRCXASML
Sep 4 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: a rates-driven de-rating hits the neocloud leg as a bloc, then an uneven, crypto-sorted bounce CRWVIRENCIFR +1
Aug 27 refresh EOD Phase 0a refresh: NVIDIA's print reinforces upstream demand again; the equipment layer's rotation-map read cools further across a wider adjacent cluster AMATLRCXASML
Aug 27 refresh EOD Phase 0a refresh: NVIDIA's print reconfirms compute demand cleanly; the neocloud/reseller leg this perspective owns doesn't share in it, and IREN's own 10-K gives the financing-scrutiny question a filed-document instance NVDA
Aug 22 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: metals extend on both short and long horizon while bonds stay the confirmed haven loser; the long-term-average gate closes GLDGDXSIL
Aug 22 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: the hardware layer beneath the cloud is where money rotated out this week; the equipment leg upstream mostly held its long trend MPWRAOSLVICR +1
Aug 22 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: the cooldown that hit the whole AI complex forces a three-way long-horizon split inside the cohort BEGEV
Aug 14 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: AAOI's own earnings-call language and a fresh COHR scorecard both point at the InP-capacity constraint AAOICOHR
Aug 14 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: demand case holds; site-level permitting/delivery risk becomes a named watch item CRWVNBIS
Aug 13 refresh EOD Phase 0a refresh: LITE/COHR commentary points upstream to InP; primary event authority still missing LITECOHR
Aug 13 refresh EOD Phase 0a refresh: upstream compute demand strengthens; direct delivery-side proof remains pending MPWRPOWIAOSL +1
Aug 13 refresh EOD Phase 0a refresh: primary-source neocloud reports verify demand; merchant power supplies the counterexample CRWVNBIS
Jul 31 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: VRT's 10-Q drop is a name-level event; MSFT print reads as upstream demand confirmation VRT
Jul 31 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: the forced-seller mechanism that hit the cohort's own longs gets a name; MSFT print adds a fifth demand confirmation CRWVCORZIREN +1
Jul 28 refresh EOD full-scan Phase 0a refresh: the storage prints this cohort has waited on all cycle are now the week's headline event
Jul 28 refresh EOD full-scan Phase 0a refresh: parent's verdict week reads as upstream demand confirmation, not a direct signal here
Jul 28 refresh EOD full-scan Phase 0a refresh: verdict week opens, weekend Samsung/SK-NVIDIA/Broadcom deals add a fourth demand confirmation CEGGEVTLN
Jul 25 refresh EOW refresh (R-cycle): GOOGL's Q2 capex print confirms demand, splits the tape between spender and supplier GEVBE
Jul 17 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: POWI lands a named NVIDIA reference-design win; Helios/Vera Rubin rack interview names storage as a new co-constraint POWI
Jul 17 refresh EOW Phase 0a refresh: political intervention on scarcity economics becomes a named risk leg (PJM price collar clears short, NY moratorium w/ bring-your-own-power carve-out, microreactor criticality wave) CEGVSTTLN
Jun 26 refresh EOW full-scan refresh — mega-cap leg in correction; cybersec resilient; demote validated AMZNGOOGLNVDA +9
Jun 26 refresh EOW: GLW leads; AXTI sharp derating (event-verify needed); LWLG below VWAP; VWAP froth persists AXTILWLGGLW +2
Jun 26 refresh EOW full-scan refresh — oil capitulates on de-escalation + China demand; depletion binary ~55-60 days out; MONITORING continues USOLNGAPD +2
Jun 26 refresh EOW full-scan refresh — dollar breakout confirms dead-safe-haven; SLV worst week in macro universe; GLD below all SMAs; MONITORING entrenched GLDGDXSLV +2
Jun 26 refresh EOW full-scan refresh — offshore-VIE complex deepens toward capitulation; KWEB↔ASHR spread at widest; ACTIVE + further-discount scenario confirmed KWEBFXIASHR +5
Jun 26 refresh EOW positioning flush materialized; MPWR approaching oversold; AMAT outlier MPWRNVTSON +6
Jun 20 refresh Post-event assessment (T+6 sessions / Day 8): EOW full-scan leg scoring — A INVERTED, B INDETERMINATE-favorable, C CONFIRMED
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a perspective refresh — structural legs intact; Gulf war-premium fading; SpaceX IPO as competing capital signal USO
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh (full re-run, fresh captures) — US-Iran truce: geopolitical-premium leg stress-tested; structural legs hold USO
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh (full re-run, fresh captures) — COHR InP fab groundbreaking + CIEN beat-and-raise + Mizuho CPO confirmation COHRCIEN
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a perspective refresh — SpaceX SPCX IPO reinforces demand engine; cohort pre-confirmation continues; conviction-gradient unchanged LEU
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh — SPCX IPO secondary effect; thesis arc validates NVTSMRAAYAOSL +1
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh (full re-run, fresh captures) — NuttyCLD memory-stack article; Mizuho 800V DC confirmation; Churchill HVDC bottleneck MPWRAOSLVICR
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh — SPCX IPO liquidity event + xAI demand-side confirmation folded in GEV
Jun 16 refresh Phase 0a prose refresh (full re-run, fresh captures) — SPCX social dynamics, CRWV government-investment narrative, NBIS Estonia expansion CRWV
Jun 3 refresh RELEVANCE RE-VERIFY + REFRESH → kept active, priority high→medium (helium core web-verified STILL SHUT; all trade legs dead; eyes-and-ears watch map installed) APDLINLNG +12
May 29 refresh EOW full-scan data refresh — USO off channel-top; broad sector pullback, Canadian premium compressing USOXOMCVX +15
May 20 refresh R20 13F-correction continuity — MSFT distribution-risk observation SURVIVES R19 correction unchanged
May 20 refresh R17 cybersec leg fundamentals hardening — Massive verifies FTNT; CSCO Massive-lag; ZS is the fundamentals weak link FTNTCRWDPANW +2
May 20 refresh R20 13F-correction continuity — SNDK-led hardening, NOT MU-led; smart-money pre-strike positioning sharpened
May 20 refresh R15 strike day 0 minus one — mediation collapsed, Suwon injunction added, publish-gate still held MUSNDKSTX +3
May 20 refresh R20 13F-correction continuity — miner AI/HPC-pivot evidence still useful but MIXED at the name level (HUT contested same quarter)
May 20 refresh R15 continuity — no new tape on VST/TLN, RSI changes are window-roll, posture unchanged CEGVSTTLN +2
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — concentrated longs holding; naming-fork resolved GOOGLAMZNNVDA +5
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — USO at the top of the channel; thesis working, OIH cooled from the trim zone USOXOMCVX +10
May 19 refresh R13 supply-shock check resolved — framing correction: acute war shock, NOT structural base case; "$200 closure" framing disproven USOXLEOIH +2
May 19 refresh R14 strike-window staging — cohort 7D red is profit-taking, NOT a demand-side break; publish-gate still held MUSNDKSTX +2
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — silver-pivot leg re-graded to contested (macro week, not a thesis break) GLDGDXSLV +2
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — Stage 1 re-pressurized, cascade intact, Stage 4 still locked CFADMDBA +3
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — miner-leadership leg re-graded; thesis maturing into a stock-picker's market BTCMSTRRIOT +4
May 19 refresh R14 IPP-leg deeper oversold — R13 frame confirmed and sharpening, posture unchanged CEGVSTTLN +2
May 19 refresh R13 IPP de-rate cause resolved — valuation unwind + PJM capacity collar + FERC co-location uncertainty, NOT a demand collapse CEGVSTTLN +3
May 19 refresh R12 perspective-refresh — cohort bifurcation: generation leg holds, IPP leg de-rated BECORZGEV +4
May 6 refresh Coverage gap closure: STM, MRAAY, AIXA.DE, VECO added to ai-power.json STMMRAAYAIXA.DE +1
May 1 refresh Friday EOW update — late-cycle pattern confirmed (services > producers > integrateds) USOXOMCVX +15
May 1 refresh Friday EOW update — HIMS pivot held, LLY-leader-bounce complicates frame HIMSLLYNVO +2